Economist writer sees Wales’ independence happening through ‘mixture of neglect, mild contempt and mockery taking its toll’

Written by the Economist’s columnist, Bagehot, who ‘offers astute commentary and analysis on British politics, policies, and societal trends’, the article titled ‘The Invention of Wales‘ begins by discussing Jan morris, who “became a fervent Welsh nationalist in her dotage”.

He shares: “In one of her lesser-known works, she imagined an independent Wales in the mists of the 21st century. Its capital was Machynlleth, a small town of 2,163 people in the middle of Wales. For it was here that Owain Glyndŵr, a 15th-century Welsh soldier, set up shop after rebelling against the English and briefly achieving the “fulfilment of Wales”.

“Even in the hands of a writer like Morris, an imagined tale of Welsh independence was a tough sell. Her publishers had warned her: a Scottish figure would have a “larger sales potential”, they said. It was the only work she published that failed to elicit a single letter from readers. In Machynlleth today, the site of Owain’s parliament hosts a small museum dedicated to the Welsh prince and “Caffi Glyndŵr”, a coffee shop with a logo of Prince Owain holding a sausage triumphantly aloft.

“Come May, however, an idea that was once Morris’s most fevered imagining will take a step towards reality.”

Polls expect Plaid Cymru to emerge as the largest party in Senedd elections, with 32% of the Welsh population would support independence, according to More In Common.

Bagehot writes: “For an ancient place, Wales is a modern beast. Its trappings of statehood are young. Cardiff was made its capital in 1955. Its flag was recognised in 1959. The border did not reach its current form until 1974. Its parliament, introduced in 1999, has enjoyed full lawmaking powers only since 2011.

“What powers the Welsh government does wield are the soft edges of statehood. It controls education and health and (some) transport. The sharp parts—sending people to prison, for instance—are kept in London. Scottish independence would be a matter of institutional archaeology, digging out what has always been there. When it melded with England, Scotland clung to its symbols of statehood: its church, its legal system and its education system. In Wales, independence is a matter of institutional invention, building something that has not—Prince Owain’s efforts aside—really existed before.

Maintaining that Welsh people stood in the way of Welsh independence until relatively recently, the Welsh, he adds “were not big on separatism. For much of its existence, Plaid Cymru avoided the “I” word. Keeping Welsh civilisation—particularly its rich language—alive and free was far more important than vulgar political power, argued Saunders Lewis, one of the party’s co-founders.”

He writes: “Despite the surge in support for it, independence is incidental to Plaid Cymru’s rise. The party is a Schelling point around which progressive voters who hate the idea of Nigel Farage’s Reform uk in power in either Wales or Westminster can form. An independent Wales is, however, the preferred destination of any country run by Plaid Cymru. Ignoring that is the political equivalent of reading Playboy for the articles and being surprised to discover a naked woman on the next page. Harri Webb, a Welsh nationalist and poet, declared—a touch prematurely—in the 1970s: “Wales is marching backwards into independence, everybody desperately pretending that we are going somewhere else.””Such inertia is a powerful force in politics. Not that many in Westminster appreciate it. The idea of Scottish independence furrows brows; the idea of Welsh independence triggers giggles. “I think it is far more likely that Wales will leave the union before Scotland does,” argues Lauren McEvatt, a former Tory special adviser to the Wales Office, in comments gleefully circulated by independence campaigners. Not due to any colossal constitutional fight, but a mixture of neglect, mild contempt and mockery taking its toll, eventually.”
The break-up of Britain (again)”

Arguing that “British politics has entered a centrifugal period”, he shares that: “In Wales a once-strange literary dream slowly turns into an even weirder reality.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth – Image: Rob Norman/ HayMan Media[/caption]

The leader of Plaid Cymru has said his party would use time in government to make the case for Welsh independence, but ruled out any referendum in its first term should the party come to power.

The party has positioned itself as a government-in-waiting ahead of the Senedd election in May, emboldened by its victory in the Caerphilly by-election in October.

Speaking at a press conference in January, leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said he hoped to move Wales on to the “road to independence”.

He said: “Everybody in Wales knows that I support Wales being an independent nation.

“The manifesto will spell out how we will want to use our time in government to make the case for how we could do things differently in Wales, how we can set a different trajectory for us by taking more levers of power into our hands.

“You can call that independence now, you can call it the road to independence, whatever, but we have business to do right now, on health, education, on families, on jobs, on the environment, on farming.”

The party leader has already ruled out a referendum in the first term of a Plaid government.

“It is in the hands of the people of Wales,” Mr ap Iorwerth added.

“My job is to try to show leadership and bring people with us… But we do that at the same time as getting to grips with those other issues.”

Read Bagehot’s The Invention of Wales in full here.