Conservatives could lose Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouth in General Election, new poll projects
The Conservatives could lose seats they have held on to since 2005 and 2010 such as Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan if a General Election were to be held today, according to a new poll.
The seats held by long-time MPs David Davies and Alun Cairns would be among those to flip should the current polls be maintained into the next election, according to an analysis by the New Stateman based on polls by Survation.
The poll has the Conservatives losing all but two of their 14 seats in Wales – Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.
Previous polls have indicated that the Conservatives could lose all of the seats they gained in 2019 including Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, and Bridgend.
Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Vale of Clwyd, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, could also be toppled.
However, this is the first poll projection to suggest that Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan could also be won by Labour.
Writing in the New Statesman, Ben Walker said that a large number of swing voters in key seats had made election swings more volatile than in the past.
“In a general election held today, nearly one in ten of the 2019 Tory vote would switch to Labour – a significant change from a few months ago. With that, Labour would net 116 seats and take a commanding lead as the largest party in parliament,” he said.
“The vast majority of the 2019 Conservative intake would be left jobless, while safer Tories in the so-called Blue Wall would also struggle.”
In practice, the next General Election is unlikely to be fought on the current seats as the number in Wales are due to be cut from 40 to 32.
Brecon and Radnor will be merged with parts of Neath and Montgomeryshire with Clwyd South.
Monmouth will dig into Newport East while the Vale of Glamorgan will lose part of the south-west of Cardiff.
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