What’s on the minds of Welsh voters ahead of the Senedd election?

Kyle Bright

It’s easy to forget in the midst of analysis and speculation what’s most vital to any election: what are voters thinking, and what do they want to see from the seventh Senedd?

New opinion polling by YouGov gives insight into the views of Welsh voters, from their approval of political leaders to the issues they want to see a future government prioritise.

All eyes are on what promises to be a historic Senedd election in May with Labour in decline, a battle between pro-independence and unionist parties, and a new proportional voting system at play.

There’s a lot to delve into, but these are the four key takeaways that tell us where voters are sitting ahead of the May election.

No clear favourite for First Minister

Sometimes with polls, the ‘don’t knows’ tell a bigger story than the actual responses, and this case is no different. Nearly half of Welsh people are unsure who they would back as the best candidate to lead Wales.

It’s worth noting that this doesn’t necessarily mean that Welsh voters are unsure what party is best to run Wales, but it reflects a gap in terms of the awareness of Welsh leaders among the public which must be bridged to connect with voters and get them on side.

Approval ratings only underline this disconnect. Comparing Welsh and UK politicians, aside from the Plaid leader who ranks as most approved, the rest of the top five most approved politicians are UK leaders. Incumbent first minister Eluned Morgan takes sixth place.

A notable exception among the oldest group of voters is that they are more willing to back an unknown Reform leader in Wales than any of the serving Welsh party leaders.

Professor Laura McAllister, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, suggests that the delay in Reform’s selection of a leader works to their advantage: “…people love [UK leader Nigel Farage] or detest him. There’s nothing in the middle.

“The people who do love him are very steadfast in that strength of opinion. So there’s a strength in not having a Welsh leader, but they will have to address that at some point,”

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the youngest voters are the closest to backing a ‘favourite’ candidate for First Minister. Over a third of 16-24s would back Rhun ap Iorwerth to be First Minister.

Health is highest priority

Turning to the issues that matter most to the Welsh people, and they’re very much bread-and-butter issues that affect the day-to-day lives of voters. Health takes top spot, followed by the cost of living and the economy.

This comes in the context of record numbers of waits in Welsh hospitals in recent years, alongside 38% of Welsh people struggling to pay their energy bills at least once over the last three months.

A stand out issue for Reform voters is the issue of immigration. It is important to mention upfront that the powers over immigration policy lie with the UK Government in Westminster, not the Welsh Government.

Related policies, such as the Nation of Sanctuary which aims to help refugees and asylum seekers integrate into Welsh communities, have often taken attacks from Reform.

However, the polling shows the issue is uniquely significant to them. This gives some food for thought for Reform and their campaign – perhaps a pivot to give attention to higher ranking issues may be needed for them to better attract a wider range of voters in Wales.

On Reform’s policy strategy, McAllister added: “…until they produce a manifesto, it’s hard to decipher exactly what they would say.

“Even on immigration, they’re big headline narratives, but less in terms of actual operational policy.

“Whether that will restrict its base is debatable. The base is fairly solid, because what we’ve seen with recent opinion polling is not so much a decline in support for reform, but a plateau which is based on the people who didn’t know how they were going to vote, having now decided and switched to Plaid and the Greens mainly, not to Reform.”

Voters oppose abolition of the Senedd and independence

When it comes to the future constitutional path of Wales, voters are not fully enthusiastic for independence nor abolition of the Senedd.

Plaid Cymru, as a pro-independence party, will obviously need to balance this if they were to get elected. Their stance according to their leader is for them to “make the case” to voters for independence during their first term, rather than calling a referendum.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “We’ve made clear that May’s election is not an independence election.

“May’s election is about providing Wales with the ambitious leadership the people of Wales deserve to get to grips with issues in our NHS, help ease the cost of living crisis with our transformative childcare offer, raise educational standards to give every child the best start in life, and get our economy moving following 27 years of stagnation on Labour’s watch.”

Laura McAllister predicts we can expect to see Plaid’s treatment of the independence issue come under fire in this election campaign: “…you’ve seen it this week with Eluned Morgan that there’s a kind of language or narrative around separatism, as they term it, and Plaid pushing independence by the back door. That’s bound to happen and all the parties will attack Plaid on that.”

Pay attention though to the numbers who support abolishing the Senedd who intend to vote Reform or Conservative. Despite this being the case, with over two thirds in Reform’s case supporting the cause, the party line of both parties is to work with devolution. Could a shift in policy be on the cards in the future?

Wales needs its fair share of spending

On the topic of government spending, a majority of Welsh people think that Wales has been short-changed by recent UK governments.

Importantly here, this belief hasn’t changed despite the arrival of a Labour government in Westminster in 2024 – in fact, the percentage who believe Wales is underfunded has remained identical (57%).

This suggests that regardless of whether two Labour governments are in control at both ends of the M4, voters are not seeing enough change currently to satisfy that Wales is receiving its fair share.

Professor McAllister commented: “The fact that Eluned Morgan has shown herself to be so powerless in arguing the case for HS2 funding and the revenues from Crown Estate to no avail is hugely problematic for Labour.

“You don’t ask for something unless you’re pretty sure you’re going to get something in return. And I’m afraid everything Eluned Morgan’s asked for, she hasn’t been able to deliver on.”

When asked how a Plaid government would ensure Wales receives a fair share of funding, a spokesperson replied: “Plaid Cymru have no London boss – we’re only accountable to the people of Wales, and we will never stop demanding that Wales gets our fair share. Rhun ap Iorwerth, as First Minister, would be unrelenting in standing up for Wales.”

The issues with the allocation of spending to Wales are structural, and will be a major obstacle regardless of whichever parties enter government in May, according to McAllister: “Although Wales has done better from Barnett this year, it’s certainly nowhere near in terms of the benefits Scotland gets from the Barnett formula. So I think that’s quite telling.”

The Barnett formula is used to determine how much cash devolved governments receive in response to changes in funding by the UK Government in areas that are devolved. Therefore, if spending on health rises in England, Wales will receive equivalent funding.

She went on: “Until the funding settlement improves, there’s no way that any government, whether it’s a Plaid, or a coalition, or anything else, can actually address the structural economic problems that Wales faces. So a fair funding formula is probably going to be very high on any first ministers inbox list.”

You can find the full survey data provided by YouGov here.