By-election highlights changing political landscape in former Labour stronghold

Twm Owen, Local Democracy Reporter

A local battle between Labour and Reform is leaving little room for candidates from parties not currently represented on a council to make their mark.

That’s what the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates hoping to re-establish their parties on Torfaen Borough Council say about the upcoming Llantarnam by-election.

It is expected to be keenly contested by Labour, despite it already enjoying a comfortable double figure majority in the council chamber, and Reform UK which aims to keep hold of all three seats in the Cwmbran ward.

Conservative candidate Roger Morgan acknowledged Reform has made “great headway” but warns it could become as dominant as Labour has been locally while Liberal Democrat Brendan Roberts said “politics is a crowded pool”.

The Conservatives lost all their Torfaen council seats at the 2022 elections while the Liberal Democrats have been without representation at Pontypool’s Civic Centre for more than a decade.

Plaid Cymru, which had its first major electoral success in Torfaen at May’s Senedd election, and the Green Party are hoping to win their first seats on the borough council at the Thursday, July 2 poll.

The vacancy is a result of Reform’s rise, and success at May’s Senedd election, when it became the largest opposition party in Wales, and the decline of the once dominant Welsh Labour.

Reform’s success saw Jason O’Connell, who had been one of the party’s three councillors in Llantarnam, elected in the Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr constituency. He has had to resign his council seat to take his place in the Senedd.

Labour has selected Cwmbran Community Councillor Sean Wharton and will be keen for success following its Senedd drubbing while the Reform candidate is Jonathan Hollins.

“I think like any by-election it is a two horse race,” said Lib Dem Mr Roberts of the battle between Labour and Reform in Llantarnam.

He stood as a candidate for the Lib Dems who finished sixth of 11 parties and independents in the Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency at the Senedd election, and said: “This is an opportunity to see what baseline level of support there is for the Liberal Democrats. I know it will be a squeeze, it was in the Senedd election. Politics is a crowded pool when six parties are all nudging for one seat.”

Mr Roberts is a community councillor in Henllys and three years ago petitioned Torfaen council to switch to a more proportional system for elections, something dismissed almost out of hand at the time.

“Like with the petition if I see an issue I will bring it up no questions asked,” said Mr Roberts.

Conservative candidate Mr Morgan, who is also a community councillor, in Ponthir, is a retired technician who worked at a factory making CDs and DVDs at the Llantarnam Park industrial estate.

“I’ve always been a working person and some might think that’s a bit strange because I’m a Conservative but that’s the way I am and how I’ve always voted,” said Mr Morgan.

He said the by-election will also help the Conservatives prepare for next year’s council elections as he believes Torfaen would benefit from a greater range of political parties.

Labour was the only political party returned at the 2022 elections, winning 30 of the council’s 40 seats, with the remainder won by independents.

Three independents

However following Reform UK’s strong showing at the 2024 general election, which included a second place finish in Torfaen, three independents, who all represented Llantarnam, formed Reform UK’s first council group in Wales.

They added to their number at the Treveith and Penygarn by-election in February 2025, the first time Reform won a council seat via the ballot box in Wales and have since also won a number of seats at the community council level in Cwmbran and Pontypool.

Conservative Mr Roberts said: “Reform have no doubt made great headway and some of their policies are quite good and some are quite bad but will we land up in the same position of them having a massive majority (on the council)?

“I would like to see a more balanced council with different views. I don’t think massive majorities are good and I’d say that about the Tory shires as well.”

Registered voters aged 16 and over can vote in the Llantarnam by-election and there is no need to show ID.

Full list of candidates 

Tom Pedley, Green Party

Roger Morgan, Welsh Conservative

Jonathan Hollins, Reform UK

Brendan Roberts, Welsh Liberal Democrats

Joe Tresidder, Plaid Cymru

Sean Wharton, Welsh Labour