Journalist tests claims made about Welsh vs British identity

Stephen Price

A Welsh journalist has spoken with members of the public in Caerphilly to discuss recent findings that suggest those who identify as Welsh are more left-leaning, with those on the right more likely to call themselves British.

Novara Media’s Social Lead, Lloyd James shared: “It’s the single question that could decide who runs Cymru, come the Senedd elections.

“Do you call yourself Welsh or British?

“If you said you were Welsh, the data says you’re more likely to be left-wing.

“If you identify as British first, chances are you’re more likely to be on the right.

“That’s why Novara Media has come to Caerphilly, where Plaid beat Reform in a crucial by-election last year, to put this to the test.”

 

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Speaking to the first member of the public, he asks: “Do you call yourself more Welsh or British?”

The first respondent shares: “I’d say Welsh. I don’t really resonate with being British. It’s always been Welsh first, I think.

“I think, historically, I’ve always voted Labour just because it’s always been the main party at Caerphilly, really. But at the last election, I voted Plaid. A vote for Labour at the moment is probably a bit of a wasted vote.”

The next member of the public to answer the question shared: “I always go Welsh.

“I was always a staunch Labour voter all my life. I just don’t like the way they’re leaning or, you know, right in recent months since they came into power.

So I’m in Wales. I’m thinking Plaid.”

The third interviewee responded: “I’m Portuguese, but I have a stake in Wales.

“Wales welcomed me when I moved here. It’s the place where my wife was born and where she lives. And I’m not Welsh, but I consider myself part of Wales.

“In Pontypridd, Cynon Merthyr, I’m going to vote for Beth Winter.”

The next person to be asked shared: “Free childcare is a big one.

“I’m a lot more left-leaning, so it’s going to be between Plaid and Green.

“But I think for Welsh elections, kind of keep it Welsh and Plaid definitely.”

Returning to the first interviewee, he added: “I don’t want Reform winning Caerphilly, so Plaid seems to be the option to stop that happening.

Another adds: “I’m scared yeah. I’m a mother, I also am a woman as you can see.

“What really worries me is that the regressive side of that party are against all the things that we fought for, like women’s rights and trans rights and all the things that I’d like to think that come naturally to people that, you know, necessarily want to care about others in the community.”

“Hate will not win in the valleys”

The Portuguese interviewee added: “But most importantly, I think it’s a party of the billionaires.

“It’s not a party of the working class, of the Welsh working class, of the English working class, of none of the working class.

“I think that they will fight for the interests of those that take our rights, that take our services, that devastate our communities.

“On the 7th, we need to really send a strong message, like we sent in the Caerphilly by-election, that hate will not win in the Valleys and racism will not win in the Valleys.

“And the inclusive working class traditions of the Valleys are here, are healthy and are proud and will stay.”

Lloyd James concludes: “Today we were talking to people with a real diverse range of political identities and perspectives.

“We spoke to Reform voters and Labour voters who didn’t want to be on camera, and one woman who said that Reform was asset-stripping the country and Cymru was going to be next.

“Now the one thing that people had in common, undoubtedly, was this feeling of being left behind by the political elites in Westminster and beyond.

“And if Plaid and every other party have one challenge come the Senedd elections, it’s pushing the vote out to above the usual 50% turnout or less.

“If they can do that, then anything can happen.”

James’ most recent post about immigration in Wales looked at the immigration debate in Wales, which has been fuelled by misunderstandings about the Senedd’s powers and claims made by Reform in their election advertising and television appearances.

 

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Novara’s Instagram asked: “Does Wales have a problem with immigration? As Reform rolls out the usual rightwing talking points ahead of the Senedd election, @lloydjameshh asks if the problem in Cymru lies much deeper than the debate.”

Polling

Reform UK has moved slightly ahead of Plaid Cymru in the latest Senedd election polling, underlining how finely balanced the contest has become.

A survey conducted by Survation for Aberystwyth University and S4C puts Reform on 30%, with Plaid close behind on 28%.

Welsh Labour trails in third place on 15%, while the Conservatives and the Green Party are both on 10%. The Liberal Democrats stand on 4%, with a further 4% backing other parties.

Analysis of the poll suggests the election remains highly competitive, with small margins potentially decisive in determining the final outcome.

Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who led the analysis of the opinion poll, said: “These findings point to a highly competitive political landscape ahead of the Senedd election, with two parties currently leading in voting intention.

“While Reform UK are found to hold a slight lead over Plaid Cymru, it is clearly incredibly close between the two parties. On the basis of such close polling results, projecting which party will win the most seats in the Senedd is incredibly difficult.”

She added that the results indicate a significant shift in Welsh politics, with both Labour and the Conservatives trailing well behind the frontrunners.

“If these results are replicated on 7 May, they will constitute a historic change in our politics,” she said.

The poll also highlights the issues most likely to influence voters, with the cost of living cited by 67% of respondents and NHS and healthcare by 64%.

Immigration (39%) and the wider economy (31%) were also ranked as key concerns, while housing, climate change, crime and education were mentioned by smaller proportions.

Around 60% of respondents said they are generally interested in politics, with just over half saying they have been following the election campaign to some degree.

However, engagement varies sharply by age. More than two-thirds of those aged 65 and over said they had paid attention to the campaign, compared with fewer than half of those aged 16 to 24.

When asked which party is running the best campaign, 20% chose Plaid Cymru and 18% Reform UK, though 39% said they did not know.

Plaid Cymru was also seen as the party most likely to stand up for Wales’ interests, with 34% selecting it compared to 16% for Reform UK. More than a quarter of respondents said no party represented Wales’ interests or were unsure.

Complexity

Dr Elias said the findings underline the complexity of voter decision-making.

“The results highlight the importance of everyday concerns in shaping voter priorities, especially the cost of living and pressures on the NHS,” she said.

“At the same time, there is a notable gap between voting intention and perceptions of which party best represents Wales’ interests.”

The poll was based on a sample of 1,065 adults in Wales, surveyed online between 17 and 23 April, with results weighted to reflect the population and likelihood to vote.

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