Conservatives to gain up to 10 seats as Wales loses eight in boundary changes
Conservatives are expected to gain up to 10 more seats across the UK at the next election due to boundary changes that will also see Wales lose 20% of its MPs, according to psephologists.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, a psephology website, said the changes would favour the ruling party.
“My own algorithm suggests the Conservatives will do a bit better than Labour by about 10 seats,” he told the Financial Times.
Another psephologist, Robert Hayward, said he thought the redrawn map would help the Conservatives by five to 10 seats.
He said that Wales would be the most affected part, losing about eight MPs, while the overwhelmingly Tory areas of south-east and south-west England are expected to gain seven and three MPs respectively.
Only Ynys Mon will survive the change in Wales, being one of three “protected constituencies” alongside Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan in Scotland which will retain an MP each.
The Parliamentary Constituencies Act has also raised the national campaign spending cap at the next election from £19.5m to about £33m.
“That change is expected to benefit the Tory party, which tends to attract financial backers with deeper pockets,” the Financial Times says.