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Two charts that explain why Reform isn’t being dented by its scandals

14 Mar 2025 5 minute read
(left to right) Reform UK MP, Lee Anderson, Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, Reform UK chairman, Richard Tice, and Reform UK MP, Rupert Lowe, arrive at the House of Commons in Westminster. Photo Maja Smiejkowska/PA Wire

Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

The spat between Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform party, and Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, burst into the open when Lowe was suspended from the party. The allegation was that he had threatened violence to the party leadership, which he denies. The matter is currently being investigated by the police.

The row does not appear to have affected support for Reform in the polls. A YouGov poll completed on March 10, after Lowe’s suspension, shows Reform on 23% in vote intentions, compared with 24% for Labour and 22% for the Conservatives. It is still a three-party race at the top of British party politics.

In the 2024 general election a good deal of Reform’s support came from protest voters. These are voters who dislike all the mainstream parties and so see a vote for the party as a way of choosing “none of the above”. They are not attached to any party and can easily switch support when circumstances change. So why has support for the party not been affected by this row?

Protest politics and support for Reform

The answer to this question is that while Reform attracted a lot of discontented protest voters in the election, it has since acquired a more stable niche in British party politics. It is primarily a party of English nationalism, equivalent to the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales. These three parties differ greatly in outlook and politics, but they occupy a similar place in the public’s minds.

To examine Reform’s support from protest voters we can look at the relationship between spoilt ballots in the 2024 general election and support for the party in the 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales. Normally, observers of British elections pay little attention to spoilt ballots (or “invalid votes” as they are described in official statistics). However, it turns out that they played an important role in the 2024 election which has a bearing on support for Reform.

Research shows that voters who spoil their ballots can be classified into two categories: those who simply make a mistake when filling in the ballot and those who are protesting about the current system.

Mistakes are easy to make in countries with complex electoral systems. However, in Britain, the first-past-the-post system in which everyone has just one vote, ensures that this is not a significant factor because ballot papers are so simple. The bulk of spoilt ballots are protests of various kinds, taking the form of blank ballots, write-in candidates, or abusive messages about parties and candidates.

This is illustrated in the Lancashire seat of Chorley, which is held by the speaker of the House of Commons, Lindsay Hoyle. By tradition none of the major parties challenge the Speaker by campaigning in his constituency. In the election there were no less than 1,198 spoilt ballots in his constituency. It is fairly clear that these were a result of some voters feeling disenfranchised by the absence of their preferred party on the ballot paper.

The relationship between the Reform vote share and the number of spoilt ballots in constituencies in the 2024 election

Protest voting takes different forms. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

There is a strong negative relationship (a correlation of -0.46) between the share of a constituency vote that went to Reform in 2024 and the number of ballots spoiled in that constituency. Where people were voting Reform, in other words, fewer people were spoiling their ballots.

The implication is that the party picked up votes from people who would normally spoil their ballots or would not have voted at all if Reform had not stood in their constituency. These are the protest voters.

Identity politics and support for Reform

Not all support for Reform came from protest voters, however. The chart below compares the percentage of Reform voters with those who identified as English in the 2021 census in England.

There is a strong relationship between the two measures (a correlation of 0.66). The more English identifiers there are in a constituency, the greater support for Reform. In effect, Reform has become an English national party.

The relationship between Reform voting and English identity in 2024

An English national party in the making. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

National identities can change over time, but the process of change is slow. There has been a growth in “Englishness” at the expense of “Britishness” over time and this is undoubtedly reinforcing support for Reform.

It means the party has a relatively solid base of supporters to rely on in future elections. While the row between the party’s leader and one of his MPs could play out in any number of different directions at this early stage, it would be wrong to suggest that Reform isn’t thinking big picture and long term.

Farage has clearly learnt from his past and will not let his current party disintegrate into chaos like UKIP or the Brexit party before it.

This article was first published on The Conversation

The Conversation


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John Ellis
John Ellis
1 month ago

This analysis strikes me as, at the least, pretty plausible.

Llandudno boy
Llandudno boy
1 month ago

Two reasons many people are turning to Reform:
1) Labour have been in power too long and are now making a mess;
2) The other parties are not offering a credible alternative.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago
Reply to  Llandudno boy

3) there are words they are not advised to use in a decent society and they think reform will set them free.

Bernard
Bernard
1 month ago
Reply to  Llandudno boy

4) The kids who set fire to mountains for kicks and giggles grew up.

theoriginalmark
theoriginalmark
1 month ago
Reply to  Llandudno boy

you missed a 3rd point, they’re politically illiterate and clearly don’t understand what these clowns represent or who funds them.

Karl
Karl
1 month ago

People often vote for those who clearly hate them. I get a feeling it’s fake nostalgia to bring back thr past. Times when anyone Welsh did not enjoy protections we gave today. But British empire blah blah blah. Humans are pulled to one up each other.

Adrian
Adrian
1 month ago

Whereas Labour are being dented by their scandals. Rachel with her fake CV, the convicted fraudster, the corrupt corruption minister, the pretend solicitor…and of course Starmer’s lockdown tryst with his ‘vocal coach’ plus his sugar daddy, Lord Ali: they haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago
Reply to  Adrian

Not quite the way you paint it.
Meanwhile nige accepts loot from a convicted felon for flights, nige’s Reform supports an abuser, uses an abuser and misogynist for a rioting news source, accepts an abuser as a law maker and wants money from a bloke that snaps off nazi salutes for fun and claims to be friends with a bloke that attacks a leader standing up to putin (Vance in case you missed it, seeing as he and Kemi were on a who’s best friends with Vance rant)

Lot of abuse in that venn diagram of connections with reform.

Adrian
Adrian
1 month ago
Reply to  Jeff

Not quite the way you paint it
Whilst I always enjoy you diving for cover in ‘whataboutery’, maybe you could point out the inaccuracies in my post.

Fanny Hill
Fanny Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  Adrian

Whataboutery is one of the main reasons why Refuk is where it is today. No solutions or plausible policies, just playing the blame game. If it wasn’t for illegal immigrants, blah de blah, etc, etc.

Felicity
Felicity
1 month ago

Interesting that an English nationalist party should seek traction in Wales. Trumpian Reform will do best in the poorest areas, and will have of course, no interest in improving the neighbourhoods. (Where’s my ticket for Cheltenham?)

Bernard
Bernard
1 month ago
Reply to  Felicity

It’s a springboard to taking England, like Russia taking Crimea.

Rob Pountney
Rob Pountney
1 month ago
Reply to  Felicity

The fact that 30% of the population of Wales is English born & a fair amount of them being the ‘coastal retiree’ types who voted Brexit in large numbers & also for RefUK means that sadly there is a constituency for English right wing nationalists in Wales

Llyn
Llyn
1 month ago

Interesting article. There’s no doubt Reform UK are a far-right English nationalist party led by an admirer of fascists like Putin, but the media in the UK has been cowed by the establishment to say what is obvious.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 month ago

Poster boy…

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 month ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

bad news sells better…

theoriginalmark
theoriginalmark
1 month ago

anybody in Wales voting for these public school educated city boys, should move over the border and live in England, I’m sure they’ll fit in just right over there.

Jeff
Jeff
1 month ago
Last edited 1 month ago by Jeff

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