Feature

A north-south coach service – or reopen the railway?

26 Jul 2026 7 minute read

Professor Stuart Cole CBE, Emeritus Professor of Transport Economics and Policy, Prifysgol de Cymru / University of South Wales

The new Plaid Cymru government has committed to introducing a long-distance coach service between Bangor and Carmarthen alongside TrawsCymru’s existing bus operations.

The commitment formed part of the party’s First 100 Days programme to improve north-south public transport and serve parts of Canolbarth (mid Wales) that have been without a railway for nearly 60 years.

However, the government must adopt a part-commercial, part-socially necessary approach to the service. As it differs from the existing TrawsCymru network, a separate brand incorporating “Cymru” in its title might also be worth considering.

Market for the service

Marketing any new business, including a coach service, is based on the four Ps – product, place, price and promotion.

Pre-market testing, as with all new passenger services, begins by deciding the route to be operated, the places to be served and the interchange points with connecting services.

This long-distance service must meet the needs of local residents while also attracting students, other passengers seeking quicker and cheaper journeys within Wales, and tourists wishing to enjoy the spectacular rural scenery along the route.

There is a market for this service on both demand and public policy grounds. However, Transport Minister Mark Hooper will no doubt face criticism from the usual suspects about there being “hardly any passengers” while demand builds. TfW can, however, point to the steady growth in TrawsCymru patronage since 2012.

Although provided by TfW, this is intended to operate as a commercial coach service, similar to those offered by long-distance coach operators, railway companies and airlines. None offers free travel, despite, for example, the railways being state-controlled, and the Welsh Government has correctly indicated that concessionary passes will not be valid in order to avoid drawing passengers away from existing TrawsCymru services.

As a commercial coach service, it is likely to use market segmentation and differential pricing. Discounts should, of course, be available for regular travellers, similar to UK railcards, coach passes and air miles, as well as for other market segments such as off-peak passengers.

When ministers initially refused to accept concessionary passes on the TrawsCymru T9 Cardiff Airport service, they faced a strong public backlash and ultimately reversed the decision.

However, that was a bus service and therefore fell within the Welsh Government’s concessionary bus travel policy.

Passengers using local stopping services will continue to be served by the TrawsCymru T1 and T2 routes, where concessionary passes remain valid.

Travellers will also compare fares with other modes of transport, particularly the perceived lower cost of travelling by car and rail fares, which are likely to be considerably higher.

Once the market has been established, the service will require effective promotion, including online real-time passenger information. An estimated £2 million has been included in the 2026-27 supplementary budget to operate and promote the new service.

Demand

Demand for this service is unlikely to make it commercially viable on its own. Even with relatively high fares, price and cross-elasticity effects could encourage travellers to remain in their cars or continue using existing bus services, reducing revenue below commercially viable levels.

For the service to be both affordable and accessible, while also achieving wider objectives such as reducing car use and supporting environmental goals, ongoing revenue support will almost certainly be required. Had there been a genuinely profitable market, sophisticated demand forecasting models using population data, competitor pricing and tourism trends to optimise services would almost certainly have identified the opportunity long ago. Companies such as National Express or FlixBus would already be operating such a route.

Journey time, frequency and reliability

Journey time, rather than distance, is now one of the main factors influencing travel choices.

The predicted journey time between Bangor and Carmarthen using the new route is four hours and 30 minutes. Comparable journey times are:

TrawsCymru T1C: 5 hours 45 minutes
Train (via Cardiff): 6 hours 8 minutes
Car: 3 hours 30 minutes

Many other intermediate journeys across mid Wales will also become significantly quicker using the new coach service.

Reliability and punctuality should also benefit from the experience gained operating the existing TrawsCymru network.

A two-hourly frequency represents an attractive offer for passengers and is more frequent than many comparable long-distance coach services.

The service and route

A coach service of this type was first proposed in 2010, when this columnist was asked by the then Welsh Assembly Government to analyse bus services in rural Wales and identify potential improvements. During that work, this columnist created the TrawsCymru brand and led the team that established the initial six-route TrawsCymru network two years later, alongside the Bwcabus (now Fflecsi) demand-responsive feeder service.

A rural fflecsi Bwcabus service. Photo TfW

The TrawsCymru Express was conceived as a long-distance, limited-stop coach network operating less frequently than the bus network, but offering considerably shorter end-to-end journey times by serving only principal centres and key transport interchanges.

The new service is planned to call at Bangor railway station, Caernarfon, Dolgellau, Machynlleth, Aberystwyth University and the town’s bus and railway interchange, Aberaeron bus station, Llandysul and Carmarthen railway station.

As part of the procurement process, TfW will have specified the operational requirements when inviting tenders from potential operators. These could include options such as extending some journeys to Holyhead to serve ferry foot passengers. Detailed commercial negotiations will inevitably take place between TfW and the companies bidding to operate the service.

Vehicle details

Plans for the new service are already well advanced, with the vehicles having been specified in detail. Welsh Government has procured eight high-quality Volvo/MCV eVoTor coaches, each costing, by my estimate, up to £300,000. The coaches are built in Egypt on the successful Volvo B8R chassis, with bodywork and interiors manufactured by MCV.

The coaches will offer a range of on-board facilities, including toilets – the lack of which has been a frequent criticism of TrawsCymru buses – together with four-seat tables, which proved popular on the original TrawsCymru services, reclining seats, increased seat pitch and full accessibility for disabled passengers.

As this column has often argued, the shop window for bus and coach services is the humble bus shelter. Too often it is little more than a basic shelter. If this new express service is to project the same high-quality image as its vehicles, it also needs high-quality waiting facilities, as has been achieved across much of the TrawsCymru network.

VOLVO eVoTor coach. Photo Geof Sheppard is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

In place of rail

As this column has argued previously, calls to reopen the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth railway are unlikely to become reality on cost and market demand grounds for at least another 40 years.

In the meantime, this new coach service provides the most realistic opportunity to improve north-south public transport. It can deliver a high-quality, limited-stop service over the most practical route while offering journey times and operating costs that are likely to be acceptable to both passengers and taxpayers.

Although it will require continuing public support, the proposed service represents a pragmatic and affordable way of improving connectivity between north and south Wales. Rather than waiting decades for the possibility of a railway reopening, passengers could begin benefiting from significantly faster and more comfortable journeys within the lifetime of the current Senedd.

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