By-election victory gives Reform its first council seat in Cardiff
Martin Shipton
Reform UK has gained its first seat on Cardiff council, comfortably winning a by-election in the Trowbridge ward at the eastern extremity of the capital and with Labour pushed into third place by the Liberal Democrats.
Edward Topham of Reform is the new councillor, who got 1,142 votes (39.6%), 461 votes ahead of the Lib Dems’ Chris Cogger, with 681 votes (23.6%).
Labour’s Gary Bowen-Thomson got 615 votes (21.3%, with Plaid Cymru’s Carol Ann Falcon 392 votes further behind with 223 (7.7%).
The Conservatives’ Joe Roberts got 90 votes (3.1%), the Green Party’s Jess Ryan 77 (2.3%), while Propel’s Lennox came last with 63 (2.2%).
There was a turnout of just 24.7%.
Resignation
The by-election was caused by the resignation of former Labour councillor Chris Lay, who moved to Telford, Shropshire for work.
The result was a huge turnaround from the last Cardiff-wide council election in 2022, when Labour took all three seats in the ward with its candidates getting 1,545 votes (57.6%), 1,470 (54.8%) and 1,398 (52.1%). The three Conservative candidates were the runners-up with 528 votes (19.7%), 480 (17.9%) and 449 (16.7%).
Labour’s poor showing was another bitter blow to the party, which retained a seat in Cardiff’s Llanrumney ward at a by-election in July, but lost a seat to the Green Party in the Grangetown by-election in August.
A Labour source said: “Having knocked on quite a few doors it was obvious that we were going to lose. Voters who were previously marked as Labour supporters said they wouldn’t be voting, while others must have voted for Reform.”
The ward is predominantly white working class and also contains the neighbouring district of St Mellons, which infamously made UK-wide headlines in the 1990s when the then Tory Secretary of State for Wales John Redwood caused outrage when visiting the Cardiff suburb by criticising pregnancy outside marriage as a way for women to get free council homes and benefits.
Spy
During the by-election campaign it emerged that the Plaid Cymru candidate had earlier this year been a member of Reform UK for some months. She claimed she had joined the party as a spy to find out about its attitude towards food banks.
The area is currently represented at the Senedd by former First Minister Vaughan Gething, who surprisingly campaigned in the by-election despite resigning last year after accepting £200,000 in donations from businessman David Neal, who had received two suspended prison sentences for dumping toxic sludge in the protected wetlands landscape of the Gwent Levels.
Mr Gething has also been supporting another businessman, Nigel Roberts, who wants to build a business park in St Mellons as well as a mainline railway station called Cardiff Parkway.
The Trowbridge result comes just two days after a YouGov Senedd voting intention poll for Cardiff University and ITV Wales suggested Labour’s vote in Wales was in meltdown at just 14% while the battle for first place was between Plaid Cymru at 30$ and Reform at 29%.
Political attention now turns to the October 23 Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, caused by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David. It is expected to be a closely fought battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has advised Labour voters to keep Reform out by voting for Plaid.
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A massive win for Reform and a large increase in the Lib Dem vote who were behind Plaid in 2022. Very interesting that a lot of the previous Labour vote there and not Plaid. I’ll be criticised again but this is another poor by election result for Plaid. In stark contrast to Lib Dems, Plaid lost votes in this by election. When was the last time they actually won a seat from another party? The only poll they seem to top are from the pollsters not the electorate. Caerphilly where they have has one of their largest presence outside of… Read more »
I believe the last county council by-election Plaid won was the Pontypridd Town by-election two months ago, unless there’s one I’ve forgotten.
That was already a Plaid seat. Last by election gain was Cricieth in Gwynedd way back in February 2024 from independents. When did Plaid last gain a seat off another party?
Suspect the reason why Plaid Cymru did badly was because the candidate was previously a member of Reform UK. Instead of just admitting that was because she was previously angry and misguided she subsequently stated a fantasy about being tasked to infiltrate Reform to find out what they were up to. Whether the fantasy was of her own making or a ‘reputation management’ rouse from Plaid Cymru HQ we don’t know. What we do know is that the electorate of Trowbridge didn’t buy it.
I agree. Infiltrating Reform was an interesting angle but I’m afraid it has backfired if true. For me, you cannot be, or have been, for whatever reason, a member of Reform UK or you lose my vote. Now that the election has gone, it is time to find out who she really is. Can Rhun help us out with this because until he does, she will be a liability. The distrust continues.
“The only poll they (plaid) seem to top are from the pollsters not the electorate”…..er think you’ll find opinion polls are based on the views of the ‘electorate’
How polls are weighted can make a huge difference. It’s not a matter of just goi8ng up to 2000 people. All I am saying is that this Plaid surge is not reflected in by elections. In fact, in the last three Cardiff by elections we have seen huge increases by Lib Dems, Greens and Reform but not by Plaid.
“think you’ll find opinion polls are based on the views of the ‘electorate’”
Er.. I think you’ll find that opinion polls are based on the views of the very small section of the electorate who happen to be at home, during weekday daytimes to answer the phone to the pollsters. Everyone else is at work earning a living and paying tax.
You obviously don’t understand how polling works.
It’s a loss for the St mellons and Trowbridge residents. Now we have 3 councillors that don’t live in our area.
it is so hard to get a house in this area with the waiting list over 2 years
You would have thought that Labour and Reform would have tried to use local talent to represent them in a councillor election. The Reform councillor was not even selected to represent Reform on his own area of Llanrumney in their recent elections.
@Adrian 60% of voters didn’t want Reform so residents didn’t get what they wanted.
Based on the 24.7% turnout, the % of the population who didn’t get what they wanted, don’t have a leg to stand on.
The Labour councillor who resigned had moved away months ago.
And now you will start to see more idiocy from this bunch of idiots.
Reform could sweep in a low turn out.
Bye Bye Wales. Been nice knowing you.
What would’ve happened with preference voting?
Only the 3.1% Con voters would’ve had Reform down as their second preference so the Abolish Wales party would never have reached the 50% majority threshold needed to win.
Probably the second choice of Labour and PC voters would’ve helped the Dems over the line.
Imagine that, a winner the majority were happy enough with.
Truly scary that we share our communities with such dangerous individuals. Imagine living in Wales and despising its culture and people enough to support those that want it destroyed.
It’s very disappointing and almost beyond belief that voters in Cardiff (Trowbridge ward) have been taken in by a candidate from Reform, a far-right English Nationalist party that’s more Tory than the Tories. This is essentially an undemocratic party with a self-appointed leader, Nigel Farage. He is a big pal of US President, Trump, whose profoundly dishonest character was very clearly shown by the recent TV programme “Trump v The Truth”. It illustrated no fewer than 102 of Trump’s lies recently during the last decade. Farage is doing a good job of aping him.
I agree about Farage; but is it really almost beyond belief in an area like Trowbridge? I think not. It’s a verdict on the dismal performance of the mainstream parties and it’s happening pretty much everywhere.
Turnout was 24 percent so barely 10 percent actually voted for Reform. Hardly a phenomenon are they? This was always going to go to Reform anyway.
Once again the labour vote has collapsed in a seat they held and – looking at the figures – it looks like once again a chunk of the labour vote has gone directly to Reform. If this is repeated in Caerphilly next month then there’s a strong possibility they’ll win the by-election. And if they do win in Caerphilly afraid to say then we are going to have to get our progressive heads around the grim fact there’s a better than even chance Farage’s party will be the largest party in the Senedd after next May’s elections.
I agree, yet the polls claim that the Reform vote are ex Tories. That cannot be right and the polls are not taking into account that people are voting for the first time
Not seen any polls indicating that reform voters are all ‘ex tories’….more likely people who voted for Brexit (remember that a chunk of what used to labour voters voted for brexit).
This is what happens when the electorate doesn’t bother turning out to vote,
you let the eNgLisH nationalists in, If you want to be controlled by England why don’t you go and live there?
Because theyre not content that their country is being destroyed, and want Wales gone with them.
Reform Party UK – What is it?
It is essentially the same party as its predecessors – the Brexit and UKIP parties. Yes, under a new name, but the same political malaise. Same dangerous, clever, manipulative, rabble rousing, leader. Same seething, stirring the bubbling, boiling, cauldron of discontent. It is ultra-British nationalist – it cares absolutely nothing for Wales. Spawned by existential angsts brought on by a continuing inability to come to terms with loss of empire, status, former prestige, exceptionalism, senses of entitlement. Now replaced by an infantile nostalgia, regressiveness, insularism, xenophobia, inability to live with others as equals.
It can’t be British nationalist, ultra or not, if it spurns indigenous British culture.
Yes. Among the many falsehoods of Reform, the worst is the claim to be a “new” party. They are the same morons who composed UKIP and the Brexit Party, and before that, the BNP.
1232 voted FOR hate movements. 1659 voted AGAINST. Fragmentation and intransigence are our enemy. The turnout of the hate movements combined with the intransigence of the rest landed us in this mess post 2016. A less than 25% turnout shows that in nine years, nothing has been learned. Even in a small council election like this, stamping out the hate movements matters. Consider them little fires in constant need of damping down and when you are called on, like a retained firefighter, you come out with your ballot box ‘hose’ and PUT IT OUT! If you do not, you will… Read more »
The answer is preference voting so the anti-hate and pro Wales vote isn’t split.
I have no doubt that next year more people will vote for left of centre/progressive parties than far-right/right wing parties. The problem is that there are more parties on the left to vote for which could allow the reactionary right to win. Plaid need to hammer home that voting Green, Propel and in most places Lib Dem is just doing Farage’s work.
Same goes for voting Labour.
Look at what happened to Jimmy Kimmel. Do we really want to go down the same path? At least the US has a written constitution, unlike the UK. Moreover Reform want to take us out of the European Convention on Human Rights..
Sadly many in the UK who don’t like Trump see zero connections with him and Farage. Since Trump first became President I have been exasperated by how many people talk sneeringly about US politics but are almost blind to what has been happening in the UK since 2016.
US constitution is being torn up. They will be lucky to have fair midterms. GOP know what they are doing and they are doing it fast, the same people are involved with farage and kemi. We have no protections compared to the US. Farage can do more damage quicker.
farage and the GOP know what they have to do in the UK and it will be quick, bad and probably violent when farage lets his storm troopers out to sort out people.
The one thing this does show is that voter apathy will hand Reform wins. They have a highly motivated core vote but I’m not sure they’ll be able to increase their vote share far beyond those already voting.
I’ll never understand not taking the brief time, at most a couple of times a year, to vote.
Democracy at work.
Flood the systems with lies and you can see how you swing elections.
But they will find out soon what it has cost them.
Democracy only works if you have an intelligent and well-informed populace. We don’t have that in the UK. As H.L. Mencken pointed out, “democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance”.
I just don’t understand people here voting reform. When they were Ukip they were campaigning in England to scrap the Barnett formula, take money from Cymru, Scotland and N Ireland, so they could give England an extra £8 billion a year. The same people are now in charge of Reform, do leopards ever change their spots?
Seeing Reform UK’s dire record in office recently, there’s a distinct possibility he’ll either be sacked, resign due to misconduct , or be removed because of past malicious social media posts.
Ych a fi!
This is how they get in. They vote in the elections nobody pays much attention to.
Those of us who think voting does not matter in the small elections, there are seats decided on three two or even one vote.
Unless you want your country in the hands of these people (some do. I do not want a party bankrolled by billionaire idelogical racial purists), vote EVERY time there is an election
My whole incentive for every election is to get one into the Tories and by that I mean a metaphorical hammer blow and this has been heightened by their ultra rogue extremist ‘family’ Deform YUK (your UK). Get the turnouts up for every election and demonstrate that WE DO NOT WANT THEM!
As things presently stand, Reform look to me pretty certain to have a significant presence in the new Senedd after next May, which will be given to them primarily by (a) the preponderance of elderly nostalgic retirees from England’s north-west who’ve opted to end their days living in pleasant places along the north Welsh coast, and (b) voters in the old industrial areas of the south and north-east who feel that successive governments, whether in Cardiff Bay or in Westminster, have done little enough for them over the last forty years and are ready to back a political party which… Read more »
I agree with you; but I do see an outside chance of a Reform/Tory coalition. Labour is melting away like snow in July and Plaid don’t seem to be picking up votes despite the polls.
I’d count that as an outside chance too, but as of now I think that it’s quite unlikely. Unless the opinion polls are very wrong or voter opinion shifts significantly over the next few months, the Tories would be very much the junior partner to Reform in a coalition.
And that role would be such a humiliation for them that I think they’d prefer opting for opposition.
Your dream of a RefCon coalition might’ve been possible had Johnson not purged the moderates in 2019. Those that remained with the party are all moving to Reform leaving no-one behind, probably not even the shadow front bench, to form a coalition with.