‘It’s a waste of time’: What voters think six months on from the Caerphilly by-election

Kyle Bright

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth called the Caerphilly by-election a “blueprint for success” across Wales.

Six months on, we spoke to voters to gauge whether those plans will materialise, and what voters want before returning to the ballot box next month.

The contest in Caerphilly saw the election of Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle to the Senedd, defeating Reform UK in what was expected to be a tight race, and leaving Labour by the wayside in third place in what was once their heartland.

While the race was only to elect a member for Caerphilly, its impact was symbolic for the whole of Wales. It helped set the backdrop for this campaign ahead of the election on May 7.

Our discussions with voters coincide with recent polling by YouGov which has surveyed the wider picture of what voters want across Wales. Here’s what we learned.

Wales is desperate for change

With approval ratings continuing to decline, it is unsurprising that a demand that came across repeatedly in Caerphilly was a desire for real change.

One voter we spoke to chose Plaid Cymru in October’s by-election and planned to do so again in May’s election. Asking them what drove their choice, they said: “I’ve been here that long, and Labour have been here since time began, and nothing is changing. It’s just the same old, same old, so, let’s see if someone can do something differently.”

Polling across Wales echoes this sentiment. According to YouGov, only around 1 in 8 Welsh adults believe the Welsh government is doing a good job.

There’s an argument though that not all of the responsibility lies at the foot of first minister Eluned Morgan’s door. Only 19% of Welsh people believe prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is doing a good job leading the UK government in Westminster.

Voters increasingly want to ‘stop Reform’

A prominent motivation for voters when we spoke to locals in Caerphilly was merely to “stop Reform”. This isn’t new either – we saw voters rally behind Plaid Cymru in the October by-election, with many voting tactically to keep the right-wing party out of the Senedd.

In response to a question about voters’ top issues for this election, one voter said keeping Reform out was their priority: “Especially with the rise in the far-right, I feel it is important to vote against it.”

They added: “I think that’s my top issue, because people like Reform shouldn’t be in office.”

Reform’s local office on the high street in Caerphilly has repeatedly faced vandalism in the past, with graffiti reading “now you can f*** off home”, and a sticker placed on the party’s slogan to make it read “Caerphilly needs fascism”.

Polarisation is becoming a major obstacle for Reform UK. Approval ratings reflect this, with most people having a view on how well the party’s UK leader, Nigel Farage, is doing in his job. Half of Welsh people believe he is doing badly in his role.

Meanwhile, Farage’s Welsh counterpart, Dan Thomas, is hampered with 40% of Welsh voters disapproving of his leadership. However, a similar amount of people do not have a view at all on how he is doing as Welsh leader.

The new system isn’t cutting through

With a new proportional voting system, 16 new constituencies, of which there’s six politicians representing each one, it is unsurprising that people can be confused over how the voting system works for this Senedd election.

The way people can tactically vote has changed this election, with close margins being between parties who are battling for the sixth seat in each area.

Many voters we spoke to are yet to fully grapple with this idea. One voter mentioned that tactical voting played a significant role in who they would support come the election in May: “I’d probably go for the leader of the Green Party.”

They continued: “Zack Polanski we love, obviously that’s not for the Senedd. My heart is Green Party – but I feel I’ve got to vote tactically.”

Research by Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture found that there needs to be better clarity over how devolution works in Wales, with 58% of people surveyed for their analysis having no idea what voting system is being used for the election in May.

Their research found that a lack of clarity by UK-wide media outlets when reporting on Welsh issues has contributed to “uncertainty” about which issues the Senedd is responsible for, and “widespread confusion about the Senedd’s new voting system”.

This is a cost of living election

Consistently, the cost of living has remained in the spotlight during this election campaign, with Caerphilly voters regularly raising it to us as a key concern.

Over half of Welsh people prioritise the issue, closely followed by the health service, then immigration and the economy in joint third place.

Certain issues reveal the polarisation between the two front-running parties in this election. Issues such as immigration, which is not devolved to the Senedd, is a top priority for Reform UK voters, while not even 1 in 10 Plaid Cymru voters think the issue is worth prioritising.

Many remain disillusioned with politics

During the campaign, with all the manifestos, the launches, the polling hypotheticals – it is easy to forget that a sizeable portion of Welsh people are still opting not to vote at all on polling day.

Getting out on the ground in Caerphilly truly brought this disillusionment to light. One person we briefly spoke to said that they felt that Senedd elections “are a waste of time”.

What the motives are for this person not voting are up for interpretation. What we do know, though, is that many people feel they cannot trust politicians, struggle to understand the political system, or believe that the Welsh parliament should not exist at all.

On the latter point, nearly a third of Welsh people want to abolish the Senedd. Yet in this election, none of the larger parties are pushing for this stance this election. Whether the parties may shift position post-election remains to be seen.

What comes across from this is that, if Senedd politicians have a lot of work to do to sway voters on their side, then they have an even tougher job engaging those who have given up on the system altogether.