Bookmakers tip Nigel Farage to be next UK party leader to step down
Nation.Cymru staff
Nigel Farage has become the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next major UK party leader to leave his post following the tactical miscalculation which saw him trigger a by-election in his own constituency.
The Reform UK leader resigned as MP for Clacton in an attempt to force a contest he believed would demonstrate public support for him amid controversy over a £5 million donation.
But the gamble has threatened to backfire, with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Restore Britain declining to field candidates and polling suggesting Count Binface could pose an unexpected challenge.
Against that backdrop, Farage is now priced at 2/1 to be the next UK party leader to depart, according to odds comparison service Oddschecker, giving him an implied probability of 33%.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey is the second favourite at 5/2, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski at 11/4.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is priced at 9/2, equivalent to an implied probability of 18%, while new Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considered the least likely of the five to make an early departure at 7/1.
The betting follows a difficult period for Mr Farage after controversy over a £5 million donation from crypto-billionaire and Reform donor Christopher Harborne.
Mr Farage is under investigation by Parliament’s standards commissioner over the gift. He has insisted he has done nothing wrong, while allies have portrayed the controversy as an “establishment stitch-up”.
Polling
Polling published last month by More in Common suggested the issue had gained significant public attention.
Just 16% of those surveyed said they had not heard about the donation, while 69% believed the affair was damaging to Mr Farage.
The same proportion said he should have declared the £5 million donation, including 41% of Reform voters.
Nearly two-thirds – 65% – said they did not believe Mr Farage was being unfairly targeted and thought the rules were being applied to him in the same way as any other MP.
The polling also suggested the controversy could pose a challenge to Mr Farage’s long-standing positioning as an anti-establishment politician.
Some 45% of respondents regarded him as part of the establishment, compared with 41% who said the same of Mr Burnham.
Cut through
Luke Tryl, executive director at More in Common, said: “We can now say for sure that Farage’s £5 million donation has now cut through, and it’s an unflattering look for the Reform leader.
“There’s a real risk for Farage that the public does not buy into the idea that he’s being unfairly treated by the establishment – even if they might feel sympathy for his arguments about the press being intrusive into his personal and family life, and may agree that the standards model needs to be updated.
“Nonetheless, the fact that almost many Britons consider Farage to be ‘of the establishment’ as Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch suggests that this scandal could undermine one of Farage’s key assets as a politician – that he’s not like the other politicians.”
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He’ll be back. He always is. Never held account for his crimes against us.
We could always send him to Russia for an extended exile… I mean break….
It’s not a “donation” if it’s given to an individual for their personal spending. It’s either a gift or a bribe.
His type are never flushed, they keep floating there.
Is it true he thought that resigning his seat would make the inquiry in the bungs would go away? You know, the financial irregularities and goings on involving Harbourn, Tice Cottrell and Cottrell mother? And how is Banks explaining the private detective he set on journalists when they started to look his way?
Follow the money.
https://www.thenerve.news/p/nigel-farage-christopher-harborne-george-cottrell-timeline-donations-crypto-boris-johnson-reform-uk
I see Yufus is out making stupid nasty claims again.
Reform’s average polling has slumped from a peak of 32.6% on 7 October last year to 23.4% as of today, per Pollcheck.
Still far, far too high for my liking but a 9.2pp decline means around 28.2% of voters who planned to back them at GE2029 have abandoned ship. At this rate they’ll be solid third behind the Tories by the end of 2026!
If Farage was to step down then it’s a possibility that Zia Yusuf could become the Reform Leader.
Of course that would be asking too much for Gammons to vote for a party with a Muslim leader and I hate to say this but it would be happy days for Rupert Lowe in that scenario.
What’s needed is Count Binface to be sworn in as a new MP on 13th August – that’s if he gets past Parliament’s metal detector! It’ll also save the poor people of Clacton having to vote again if Farage wins and is then found guilty.
Good Riddance to the Obnoxious Scamster/Crook