How did Reform become north east Wales’ biggest party?

Hayley Jones

Growing up in north east Wales, Labour’s dominance often felt like part of the political background rather than something actively questioned.

Election campaigns brought familiar scenes: Labour posters in windows, leaflets through doors, and a sense of political continuity shaped by the region’s industrial past and the long shadow of deindustrialisation. In that context, the idea that a right-wing populist party could one day top the poll across Flintshire and Wrexham would once have seemed unlikely.

Yet that is exactly what happened in May’s Senedd election.

Reform UK emerged as the largest party in the new Fflint Wrecsam constituency, winning two seats and securing 36.2% of the vote. It finished almost 10 percentage points ahead of Plaid Cymru and comfortably ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

The scale of the result was underlined by the collapse in support for the two traditional major parties. Compared with the previous Senedd election, Labour’s vote share fell by 24.6 percentage points and the Conservatives’ by 19.3 points, while Reform gained 35.2 points. Turnout also increased by 4.2 percentage points to 45.5%.

The figures suggest Reform’s success was not simply the result of former Conservative voters switching allegiance. Support appears to have come from across the political spectrum, raising a bigger question about what drove voters in north east Wales to embrace a party that had barely registered in the region five years earlier.

But the question is not simply who won. It is why north east Wales produced this result.

And on that question, there is no single explanation.

Instead, three interpretations emerge, rooted in geography, governance and how the region is experienced politically.

A region shaped by borders and industry

For Askar Sheibani, chairman of the Deeside Business Forum, the explanation begins with the region’s economic geography.

He points to north east Wales as a place defined by heavy industry and advanced manufacturing, from Deeside Industrial Park to major employers such as Airbus at Broughton, alongside long-standing labour flows across the Welsh-English border.

“There is a massive difference in mentality between the North West and the North East,” Mr Sheibani said.

He describes a region closely linked to Merseyside and Cheshire, where thousands of people cross the border daily for work and where economic activity is highly integrated with England.

“North east Wales has always been a major manufacturing area,” he said. “There has been a lot of migration from Liverpool and the surrounding region. There is a very strong connection between this area and Merseyside.”

That cross-border reality, he argues, helps shape a political outlook that differs in some respects from other parts of Wales.

‘Unhappy with the system’

Alongside geography, Mr Sheibani highlights economic frustration as a factor in political change.

He points to pressure on small businesses, rising costs and a sense of distance from decision-making in both Cardiff and Westminster.

He said: “People are basically unhappy with the system.

“Even when Labour was in power, they didn’t think Labour was truly representing them.

He added: “There is a disconnection.

“They think all the concentration is in the Cardiff area.”

In this reading, Reform’s support reflects frustration with established parties rather than a single political identity.

A question of representation, not identity

Marc Jones, Plaid Cymru Senedd Member for North Wales, rejects the idea that north east Wales is fundamentally different from the rest of Wales.

Mr Jones said: “There is absolutely no difference between the people of north east Wales and the rest of Wales.

“Everybody is as Welsh as everybody else.”

But he argues the election result is better understood through political history than cultural division.

He said: “It’s not that people don’t trust Cardiff.

“It’s how Labour governments over the past 27 years have treated the North.”

In his view, the sense of grievance reflects long-standing underinvestment and underrepresentation rather than identity.

“The North has generally been underrepresented,” he said.

The scale of Labour’s collapse in Fflint Wrecsam, where the party lost almost a quarter of its vote share compared with 2021, lends some weight to that argument.

Mr Jones also points to what he sees as a decline in North Wales’ influence within Welsh political decision-making.

A border political identity

Michael Woods, Professor of Human Geography at Aberystwyth University, offers a broader interpretation.

He argues that Reform’s support reflects political disillusionment combined with the dynamics of living in a border region where economic and cultural influences overlap.

North east Wales, he suggests, sits between two economic spheres, shaped politically by Cardiff but closely connected to Liverpool, Chester and north-west England.

That combination, he argues, can create conditions in which anti-establishment messages resonate more strongly.

Beyond simple explanations

The temptation is to reduce Reform’s performance in north east Wales to a single cause: geography, identity or protest.

But the picture that emerges is more complex.

The more people I spoke to, the less convincing any single explanation became.

Askar Sheibani sees a region shaped by industry and its links to north-west England. Marc Jones points to years of political neglect. Michael Woods sees a border region where anti-establishment politics can find fertile ground.

They disagree on the causes, but they all point towards a similar conclusion: many people in north east Wales feel their concerns have not been heard.

If that is what lies behind Reform’s rise, then the result may say less about the arrival of a new political identity and more about a growing frustration with those who have traditionally claimed to represent the region.

North east Wales has not become less Welsh.

But it appears more willing than ever to challenge who speaks for it, and whether anyone is really listening.

Reform UK was invited to contribute to this article but declined to take part.