Almost half of Labour voters would back Welsh independence, new YouGov poll shows

The independence march in Merthyr Tydfil on 7 September. Pictures by Lluniau Lleucu

42% of Labour voters would back Welsh Independence in a referendum, according to a new poll by YouGov.

The YouGov opinion poll commissioned earlier in August, which shows that about a third of the people of Wales would vote for an independent Wales if a referendum was held tomorrow.

With don’t knows discounted, 32% of the people of Wales would vore yes, including 68% of Plaid Cymru voters, 42% of Labour voters, 21% of Lib Dems and 11% of Conservatives.

South Wales West in the region with the highest support for independence at 37%, followed by  Cardiff and South Central at 36%, Mid and West Wales at 34%, North Wales at 27% and South Wales East at 26%.

The poll however shows a big age gap in support for Welsh independence, with almost half, 46%, backing it in the 16-24 age range but only 18% of over 65+ year olds doing so.

The question asked was “If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?”

 

‘Massive’

“Once again, this poll shows that around a third of the people of Wales who said they would vote would vote for independence if a referendum was held tomorrow,” YesCymru Chair, Sion Jobbins, said

“That’s a massive increase in support from just a few years ago.

“It also shows that support for independence is now mainstream and cross-party, with 42% of those who voted for Labour in 2019 saying that they would vote for independence if a referendum was held tomorrow.

“There is growing support throughout Wales ranging from 26% in the south east to 37% in the south west in favour of independence. This is an issue that has excited people throughout Wales.

“It is also heartwarming to see that the younger generations see that Westminster isn’t working for Wales, and that a better Wales is possible with 46% of 16-24 year olds saying that they would vote for independence if a referendum was held tomorrow.

“With the latest opinion polls in Scotland pointing towards 55% supporting independence, people in Wales need to start thinking what should happen in Wales when Scotland gains independence from Westminster rule – we imagine the support for an independent Wales would then be higher still.”

Total sample size was 1,044 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 29th July – 7th August 2020. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all adults in Wales (aged 16+).

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