Cancer cases in Wales projected to rise 11% over next 10 years

The number of cancer cases in Wales is projected to rise by 11 per cent over the next decade, according to new modelling from Public Health Wales.

The findings, published today in a report titled Cancer in Wales – trends and projections, estimate that around 24,000 new cancer cases will be diagnosed in 2035, up from 21,600 expected this year.

The increase is largely attributed to Wales’s ageing population.

Between 2005 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 and over is estimated to have grown by 186,000. That figure is set to rise by another 135,000 over the following decade, with older age one of the strongest risk factors for developing cancer.

Leading causes of death

Cancer is already one of the nation’s leading causes of death, responsible for around one in four deaths in Wales.

In 2024, 9,123 deaths were recorded as caused by cancer – 10 per cent higher than in 2002, despite improvements in survival rates.

The four most common cancers – prostate, breast, lung and colorectal – account for just over half of all cases. Lung cancer causes the highest number of cancer deaths, often because it is detected at a later stage.

By 2035, cases of prostate, breast and bowel cancer are projected to increase, while no estimate has been made for lung cancer due to uncertainties around smoking patterns and the planned introduction of a national screening programme in 2027.

Inequalities

The report also highlights continuing inequalities in cancer outcomes. After accounting for age, cancer incidence is 20 per cent higher in the most deprived communities compared to the least deprived, with survival rates also lower. These gaps have shown little sign of narrowing in the past two decades.

Public Health Wales said around 40 per cent of cancers could be prevented through changes in lifestyle and risk factors such as smoking, obesity, alcohol consumption, HPV infection and overexposure to UV radiation.

Dr Llion Davies, Consultant in Public Health Medicine at Public Health Wales, said prevention and early diagnosis must be a priority.

“As the number of people in older age groups increases, we predict that more people will be diagnosed with cancer,” he said. “Investing in effective prevention and early diagnosis is crucial, particularly given existing inequalities and the projected rise in cases.”

He added that improving the wider “building blocks of health” – such as housing, employment, education and community connections – would also be essential in tackling inequalities in cancer outcomes.