Could UK policing reforms provide a roadmap to devolved policing in Wales?

Mark Mansfield

Wales could gain significantly greater control over how its police forces are governed as a result of a major UK Government shake-up, according to new analysis.

The planned abolition of Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) means a new system of police governance will have to be developed specifically for Wales, despite policing itself remaining reserved to Westminster.

In parts of England, policing responsibilities can be transferred to elected mayors, but Wales has no equivalent regional mayors and local government is devolved.

As a result, the UK and Welsh governments will have to agree replacement arrangements for Wales, potentially giving Welsh institutions greater administrative control and democratic oversight of policing.

The analysis, by Sarah Hatherley of Senedd Research, stresses that this would stop short of devolving policing itself, with legislative and executive responsibility remaining at Westminster.

The reforms come as the wider question of devolving policing has returned to the political agenda after Prime Minister Andy Burnham said during his first official visit to Wales last month that he was open to discussing the issue with the Welsh Government.

First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has since stepped up calls for the powers to be transferred.

He said: “On policing, he has had, as a mayor of Greater Manchester, more influence over policing than I do as a First Minister of Wales.

“We raised more than half of funding for policing in Wales directly here in Wales, not through the Home Office.

“It is time now to move forward with a devolution of policing and justice.”

Mr ap Iorwerth said he was “positive” about discussions with Mr Burnham and hoped the case for devolving policing would become “clear in his mind, as it has been for a long time in mine”.

‘Jagged edge’

At present, policing is reserved to Westminster, while services including health, education, housing, social services and local government are devolved.

That creates what has frequently been described as a “jagged edge” in the Welsh devolution settlement, with police forces working closely with services controlled in Wales while policing itself remains part of an England-and-Wales system.

North Wales Police and Crime Commissioner Andy Dunbobbin has also backed devolving policing, while warning against power and resources being centralised in Cardiff.

He said last month: “I am, in principle, supportive of the devolution of policing and criminal justice to Wales.

“Joining up policing with devolved health, social care and local government services makes sense when it comes to early intervention and crime prevention.”

But the Labour PCC warned that transferring responsibility from Westminster must not simply result in greater centralisation within Wales.

He said: “Devolving powers from London cannot result in resources and decision-making being drawn disproportionately towards South Wales. North Wales must receive its fair share of funding to support our frontline neighbourhood policing teams.”

Reforms

The UK Government’s January White Paper, From local to national: a new model for policing, proposes major structural changes across England and Wales.

They include abolishing PCCs in 2028, reviewing the number and boundaries of police forces, creating a National Police Service for serious and complex crime and strengthening national standards and oversight.

Wales’ four PCCs have broadly supported the aims of the reforms but said their implications for Welsh governance and funding remain unclear.

They have proposed an all-Wales partnership board alongside four regional boards aligned with the existing police force areas.

Mr Dunbobbin has also stressed the importance of protecting local accountability and North Wales Police’s cross-border links with forces in England.

Consensus

Wales currently has four police forces – North Wales Police, Dyfed-Powys Police, South Wales Police and Gwent Police – but there is no consensus over whether that structure should continue.

Evidence submitted to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee has included options ranging from retaining all four forces to creating a single all-Wales service.

The arguments include balancing local identity and accountability against potential economies of scale and greater specialist capacity.

There are also unanswered questions over funding.

The four Welsh forces are due to receive around £512.34 million in core support in 2026-27, but the financial implications of changing governance, force structures and national policing arrangements remain unclear.

Senedd Research says the option most directly opened up by the White Paper is a distinct Welsh administrative system while policing remains reserved.

Legislation

Partial or phased devolution, with some responsibilities transferred to Wales while national and specialist functions remained at UK level, would require further political agreement and legislation.

Full legislative and executive devolution – the Welsh Government’s stated objective – would also require changes to the Welsh devolution settlement and is not proposed in the White Paper.

Changing who controls policing would not necessarily improve policing itself.

Evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee did not suggest devolution would automatically reduce crime, improve public confidence or address violence against women and girls, with outcomes also dependent on prevention, investment and effective partnership working.

The White Paper itself stops short of devolving policing, but the abolition of PCCs means new arrangements will have to be developed for Wales while the Welsh Government continues to press Westminster for the wider transfer of policing and justice powers.

You can read the full analysis here

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