Can Cardiff Airport take flight?
Professor Stuart Cole, CBE. Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy), Prifysgol de Cymru / University of South Wales
Even before the Welsh Government bought Cardiff Airport in 2013 for £52 million, the former RAF Roose airfield has attracted controversy.
Since the take over however, and amid falling passenger numbers which saw the airport attract just 859,805 passengers by 2022, making it the 20th busiest airport in the UK, it has become a hot political topic, particularly with regard to the amount of money that has been spent to keep it afloat.
Financial position
Up to August 2024, Welsh Government financial contributions to Cardiff Airport totalled £179.6m. This covered the purchase price (£67.9m), grants (£41.9m) and loans (£69.8m) which includes £26.2m in interest and £42.6m covering loans written off in March 2021. (Source: Senedd Research, 2024 ).
Comments on wasting government resources are misguided because Wales must have an international airport.
The Welsh Government’s international strategy for 2020 – 25 is:
- To raise Wales connectivity with the rest of the world
- To grow the economy through exports and inward investment
- Wales to be a globally responsible nation
- Cardiff Airport becoming a UK centre for low carbon aviation. sustainable adventure tourism.
Management of Cardiff Airport
‘The government is preparing a long-term plan for the airport subject to commercial sensitivity. Consultants were providing updated estimates of the airport’s current and potential economic benefit so that ‘we have a long-term trajectory’. (Jeremy Miles, Senedd Plenary July 2024).
‘There was an objective to improve connectivity by developing routes identified in Welsh Government’s international strategy as impacting economic growth e.g. the middle east, south-east Asia and north America’ (Ken Skates, July 2024).
The Government agrees that it ‘owns the airport but says it is managed in an independent commercial manner and makes independent decisions on a wholly commercial basis and is liable for its own actions.
Welsh Government have no influence over the airport’s commercial and operating matters.
‘The airport’s trajectory for growth using the recovery package provided by the Government is intended to make Cardiff Airport become sustainable and profitable in the future so securing the long-term future of the airport as a vital piece of the national infrastructure. The Government will assess the effectiveness of its investment once Cardiff Airport has increased its passenger demand levels’. (Jonathan Moody, Head of Aviation, Ports and Logistics, Welsh Government – March 2023; email answer shown to this column).
Surely one might expect an investor or majority shareholder in any business to discuss the day-to-day activities’ achievement of financial well-being on a regular basis; not just when success has been achieved.
Juxtaposed, these statements suggest a fuzzy demarcation line in decision making between Ministers and officials alongside the airport management whilst trying to achieve both socio-political and commercial objectives. And government interference is not new in nationalised industry contexts (this column in Nation, 28 July 2024).
Recovery to pre-Covid passenger levels will not be easy. Many airports are 30% down and London City Airport worse than that. Cardiff airport’s profitability has similarly suffered.
Comparison with Bristol Airport
Bristol Airport has bucked the downward passenger trend significantly through improved AirportFlyer passenger links with eight buses hourly to/from Bristol bus and rail stations and other new services. That frequency reduces passenger anxiety and is a huge step in encouraging public transport use. At the same time it has set a NetZero decarbonisation target by 2030 for all internal transport and infrastructure operations.
Bristol Airport, privately owned (by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan) is investing £400m over five years to accommodate two million passengers of which £60m is for a new car park and Public Transport Interchange with sixteen bus / coach bays and a rebuilt internal road system.
This is not an argument for privatising Cardiff Airport. The need for an airport is reflected in Welsh Government’s strategy and without state support it would by now have closed.
Cardiff Airport’s potential
However, this has to be seen in the context of Cardiff Airport’s potential market at its present location or within a rationale for creating a mega-regional airport in place of the proposed third runway at Heathrow.
Bristol Airport is no better connected to the motorway or main line rail network than Cardiff Airport. However, opportunities have been missed to provide such facilities which encourage passengers and is a criterion for airlines in choosing an airport.
In 2008 the Welsh Government supported a new station on the Vale of Glamorgan line near Porthkerry with a dedicated bus link to the Airport or (in 2009) a railway line from it to a new, partly private sector funded, airport station (I advised on both). A new road link from the M4 running past Bonvilston and Pendoylan was also evaluated. Back in 1991, the House of Common Welsh Affairs Committee also recommended a similar investment.
A 2013 study by south Wales transport and business academics (including myself), Welsh Government and business organisations evaluated a plan for constructing Heathrow’s Terminal 6 as a regional international ‘hub’ at Cardiff with a 250-mph trains and 35-minute journey time railway link. The ‘Western Gateway’ airport estimates showed a cost of £28 bn and 14 million passengers.
If any of these had been followed up by the UK and Welsh governments Cardiff might now be the dominant airport.
Cardiff Airport has few scheduled routes unlike other small population countries with international hubs – Schiphol (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) , Dublin, and Keflavik (51 kms from Iceland’s capital Reykjavik). Building an international hub away from major financial centres is not without precedent. The new Warsaw hub (CPK) at Lotz will open in 2032, create 150,000 jobs and be the economic growth mega-project for a declined old-industry area – textiles there / coal and steel here.
Heathrow ‘extension’ in south-east Wales
Chancellor Rachel Reaves plan for a third runway and sixth terminal at Heathrow Airport makes little sense when one considers the overheated economy of south-east England, the high price of land, the over-congested roads and over pollution around Heathrow. A report from National Air Traffic Control made clear that the ‘air space over south-east England cannot support any new routes without serious implications’; that was in 2002. The position is now worse.
Developing the existing Cardiff Airport or creating a new international hub in south-east Wales may answer the need for an economic generator with an estimated 26,000 new jobs It would imply the closure of Cardiff and Bristol airports but both have extensive land banks to help finance a new south-east Wales hub. As with HM Treasury’s Heathrow scheme it would be privately funded. This vision in the context of large properly run sustainable airports are an attraction for long term investors.
Welsh Government has shown considerable vision (one might say bravery) in funding the valley lines Metro £1.1 bn electrification investment. The airport could be its next move particularly in view of the much-vaunted relationship between the Welsh and UK governments.
Cardiff Airport (international code: CWL ,which phonetically in Welsh is pronounced ‘cool’, should be living up to that.
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Cardiff is a great airport and has a huge choice of flights connecting Wales to the world and the Gov was absolutely right to buy it. Who needs Heathrow? Sadly, like the proposed M4 road it is being used as a political tool to gain votes.
A great airport? No rail connection, poor road access and when you do get there if it is raining you get drenched before you reach the shelter of the terminal, all the money that has been spent and not even a sheltered walkway from the drop off point let alone the car parks.
Most of the connections to anywhere further afield than the Continent are only achievable via a connecting flight to Amsterdam.
I would disagree. Roads to Bristol are worse and I have the inconvenience of travelling an extra two hours to get there. I would be mad not to support my local airport.
Cardiff has a great choice of flights to holiday destinations in the Mediterranean and Canaries, but fewer flights of economic value to Wales.
A great choice you must be joking !! It’s a very limited selection for an airport may I suggest you look up other regional airports in the UK and see how the choice is far far greater. The government has done nothing to improve the choice in all the time they have been owners
I live 70 miles west of Swansea, which is why I use KLM’s twice-daily flights from Cardiff to Schiphol Amsterdam , using the latter as a hub to the rest of the world. For north America, I can fly Cardiff to Dublin and use the Irish airport as a hub to Canada and the USA. Although goodness knows when I’ll be flying to Trump’s USA again. I never bother to go to Heathrow or Gatwick. I have been known to use Bristol to fly to Italy, but road access to Bristol is still a deterrent for me.
It may take a little longer but I would still rather use Heathrow as at least I don’t have to change planes as is the case with Amsterdam.Plus you have multiple transport options from Paddington,The Heathrow Express, The Elizabeth Line and even The Tube if you want to save some pennies. I see no sense in having a railway station that doesn’t even serve an Airport as is the case with Cardiff. For Transatlantic flights Cardiff has the longest runway in Western Britain yet you still can’t get direct transatlantic flights New York, Washington or Toronto unless you want to… Read more »
Sadly without being too rude I suggest you read up the truth facts on the Welsh Government and the complete waste of people’s taxes in buying this airport. The most obvious clue is no one has any commercial/business qualifications or experience. Just think how the money used would have help many in Wales.
If you check the facts you’ll see it adds more every single year to the Welsh economy than it cost to buy thanks to the BA maintenance facility. That alone makes it worth the investment before you even start to look at the economic development potential. All successful economic regions need an airport. Are you opposed to south Wales being a successful economic region?
BA Maintenance doesn’t offer any commercial flights
“Cardiff Airport is estimated to generate over £200m in Gross Value Added (GVA) annually and supports thousands of jobs in the south Wales”
https://nation.cymru/news/long-term-strategy-and-new-routes-for-cardiff-airport-revealed/
Your long weekend in the Balearics isn’t the point.
“Recovery to pre-Covid passenger levels will not be easy. Many airports are 30% down and London City Airport worse than that. Cardiff airport’s profitability has similarly suffered”. The truth is we (as in the uk and welsh govts) scared people too well during the pandemic. If you spend a year telling people not to use airports, trains and buses – backed up by legal threats – then dont be surprised if the effects of those strictures on the public psyche stay around for far longer than the pandemic itself (and passenger numbers continue to lag behind pre pandemic levels in… Read more »
Correlation does not imply causation. Johnson’s oven ready deal also kicked in at this time which left everyone except billionaires poorer.
Indeed correlation may not always imply causation but the contrast in passenger numbers pre-pandemic and post-pandemic speak for themselves (and anyone who thinks there is no causation at play here is living in cloud cuckoo land….and hasnt learned any lessons from the pandemic)
The US, Singapore and France are back to pre-covid levels which wouldn’t have happened if covid rather than geopolitics was the problem. Many other European countries are still down due to high energy bills and inflation reducing disposable income so it’s more complex than a new fear of flying.
I would disagree. I am following on Facebook @Cardiffairportflightsanddeals and there are more scheduled flights showing there is a huge appetite in Wales for air travel and recovery after COVID. People are on the go again!
It was reported in November that the Canadians are trying to sell Bristol. Presumably if there are no decent offers they can look at alternative uses for the land, in a region with the most expensive housing outside London, to deliver the return on investment their pensioners rightly demand.
The Welsh Labour Government should ask NO DEMAND the London Labour Government that Wales be treated fairly i suppose that would be a NO Tory and Labour in London have done sod all for Wales except TAKE TAKE never give we should have a level playing field where Cardiff can compete mainly with Bristol by London taking the tax Cardiff have to charge both Parties have said it will Damage Bristol but its alright to damage Cardiff where are these Labour M P,s and Labour A Ms that are supposed to represent the interests of Wales
The airport needs much better road and rail connections to Cardiff and the UK if it is to develop and prosper. A metro link or LRT to Cardiff would be a start.
I would disagree as the roads to Bristol are worse and this deficit is only being used as a political tool. Where as in reality it’s not the case.
I can get to Bristol Airport in 40 minutes from Pontypool, and stay overnight 10 minutes from the airport…and use it 8 times each year to our home in Spain!!!
Bristol have more flights per day than Cardiff in 2 months!!!
How metro didn’t include a direct to the airport is incredible. It’s on the VOG line which connects directly to valleys lines rather than mainline (interchange being Cardiff Central). Real home goal that.
Cardiff Crossrail should run some services to the airport.
Seeing the Welsh Conservatives were quite content for Wales to be only the second country on this planet not to have an International Airport you can say Welsh Labour in their 26 years in government purchase Cardiff International Airport was a positive step for Wales. And I know the amount the initially £52 spent to buy the facility off its Spanish owners was contentious, especially the continuous financial support, but the Welsh Conservatives criticised money spent buying Cardiff and money spent upgrading facilities and attracting new carriers but we’re happy to see public money spent to bail out the failing… Read more »
You will never have a successful International airport with B class type road access, not my words but the Head of BMI before they pulled out.
A railway station that doesn’t even serve the terminal building.
BMI,Wizz Air,Swiss Air and Air France said goodbye to the airport.
The Icelandic carrier Play only used it for the Nations League Football tournament.
Qatar returned to every UK airport post pandemic except Cardiff.
The only positive I can think of was Air Lingus allowing pre USA immigration checks at Dublin airport and even this has disappeared.
And how are BMI doing these days?
TfW need to deliver the promised 30 minute service on the VoG line. Services also need to start earlier so they can be used to reach the 6am flights.
I agree that ground transportation to the airport should be on a 24/7 basis to accommodate late night arrivals and check in deadlines for early morning departures. Revive the T9 link between Central Station and the airport terminal building used before the pandemic, give it through ticketing onto the national rail network like the Bristol Flyer does.
An excellent article. The debate needs to focus on the whole of Wales and be aligned with the Senedds green vision. Airbus Uk’s Hawarden Airport near Wrexham would be more profitable if it allowed passenger flights to an airline such as Tui; plus then people who need flights from North Wales and Chester / Cheshire would save time and carbon travelling that if they had flown from Liverpool or Manchester Airports. March 2006 boeing moved its’ cargo hub from Copenhagen to Reykjavik to be better located for cargo between Europe and their North American factories. In 1990s i worked on… Read more »
Poor access by road and a smaller catchment area could be the reason for Bristol airport doing better than Cardiff airport (though Bristol is no easier to get to than Cardiff and the catchment areas are not really that much different). However, the main reason is Cardiff airport is dearer to fly from than Bristol, and this is due to the tax subsidies Bristol gets for being closer to the London airports. This means many from South Wales also oft to fly from Bristol rather than Cardiff. Cardiff is a great airport but it fights an uphill battle from the… Read more »
Bristol gets no tax subsidies, whereas Cardiff gets a huge bung from the Welsh assembly. Please don’t lie.
Bristol was state owned and taxpayer funded for 40 years during which time it achieved incumbent advantage that’s now cemented by APD.
The devolution of Air Passenger Duty to Wales was blocked by the Tories even though they devolved it to Scotland and Northern Ireland, solely to protect the interests of Bristol Airport.
The devolution of Air Passenger Duty to Wales was blocked by the Tories even though they devolved it to Scotland and Northern Ireland, solely to protect the interests of Bristol Airport.
There’s no reason not to devolve it now because Johnson’s Internal Market Act would prevent the Welsh Gov disadvantaging England. But long-haul APD could still be dropped without harming Bristol since they have no scheduled long-haul services.
“Wales must have an international airport”. Why? Why when virtually no-one north of Merthyr would use it (Manchester and Birmingham alternatives)? Why when virtually everyone down South uses Bristol far more? Why when it’s fundamentally in the wrong place for an international airport transport links notwithstanding?
It’s well placed for the Cardiff Capital Region and Swansea Bay City Region which is two thirds of the Welsh population.
I agree. North Walians use Manchester or Liverpool, Mid Walians use Birmingam, South West Walians have a long trip to any airport, so the incremental distance to Bristol instead of Cardiff doesn’t make much difference. It is only those in South East Wales who would be significantly affected if Cardiff airport disappeared.
The population of South Wales is 2 million, how is that not viable to sustain an airport? Devon and Cornwall has a combined population of 1.4 million yet Exeter isn’t failing. Northern Ireland has 2 million yet traffic in Belfast has gone up, and they are within easy reach of a perfectly convenient hub at Dublin.
I’m pretty sure if CWL had the destinations then logically it would be the preferred airport among the majority of South Walians, as well as international tourists coming to visit South Wales and spending their money.
I think you have answered your own question – it doesn’t have the destinations nor does that growth look remotely likely. Others are entitled to their opinion of course; but Bristol is just as close for anyone from the east side of Cardiff to the bridge. So the 2 million catchment area doesn’t really exist. This debate is a mix of political aspiration (we must have our own airport) versus commercial reality. But never a good mix.
If Bristol was Manchester you might have an argument but it’s not because there are no scheduled long-haul flights which means Heathrow is south Wales’s economic development airport. That’s 200 miles away from Carmarthen. Only someone who doesn’t want growth thinks that’s ok.
We can agree to differ; but I rather doubt that Cardiff Airport would make a significant contribution to growth in Carmarthen!
I don’t get those that argue there’s no point watering the lawn when the grass is brown and patchy. Do they imagine the green shoots will magically appear with no intervention, or are they actually afraid of a flourishing garden.
A taxi to the city centre from the airport cost me £40 a couple of weeks ago (the airport rail shuttle bus had not arrived). A bus from Bristol Airport to Cardiff centre cost me £15 a few weeks earlier.
Cardiff airport is always my first choice despite knowing I’ll be paying more to get to and from.
Incidentally I tried to hire a car for next month but the car hire closes at six and the flight arrives at seven thirty. I live in hope that the bus will arrive this time.
It’s £7.40 and 44 minutes from Central Station to the terminal by train and connecting shuttle, which is half the cost and time of the bus to Lulsgate Bottom.
I agree Barry, I’ve made the bus/train connection many times, it’s reasonably priced and runs hourly. However on two occasions in two years the bus link has not been at the airport to transfer me to the station. It’s too far to walk and a taxi is the only other option. A direct bus service to city centre, scheduled to coincide with flight departures and arrivals is all that’s needed.
The express bus should return. Even an hourly service would be fine as long as it ran early and late enough to cover all flights.
Cardiff airport’s biggest problem is that it is owned by an organisation that is ideologically opposed to increased use of fossil fuels. Sustainable aviation fuel is still at least a decade away from being available in meaningful quantities, hence the Welsh Government can’t significantly increase flights from Cardiff without contradicting its net zero ambitions.
Nonsense. Look at the Conservative mayor run Teesside airport which has cost taxpayers tens of millions and had three flights to two destinations today. If it was ideological wouldn’t they be steaming ahead with the blue team in charge? The problem is the UK market is distorted by APD to favour the busiest airports which can keep costs per passenger at levels small airports can’t compete with.
I notice that the people who don’t support Cardiff Airport are also those who think that we in Wales are too poor and too pathetic to make our own decisions and be able to make meaningful connections to the big bag world, and probably think that Wales would be better off being part of England. First all each of the four UK nations have their own national tourist boards, (similar to FIFA where home nations are independent) and are individually responsible for promoting their countries around the world. Before the pandemic I had conducted surveys with travel agencies and tour… Read more »
Chambers Wales business charity only airport member is Bristol – so Cardiff Airport is not engaging with Welsh businesses
So Professor Stuart Cole, “CBE. Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy), Prifysgol de Cymru / University of South Wales” has participated in at least THREE different “studies” on Cardiff Airport – but seems to be uncertain about how much was paid for the airport by the Welsh Labour Government. …..Was it “£52 million”?. (see first paragraph) or was it “£67.9 million”? (the price quoted in his paragraph on the “Financial Position”). …And, pardon me for asking, but how much did he get paid from the public purse for his “advice” – given that none of the projects he advised… Read more »
This is a TRUE PICTURE of this useless Welsh government. They buy on a whim but have no idea what to do. They install their own Director/managers who may have tried to enlarge the business but their hands are tied by ministers in Senedd. We get the same rhetoric everytime this comes up from the Welsh government. Nothing has changed , no road route no rail route , 20mph to get there it’s all a joke as a taxpayer I’ve protested many times if they sell is how will people get there ?? That’s why no one wants it
Can I assume you’ve never travelled to Gatwick, Stansted or Luton? While it would be great to divert the M4 and GWML under the airport, people don’t pick an airport for accessibility. They pick the airport with the flight they want at the price they’re prepared to pay even if it means driving six hours to get there.
Well you can vote them out next year.