HS2 ‘double whammy’ will further disadvantage Wales

Professor Stuart Cole, CBE. Emeritus Professor of Transport Economics and Policy, Prifysgol de Cymru / University of South Wales

The general view of HS2 in Wales is that it has brought us no benefits; worse it provided economic disbenefits.

As if ‘rubbing salt into the wound’ HS2 is now making further negative inroads into the economy of, and rail travel facilities serving, both south Wales and the southwest of England.

The ‘double whammy’ predicted in this column (29 October 2023) was last week repeated in The Times newspaper. As predicted, there will be disruption to services until 2032.

Wales previous loss from HS2

This column has reported (19 July 2024) on how Wales received no economic benefit from the HS2 north – south England rail investment scheme. Indeed it gave economic disadvantages to south Wales. Nor, as it was designated an England and Wales scheme by HM Treasury, did Wales receive any Barnett consequential funding estimated at up to £3 bn.

HS2 was clearly an England only project from the start (and not England and Wales as designated). Originally intended to provide extra capacity on the London to Birmingham rail route it was a high-speed line following the European pattern and where construction costs were acceptably higher than a conventional-speed railway.

HS2 investment costs

On the cost issue the National Audit Office (NAO: fortunately, independent of any government and responsible to the UK parliament) last month produced its report on HS 2.

Worryingly the estimated cost for the section between London and Birmingham varies between £49 – 57 bn from HS 2 Ltd and the Department for Transport’s estimate of £45 – 54 bn (all at 2019 prices). This suggests that the final bill has not been calculated and given the inflationary rate over the last five years will cost considerably more (maybe up to £70 bn) than the current allocated funding of £44.6 bn.

The original London terminus for HS 2 was to be Euston Station used currently by train travellers from / to north Wales, northwest England and the English midlands –  a logical decision. However, the cost of putting in additional platforms at Euston was well beyond even the unaffordability of HS 2 so far.

The NAO says that DfT’s plans for redeveloping Euston station ‘are at an early stage; it has not yet decided on its scope funding or governance’. In non – governmental speak this means another 15 – 20  years before it will be ready.

Engineering work at Old Oak Common

Travellers on Great Western Railway trains between south Wales and London will have seen the extensive civil engineering works at Old Oak Common, a former railway and derelict industrial site just west of Paddington Station. Currently it is the stabling (parking) location for Heathrow Express, Elizabeth Line and Great Western Railway (GWR) trains and while we travellers see it largely empty during the day, at night it is filled with those trains.

The new HS 2 station will see their removal elsewhere thus increasing train stabling costs and additional running time.

Construction up to now has been the huge underground ‘box’ structure containing the six 450 metres long platforms for the HS2 trains to Birmingham and possibly in the distant future onwards to north Wales. The 1 km long site will also contain eight above ground platforms for the Elizabeth Line, Heathrow Express and Great Western local and long-distance trains.

More negatives for Wales from HS 2 construction period

One might think how does that affect travellers from south Wales bound for Paddington?  Construction so far has had little effect on journey times. The new HS2 station (as yet unnamed)  at Old Oak Common (OOC) will be built with a realigned east – west four-track route into Paddington’ This will cause most of the disruption during the construction phase; the increased journey times for south Wales passengers will be during blockades on the main line with service diversion.

The disruption during construction (until 2032) will, say HS 2, be limited to each Christmas and at some weekends (starting 19 November) during which Paddington station will be closed.  The number of hourly train ‘paths’ reduces from around fifty to fifteen and so a reduced service frequency with train speeds reduced from 125 mph to 60 mph increasing journey times. Recalling the words in the television adaption of Michael Dobbs’ book House of Cards – ‘Paddington is where the [southern] Welsh catch their trains’. Trains are to be diverted to Euston resulting in an additional fifteen-minute journey time. An unfamiliar station on an unfamiliar route and where in 2023 the Office of Rail and Road reported Euston as having ‘unacceptable levels of overcrowding’.

That disruption may affect the hourly service from Swansea and half hourly from Cardiff which should continue but as yet DfT have not provided even the 2026 timetable. However, Wales again gets hit by a railway, the HS 2, which so far has done nothing positive for Wales.

The Sunday effect will be felt by the tourism industry as the railway is increasingly becoming a leisure business and trains from Wales and the west of England are often full and standing on summer Sundays.

Longer term journey time increases: south Wales – London

Once full operations resume one option seems to have GWR trains stopping at HS2 OOC only four minutes from Paddington. This may increase revenue forecasts so improving the HS2 business case but  has no logic for long distance passengers most of whom  have Paddington as their destination. There will be a time disbenefit of 3 – 10 minutes dwell time so reducing the time saving following the nearly £3 bn spent on reducing journey times between south Wales and London by 15 minutes.

A small number may wish to change trains for Birmingham (though most Midlands – bound passengers will take the direct Cross Country Trains service from Cardiff. Stopping for GWR passengers to change onto the Elizabeth Line has no rationale given the inter-change at Paddington. Logically passengers from London to England’s Midlands are more likely to continue to use Euston services. And a connection between HS2 and the underground has not been planned.  The DfT who will determine stopping patterns and timetables for all trains stopping at HS2 OOC has time to reconsider the inconvenience to south Wales and west of England travellers.

The Welsh Government and our south Wales representatives in Westminster who include the Secretary of State, Jo Stevens, now must ensure that Wales doesn’t receive any more negative consequences from HS2.