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Conservatives could lose Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouth in General Election, new poll projects

29 Jan 2022 2 minutes Read
David T.C. Davies and Alun Cairns. Pictures by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0).

The Conservatives could lose seats they have held on to since 2005 and 2010 such as Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan if a General Election were to be held today, according to a new poll.

The seats held by long-time MPs David Davies and Alun Cairns would be among those to flip should the current polls be maintained into the next election, according to an analysis by the New Stateman based on polls by Survation.

The poll has the Conservatives losing all but two of their 14 seats in Wales – Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

Previous polls have indicated that the Conservatives could lose all of the seats they gained in 2019 including Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, and Bridgend.

Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Vale of Clwyd, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, could also be toppled.

However, this is the first poll projection to suggest that Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan could also be won by Labour.

Writing in the New Statesman, Ben Walker said that a large number of swing voters in key seats had made election swings more volatile than in the past.

“In a general election held today, nearly one in ten of the 2019 Tory vote would switch to Labour – a significant change from a few months ago. With that, Labour would net 116 seats and take a commanding lead as the largest party in parliament,” he said.

“The vast majority of the 2019 Conservative intake would be left jobless, while safer Tories in the so-called Blue Wall would also struggle.”

In practice, the next General Election is unlikely to be fought on the current seats as the number in Wales are due to be cut from 40 to 32.

Brecon and Radnor will be merged with parts of Neath and Montgomeryshire with Clwyd South.

Monmouth will dig into Newport East while the Vale of Glamorgan will lose part of the south-west of Cardiff.


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Gareth Wyn Jones
Gareth Wyn Jones
3 months ago

The worst bit of this article is that there would be still 2 tories in Cymru, after David ‘Top Cat’ Davies came after the the Nation on Thursday in as authoritarian way to say the least, we should make sure we have an electoral alliance to oust him regardless of the polls, what can I say about Simon Tart? The word ‘Bradwr’ could have been invented for him alone

Gareth Wyn Jones
Gareth Wyn Jones
3 months ago

Cairns definitely should be sent to spend more time with his ill gotten gains

Malcolmrj
Malcolmrj
3 months ago

That’s great news but the only downside is that labour would Gain the seats have you seen them standing up for WALES in parliament presently I haven’t heard one labour Welsh MP speaking up about Wales having to pay to make the coal s**g tips safe the British coal taking All the revenue and leaving Wales pay for the clean up also the crown estate money that is made in Wales goes to the English government Scotland and Ireland keep the money that’s made in they’re countries where have Welsh labour MPs been?? Very quiet has from what I can… Read more »

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
3 months ago
Reply to  Malcolmrj

More Cymru First in Cymru too?

Jeff33
Jeff33
3 months ago
Reply to  Malcolmrj

Like it or not Plaid and other nationalist won’t gain seat. For the time being the best we should aim for is expelling the tories.

Mick Tems
Mick Tems
3 months ago

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Erisian
Erisian
3 months ago

I can’t resist taking the Mick(ado)…

We’ve got ’em on the list — We’ve got ’em on the list;
And they’ll none of ’em be missed — they’ll none of ’em be missed

defaid
defaid
3 months ago

“losing all but two of their 14 seats in Wales – Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.”

Living in Powys, this embarasses and shames me.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
3 months ago
Reply to  defaid

You have my sympathy defaid, You are not alone I’m sure, every one of my old friends along the Banwy, the Vyrnwy and the Hafren will feel the same…

Kerry Davies
Kerry Davies
3 months ago
Reply to  defaid

44% of those of voting age in Powys were born in England. They get upset about immigration of 13.4% at the pre-Brexit peak. Imagine if they had 44% from just one country?

Jeff33
Jeff33
3 months ago
Reply to  defaid

Especially given the B&R MP’s voting record (especially selling out farmers) and failure to represent all constituents.

Rob
Rob
3 months ago

If your in the Vale of Glamorgan please vote out Cairns. He cares more about Bristol than your own constituency

Quornby
Quornby
3 months ago

A Wales without Cairns? Oh joy! Perhaps a photo-op eating ice cream with the fat liar will save his miserable hide? Davies is just a caricature of a time serving Tory toady. Plenty of them available, trembling on the brink of their self importance.

Last edited 3 months ago by Quornby
Grayham Jones
3 months ago

Let get this election started kick all English party’s out of wales that’s the Tories Labour and all Brexit party’s stop being little Englanders and and be proud to be welsh it’s time for a new wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
3 months ago

Let’s hope this comes to fruition and both get their P45 the next General Election. Because they serve no positive purpose to Wales other than being a Conservative cancer, who aid and abet Whitehall attacks towards Senedd competency, who happily facilitate incursions into Welsh devolution and are willing participants in the strangulation of our sovereignty as a country. The damning evidence is there for all to see.

Last edited 3 months ago by Y Cymro
Gregory Foley
Gregory Foley
3 months ago

I’ll never forgive Cairns for calling the entire Welsh Government ‘anti English’ for simply stewarding borders in the early part of the pandemic. He had nothing to say about county lockdowns but when the line was our National border, he piped up with that. He’s lost nothing with me though as i’ll never forgive him for being Tory anyway. Ha!

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
3 months ago

Nothing is for sure. There needs to be selective or tactical voting, and it should be organised now. People sick of this rubbish of a Party must join their local Plaid, Gwlad or Labour and leaflet in any spare time. Boring and tiring work, but it will pay off if we keep at it. Best of luck!

Jeff33
Jeff33
3 months ago

Considering the effort their acolytes have made to destroy Drakeford, Labour, Plaid and the Sennedd over the handling of cover and the economy through social media this is an incredible loss for the tories.

Phil
Phil
3 months ago

We live in hope…..

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