Wales has cut its carbon emissions almost in half – but the hardest part is still to come

Nation.Cymru Staff

Wales has reached a milestone that would have seemed ambitious a generation ago.

Greenhouse gas emissions are now at their lowest level since records began, having fallen by more than 44% since 1990.

It’s a remarkable achievement for a nation whose economy was built on coal, steel and heavy industry. But before anyone concludes Wales is comfortably on course to reach net zero, the latest analysis suggests a more complicated picture.

Much of the progress has come from cleaning up electricity generation and the decline of heavy industry. The sectors that affect people’s everyday lives – driving, farming and heating buildings – have proved much harder to decarbonise.

Those findings come from new analysis by Dr Matthew Sutton of Senedd Research, examining how Welsh greenhouse gas emissions have changed between 1990 and 2024.

Lowest emissions on record

The figures show Welsh greenhouse gas emissions fell by 8.6% during 2024, taking them to their lowest recorded level.

Overall emissions are now 44.2% lower than they were in 1990, meaning Wales appears on course to meet its current five-year carbon budget covering the period from 2021 to 2025.

The dramatic fall did not happen by accident.

Thirty years ago Wales was one of Europe’s most carbon-intensive economies. Coal-fired power stations generated electricity, steelmaking dominated large parts of south Wales and heavy industry produced millions of tonnes of carbon emissions every year.

Over the past three decades that picture has changed dramatically. Coal has almost disappeared from electricity generation, renewable energy has expanded rapidly and industry has become significantly more efficient.

Last year’s closure of the blast furnaces at Port Talbot accelerated that trend, contributing to one of the largest annual reductions in emissions since records began. Industrial emissions fell by around a quarter in a single year, while emissions from electricity generation continued their long-term decline.

Cars and cows remain the biggest challenge

The report shows the biggest climate challenge facing Wales is no longer heavy industry. Instead, it is the emissions produced by millions of everyday decisions.

Since 1990, emissions from domestic transport have fallen by just 7%, while agricultural emissions have reduced by only 14%.

Compare that with electricity generation, where emissions have fallen dramatically as coal-fired power stations have closed and renewable energy has expanded.

Reducing transport emissions is proving particularly difficult because there is no single solution.

Electric vehicle sales continue to grow, but petrol and diesel cars still dominate Welsh roads, particularly in rural areas where public transport is often limited. Freight traffic also remains an important part of the Welsh economy.

Unlike shutting down a power station, cutting transport emissions depends on millions of individual decisions about how people travel and the vehicles they choose to drive.

Agriculture presents a different challenge. Most farming emissions come from methane produced by livestock and nitrous oxide released from soils and fertilisers. Unlike emissions from factories or power stations, these cannot simply be eliminated through cleaner energy.

Instead, they require changes to farming practices, land management and food production – areas that have become increasingly politically sensitive in Wales over recent years.

Cardiff Bay now has a bigger role

One of the most significant findings is political rather than environmental.

For the first time, more than half of Wales’ greenhouse gas emissions now come from sectors that are largely the responsibility of the Welsh Government rather than Westminster. That shift has happened because emissions from reserved sectors, particularly heavy industry, have fallen much faster following changes at Port Talbot.

It means future progress towards net zero will increasingly depend on decisions taken in Cardiff Bay.

Transport, agriculture, buildings and land use all fall largely within devolved responsibilities, making Welsh Government policy increasingly important in determining whether Wales reaches its legally binding climate targets.

Still one of the UK’s highest emitters

Despite the progress, Wales continues to have one of the highest greenhouse gas emissions per person in the UK.

The report estimates emissions at 9.5 tonnes per person in 2024 – second only to Northern Ireland and around 65% above the global average.

That partly reflects Wales’ industrial history and the fact that it continues to host major industries, including steel production, oil refining, cement works and power generation that serve markets far beyond Wales itself.

The report also notes that Wales exports many emissions-intensive products, meaning the country’s “consumption emissions” are lower than its territorial emissions because much of what is produced here is consumed elsewhere.

The next test

The Welsh Government must publish a new emissions reduction plan before the end of the year, setting out how it intends to meet the next carbon budget covering the period to 2030.

According to Dr Sutton’s analysis, Wales will need to reduce emissions by another 34% from current levels to reach its interim 2030 target.

The figures suggest Wales has already achieved many of the easier gains in decarbonisation.

Cleaning up electricity generation and reducing heavy industrial emissions has delivered dramatic progress. The next phase is likely to be slower, more expensive and more politically contentious because it reaches into almost every aspect of daily life.

Decisions about transport, farming, home heating and land use are likely to dominate climate policy during the remainder of this Senedd term and well beyond it.

The latest figures show Wales has made significant progress over the past three decades.

The challenge now is whether it can maintain that momentum as the focus shifts from power stations and steelworks to the cars people drive, the homes they heat and the food they produce.