Caerphilly by-election ‘over before it started’ – ex-minister

Emily Price 

The Caerphilly by-election was a “cataclysmic disaster” for Labour and the contest was “over before it started”, according to a former Welsh Government minister.

Labour Senedd Member for Pontypridd Mick Antoniw made the blunt comments in a recently published online opinion column for Labour List.

He has been a Labour member for 52 years, served in the Welsh Government as Counsel General under three first ministers and served as Minister for the Constitution in the Senedd.

In his opinion article, Antoniw described Labour’s historic loss of the key Senedd seat as a “culmination of so many failures”.

The former minister warned that the “political tornado” in the south Wales constituency not far from his own should serve as an “important lesson” for all political parties.

It comes following several other brutally honest appraisals penned by sitting Labour Senedd Members.

The Caerphilly by-election was triggered following the sudden death of Labour’s Hefin David.

Although Reform’s Llyr Powell was predicted to win the constituency from Labour, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle triumphed on polling day with 47% of the vote, followed closing by Reform on 35%.

Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came a distant third with only 11% of the vote.

Antoniw described Plaid’s win as a defeat which may well be the turning point in the “political fortunes of Farage and Reform”.

However, in his column he explained how despite Tunnicliffe being an “excellent local candidate” for Labour the campaign was lost even before it started.

Tactical voting

He wrote: “Occurring just over six months before the Senedd elections in May 2026, it is the last by-election on the old first past the post voting system, which is being replaced by a proportional voting list system. It is the last election where tactical voting was able to take place. And take place it did – with a vengeance.

“Right from the start, there were warning signs when the selection process disqualified the deputy leader of the Council from being considered for selection on the final list.

“Then the resignation and defection of the Labour Council leader over allegations of political manipulation reinforced other criticisms of the selection processes and central UK Labour policies sank what was already a floundering campaign.”

Immigration issues were key to Reform’s campaign in Caerphilly despite ministers in the Senedd having no power over immigration policy as it is a “reserved power” for the UK Government.

Antoniw claimed that “top-down command and control of the Parliamentary Labour Party had “sterilised political debate” and allowed Reform to “set the agenda”.

‘Propoganda’

He wrote: “Our very strength as socialists is in the diversity of debate, ideas, aspirations and the motivation for change. Which is why so many joined the Labour Party and have given so much of their lives to creating a better society.

“We allowed Reform to set the agenda, to make immigration the number one issue.

“Instead of standing up to the overt and subliminal racism inherent in Reform propaganda, we have, for too long, tried to ‘out Reform Reform’ instead of calling them out, exposing the fallacy in their arguments and their hatred and divisiveness.

“We failed to stand up for immigrants as strongly as we should have. The ‘Island of strangers’ messaging was devastating for many of our members, retracted, but too late.”

‘Brave’

During Reform’s Caerphilly by-election campaign the party focused on misinformation about the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary policy.

The majority of the scheme’s funding was spent on resettling Ukrainians that had escaped Vladimir Putin’s war. But Nigel Farage’s party claimed it had been spend on housing asylum seekers in Wales.

Pontypridd MS Mick Antoniw comes from a Ukrainian family, with a Danish mother and a Ukrainian father who sought refugee status in the UK following World War II.

In recent years he had made several trips to Ukraine to hand deliver vital aid to the front line.

In his article for Labour List, Antoniw wrote:” In Caerphilly, it was a fantastic and brave group of Ukrainians who took Reform on in support of the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary policy.

“Their exposure of the far right and Reform’s links and associations with Putin began to resonate with much of the public.

“As the campaign became more desperate the tone of Labour messaging lost credibility.

“Whatever our differences with Plaid Cymru there are many policy areas where we have much in common and have had to work collectively to govern Wales.

“They are not the other side of the coin from Reform. Labour voters turned to supporting the only party that could defeat Reform, and on this occasion, that was Plaid Cymru.”

‘Groundbreaking’

Antoniw further criticised Welsh Labour’s campaign strategy in Caerphilly saying his party “barely highlighted” the Welsh Government’s most groundbreaking policies such as the £2.8 billion 21st century schools rebuilding programme, the recently updated South Wales Metro rail line and the £2 billion heads of the valleys road.

He wrote: “There are many questions to be answered about the campaign and its domination by London-centric messaging that will need to be answered.

“One of the dilemmas facing Welsh Labour is the way it has been increasingly sidelined by UK Labour in an effort to bring it under greater central control and to contain its devolution aspirations.

“The muting of the ‘Welsh Labour’ brand and the cynical abandonment of the inspirational reforms proposed by former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and the recommendations of the independent commission on the future of Wales led by Dr Rowan Williamson and Professor Laura McAllister all testify to the continuation by the UK government of a version of the muscular unionism of the Tories after Theresa May left office.”

Antoniw accused the Welsh Office working as “Westminster’s voice in Wales as opposed to Wales voice in Westminster” adding that it “undermines the development and operation of the newly established Inter-Governmental Framework”.

He wrote: “The political challenge for many in Westminster Labour is to recognise that the UK has changed. Its politics have become more local and regional.

“Sovereignty no longer lies solely in Westminster, but in four parliaments, which pass laws on the basis of democratic mandates.

“We have to abandon this old and outdated Victorian style of over-centralised governance. There are some moves to change this in England, but in Wales, it seems to have ground to a halt and even shifted into reverse.

“This is self-defeating. Have we learned nothing from the demise of Scottish Labour almost two decades ago?”

The Labour MS announced earlier this year he will not stand for re-election in May.

In his frank opinion column, Antoniw called for Welsh Labour to “properly and fully devolve’ ahead of the Senedd election next year.

He wrote: “Two years ago, the Welsh Labour conference overwhelmingly passed a call for the devolution of the Labour rule book. This has been totally ignored.

“Where is the democracy in this? We are losing members in droves. Democracy and our socialist politics demand much better.

“In six months’ time, Welsh Labour can win the Senedd elections. But it will be incredibly difficult if there is no radical change in politics and organisation.

“I write this because I know we can win, and that as democratic socialists it is our duty to win to build on the progress we have made in Wales over the past 100 years.

“If we want to win we have to be radical and we have to be Labour. We have to make prosperity, equality and tackling poverty our Welsh Labour cornerstones.

“I am sure there are many who will disagree with my analysis, or will want discredit it. That is fine, but we cannot afford not to have an honest and open debate.”