Starmer under pressure after a rocky start for Labour

Helen Corbett, PA Political Correspondent

Sir Keir Starmer has had a rocky start in his first year as Prime Minister and faces plummeting polls for Labour and struggles inside his party as he enters the second stage of his plans for a “decade of renewal”.

Labour swept back into Downing Street with more than 400 MPs on July 4 last year – clinching a majority just short of Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997.

A year later, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice is calling it “the worst start for any newly elected prime minister”.

Sir Keir was accused of setting a gloomy tone at the outset, telling the public that “things will get worse before they get better” and warning of “tough choices” and a “black hole” left in the finances by his predecessors.

Winter fuel payments

Soon after, a plan was unveiled to cut back winter fuel payments for pensioners, only for an enduring backlash to see the Government U-turn and widen eligibility months later.

This and the recent climbdown over plans for welfare cuts to stave off a backbench rebellion have raised the prospect of further tax rises in the autumn budget as the Chancellor seeks to balance the books.

It has also raised the prospect of rebellious MPs being emboldened to continue pushing back on future policy, putting Sir Keir’s plans at risk.

When it comes to whether voters like him, Sir John has argued that the Government has a “lack of direction” and that the Prime Minister was “never especially popular” and that “the public still don’t know what he stands for.”

“The only vision he’s really presented is: ‘We’ll fix the problems the Conservatives left us.’ But it’s not clear how he wants to change the country,” he told Times Radio.

Sir Keir has acknowledged the “challenge” of “getting our story across”.

“If I was to list to you all the things we’ve done, it’s a big long list of things. [But] how do we tell the story of what we’ve done? How do we make sure it’s actually felt by working people?” he said in an interview with The Times.

He also said he took “ownership” of all decisions made by his Government, and that he did not get to grips with the growing rebellion over welfare reforms earlier as he was focused on international affairs.

Rebellion

Although that rebellion was eventually reduced from 126 MPs to just 49, it required extensive concessions and marked the biggest revolt of his premiership so far, just days before he celebrated his first year in office.

He has played a balancing act on the world stage, strengthening ties with the EU while courting US President Donald Trump, who he wooed with an invitation for a second state visit to the UK when they met in the White House.

The football-loving Prime Minister lists a “hat-trick” of deals – an EU “reset”, a deal with India, and an agreement for relief from Mr Trump’s tariffs which has been partially implemented – among his key achievements.

He also touts his commitment to get defence spending up to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 – and the new Nato defence and security spending pledge of 5% of GDP by 2035.

At home, he is battling the rise of Reform UK.

A YouGov megapoll released last week said a general election now could see Reform UK taking more seats than Labour, while the latest Ipsos poll puts Nigel Farage’s party at 34% with Labour behind at 25%.

Sir Keir framed Reform UK as Labour’s main opposition at a press conference in May, saying the Conservative Party has “run out of road”.

It came after Reform UK hoovered up council seats across England in local elections, as well as gaining a seat previously held by Labour in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.

‘Island of strangers’

An immigration speech in which the Prime Minister said the UK could become an “island of strangers” drew criticism and comparisons with Enoch Powell’s infamous “rivers of blood” address that was blamed for inflaming racial tensions in the 1960s.

Sir Keir has since expressed regret at the phrasing.

But he reportedly plans to target “authoritarian-leaning” voters with a focus on tackling migration and crime.

In recent polling by LabourList of members, 64% said they wanted the party to shift to the left, with only around 2% favouring a move to the right.

The next test at the polls will be Welsh and Scottish elections in May, at which Reform UK hopes to end Labour’s 26-year domination in the Senedd next year.

Sir Keir again took aim at the party in a speech to the Welsh Labour conference last weekend, saying Mr Farage has “no plan at all” for the nation.

Political historian Sir Anthony Seldon has praised Sir Keir’s ability to react to crises in foreign policy and during the riots last summer, but urged him to counter Reform UK by communicating “growth” and “optimism”.

“Show people that you’re Prime Minister, show people you’ve got a story, show people things are getting better across the whole country with growth and then, you know, that will deal with Reform,” he told Sky News.

Sir Keir has pledged to lead a “decade of national renewal” and said that the first year of that has been “cleaning up that mess” his Government inherited.

In a signal he is seeking to put a positive spin on the future, he told business leaders last week: “We’ve wiped the state clean, we’ve stabilised the economy, and now we can go on to the next phase of government, building on that foundation.”