How much is migration really contributing to Wales’ housing crisis?

Mark Mansfield

Migration has become an increasingly prominent part of the debate over Wales’ housing crisis, with population growth blamed for adding pressure to an already stretched supply of homes.

But new analysis by Senedd Research suggests migration is only one part of the picture.

Migration has increased demand for housing in Wales and has been responsible for virtually all the country’s recent population growth.

However, evidence examined by Senedd Research suggests its effect on house prices is relatively modest compared with factors including decades of underbuilding, incomes, mortgage lending, interest rates and the availability of land.

The research also reveals marked differences in where people born in Wales, elsewhere in the UK and overseas live, including their use of social and privately rented housing.

At the time of the 2021 Census, 28.7% of Wales’ 3.05 million residents had been born outside Wales.

Some 21.9%, or 667,731 people, had been born elsewhere in the UK, overwhelmingly in England, while 6.8%, or 206,702 people, had been born outside the UK.

Welsh-born residents were more likely to live in social housing than either of the other groups.

Some 17.9% of people born in Wales lived in social housing, compared with 13.7% of people born outside the UK and 11.1% of those born elsewhere in the UK.

People born overseas were instead far more heavily represented in the private rented sector.

More than a third – 35.9% – rented privately, compared with 12% of Welsh-born residents and 16.5% of people born elsewhere in the UK.

Meanwhile, 70.1% of people born elsewhere in the UK owned their homes, compared with 67.7% of Welsh-born residents and 47% of those born overseas.

Among more recent arrivals, private renting was even more common.

Of the 22,054 people living in Wales who had been in the UK for less than two years at the time of the Census, 68.7% were private renters.

Just 7% lived in social housing, while 17% were owner-occupiers.

Only 0.3% of everyone living in social housing in Wales had been in the UK for less than two years.

Immigration status also affects eligibility. People subject to a No Recourse to Public Funds condition are normally unable to access social housing or housing-related benefits, while local authority allocation policies commonly include local connection requirements.

Population

Migration has, however, played a significant role in Wales’ population growth.

Wales has an ageing population and deaths have outnumbered births since 2017.

Senedd Research estimates that without migration – both from overseas and elsewhere in the UK – the population would have fallen by around 44,900 between 2011 and 2025.

Instead, net international migration added an estimated 120,500 people over that period and migration from elsewhere in the UK added around 92,300.

But the researchers caution that population numbers alone are a poor measure of housing demand because the number of households being formed is also important.

Between 2012 and 2024, the number of households in Wales increased by 6%, compared with population growth of 3.5%.

Migration was one reason, but two other demographic changes were important.

People are living longer and remaining in their homes for longer, while average household sizes have fallen.

The number of people living alone increased by about 42,900 over the period, accounting for more than half of the overall growth in households. Almost six in 10 of those additional single-person households were occupied by somebody aged 65 or over.

House prices

Independent reviews examined by Senedd Research have consistently found that international migration can increase demand in places where the supply of homes is unable to respond.

But its long-term effect on prices appears to be relatively small compared with other forces.

A 2026 report for the Migration Advisory Committee estimated international immigration was responsible for about 4% to 6% of the total increase in UK house prices over the previous three decades.

Factors including income growth, the availability and cost of mortgages, interest rates and the long-term shortage of homes had a greater impact.

There is much less evidence available to establish the effect on Welsh house prices of people moving to Wales from other parts of the UK.

The researchers conclude: “Migration is one contributor to demand, but the housing crisis reflects deeper structural forces.”

Shortages

On the supply side, the Senedd Research briefing says there is broad academic agreement that decades of insufficient housebuilding have left Wales with a structural shortage.

Higher construction costs and labour shortages make increasing supply more difficult, while the cost and availability of land also affect how much can be built and at what price.

Some research places greater emphasis on the planning system, arguing restrictions and delays limit the supply of land and increase developers’ costs.

Other research focuses on the growing treatment of housing as a financial asset and the effects of mortgage lending and investment.

Welfare policy, poverty, declining social housing provision and how the existing housing stock is distributed have also been identified as factors.

Wales also has more than 1.5 million “spare” bedrooms, according to the analysis.

There are around four million bedrooms in occupied homes in Wales, with more than one million households having at least one bedroom above their assessed requirement.

Some 561,237 households had two or more spare bedrooms.

At the same time, 29,700 households were overcrowded.

Most of the spare rooms are in owner-occupied homes, many occupied by older people for whom suitable smaller properties may not be available.

The researchers say this demonstrates how housing shortage and under-occupation can exist at the same time, with the distribution of existing homes forming another part of Wales’ housing pressures.

The Welsh Government currently estimates there is unmet need for around 9,400 homes, while between 7,300 and 9,800 additional homes a year could be required between 2025 and 2030.

Senedd Research concludes that migration is one contributor to housing demand, but that Wales’ housing crisis has multiple causes.

As the briefing puts it, it is “not one problem with one fix”.

---

Get more trusted Welsh news

Choose Nation.Cymru as a preferred source in Google News to see more of our journalism.