Ceiling ‘massively’ raised on Green vote in Wales, party leader says
The leader of the Green Party has set ambitious targets for the Senedd election next year.
Speaking at the Wales Green Party conference on Saturday, Zack Polanski said the ceiling on the Green vote in Wales has been “massively” raised.
Currently, the Senedd is the only parliament in the UK where the Greens have never been represented.
Mr Polanski told the PA news agency: “I think the change in the voting system for proportional representation… I think that means the ceiling on the Green Party vote in Wales has massively just been raised.”
He added: “Wales is actually one of the priorities coming up to May, and that’s because we have these huge Senedd elections.
“Most importantly, it’s a priority because Wales, Welsh people deserve representation, and they deserve representation that’s genuinely based in their local community, where they are serving the local community rather than power and wealth.
“But I think second, zooming out, there’s another priority for me as the leader of England and Wales, is that I think Wales is a demonstration of where the future for Westminster Government is.
“A failing Labour, complacent administration, and the potential rise of a right-wing party and a right-wing force.
“So I think winning in Wales, most importantly, is for the Welsh people, but also, I think it’s a wider question too, about demonstrating in the next general election, how we’ll both challenge this failing Labour Government and take the fight to Reform.”
“I think it’s very possible, if not verging on likely, without being complacent, that we can win two (members),” he added.
“But I think increasingly we’re having conversations about, what do those third and fourth look like?”
Caerphilly
A by-election in Caerphilly last month saw Labour lose a seat in one of its strongholds to Plaid Cymru, which secured a comfortable win ahead of Reform UK in second.
Mr Polanski said: “I’ve got a lot of time for (Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth) politically.
“The change in the voting system means that there’s no need to have these pre-electoral conversations.
“I think, after the results are announced… Then it’s absolutely vital we do have public negotiations, and I’d really welcome that with Plaid.”
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Very positive stuff
I doubt that the Greens will do spectacularly well in next year’s Senedd election, but under the new voting system I’d be surprised were they not to win any seats at all.
Clearly the Greens are doing well in the UK polls at the moment. However, I’m old enough to remember similar Green confidence for Assembly elections in the past. I regret voting Green in an Assembly vote having been taken on by their hype that they were very close to winning a seat. They were nowhere near. Fact is parties will need 12% in a constituency to gain seat. So far the polls in Wales show the Greens are nowhere near getting more than 2 seats in Wales.
I think the tactical way for Greens is to watch the polls in the run-up to the election, and vote Green where there is enough support, or Plaid otherwise. 12% is a reasonable threshold for that. In the meantime, we have a few months to campaign – it’s especially important to encourage people to vote who otherwise wouldn’t vote at all.
The bigger picture for me is that the left is getting very crowded in Wales (particularly in the unlikely event that Corbyn & co turn up as well). The new voting system blunts scope for tactical voting and all this benefits only Reform.
Correct. Greens will get 2 seats at the most in next Senedd election. 100% true to say that tens of thousands of Green votes across Wales will not elect any members and only help Reform. I have yet to hear any Green member or supporter put a sensible arguement against this.
The new voting system makes it impossible for Reform to get a majority of seats with only 1/3 of the vote. Everyone who shows up and votes for a left-wing party will make it harder for Reform to gain seats.
I disagree. The new system makes it impossible for anyone to get a majority; but the more the left vote splinters, the more likely it is that those parties won’t reach the threshold for election in places. That means Reform could pick seats they wouldn’t otherwise get.
Tactical voting will need to work at the national level instead of per constituency.