Conservative support plummets in Wales – YouGov poll

Boris Johnson. Picture by British Embassy Belgrade (CC BY 2.0).

Support for the Conservatives has “plummeted” in Wales, according to Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University.

The new ITV/YouGov poll puts support for Labour and Plaid Cymru up 5% and 4% respectively at Westminster but support for the Conservative party has fallen a massive 11%.

The results in full for Welsh Westminster voting intention are:

Lab: 39% (+5)

Con: 35% (-11)

Plaid: 15% (+4)

Lib Dem: 5% (+1)

Green: 3% (+1)

Brexit Party: 2% (-1)

Professor Roger Awan-Scully who commissioned the poll said the results were related to perceptions of how the Labour Welsh Government and Conservative UK Government had handled Covid-19.

“Why has this happened? Later today we’re publishing results of how the governments have handled Covid and party leadership,” he said.

“And that I can tell you will do a lot to explain the dramatic change in party fortunes in Wales.”

Writing on his website he said that a fall of 11% between polls was “highly unusual”.

“In Wales, we are less than a year away from the next Senedd election, and the political fallout of the current crisis is likely to play a big part in shaping the fortunes of all the parties in the run up to that campaign,” he said.

“Our previous Welsh Political Barometer poll produced historically good results for the Conservatives. But I said at the time that the electoral landscape could alter very rapidly – and so it has.”

 

Senedd

The Senedd election poll paints a similar picture, with Labour back in the lead after a run of second-place finishes since January. The constituency poll showed:

Labour: 34% (+2)
Con: 31% (-7)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3)
Lib Dems: 5% (+1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-1)
Green: 3% (+0)

Regional List Vote:

Labour: 32% (+3)

Conservative: 28% (-9)

Plaid Cymru: 24% (+6)

ATWA: 5% (+2)

Brexit Party: 3% (-1)

Green: 3% (+0)

Seats change on 2016:

Labour: 25 seats (-4)

Conservative: 19 seats (+8)

Plaid Cymru: 15 seats (+3)

Lib Dems: 1 seat (+0)

YouGov surveyed 1,021 Welsh adults between 29th May and 1st June 2020. Cardiff University and ITV Wales commissioned this internet panel poll.

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