Could next year’s council elections be fought using STV instead of first-past-the-post?
Martin Shipton
Discussions are taking place between Senedd Members about the possibility of changing the electoral system for next year’s council elections in Wales, we have been told.
In an essay written by former First Minister Mark Drakeford about the disastrous Senedd election results that saw Welsh Labour reduced to just nine out of 96 seats and how the party should respond to its defeat, he wrote: “The new, proportional voting system under which the Senedd election was fought saved the Labour Party in Wales. Under the new system, Labour received 11% of votes cast and has 11% of the seats in the Senedd.
“Every first past the post seat held under the previous system would have been lost. The nine seats won hold the balance between a minority Plaid Cymru administration and a reliable progressive majority. The new Labour group should use its continuing relevance to set a radical agenda. It should, for example, make the earliest possible call for next year’s local government elections to be held under a proportional system. Otherwise, the brutal cull of Labour councillors seen in England on 7 May will be at high risk of being repeated in Wales in May 2027.”
Political sources at the Senedd have told Nation.Cymru that conversations about whether to follow Mr Drakeford’s advice are under way, but neither Plaid Cymru nor Welsh Labour have provided us with an on-the-record statement.
In 2021 the Senedd passed the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act, which gave councils the option to switch their voting system from first past the post to the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation (PR).
Since then, none of the 22 unitary local authorities have voted to make such a change, preferring to stick with first-past-the-post.
Now, however, the arrival of Reform UK as a significant force in Welsh politics has prompted speculation about the feasibility of changing the 2027 council elections to STV.
STV is the system used to elect Members of the Dáil (the Irish Parliament), Members of the Northern Ireland Assembly and councillors in both Scotland and Northern Ireland. Voters list the candidates they choose in order of preference (1 to 4 etc), and if their first choice candidate gets eliminated at the count, their second choice candidate is counted etc.
STV gives more power to voters than the closed list system of PR used in the Senedd election, and guarantees a more proportional outcome than first-past-the-post.
Some Senedd politicians are worried that if next year’s council elections are fought under the current first-past-the-post system, Reform UK could win overall control of some councils on far less than 50% of the vote.
An MS told us: “There is already evidence that councils in England that have been won by Reform are in chaos. We don’t want that to happen in Wales.
“It may be possible to change the electoral system without having a whole new piece of legislation. That is certainly being spoken about.”
Smaller parties
Another political source said: “STV favours smaller parties, and Labour in Wales is certainly in that category now. In Scotland, Labour leads more councils than would be the case if the elections were fought on first-past-the-post. In some authorities there are unspoken agreements between Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to keep the SNP out of power.
“It would be technically possible to pass legislation to have next year’s council elections all fought using STV, but it would be fiddly. You’d have to have a big reorganisation of boundaries, particularly in rural areas where you tend to have a lot of single-member wards. There would be quite a bit of pushback and there would be pressure for meaningful public consultations, which would eat into the time available.
“Rhun ap Iorwerth would also have to consider whether he wants to spend a lot of political capital on an issue like this in Plaid’s first year in office.
“While a change to STV is desirable in many ways, it would be more sensible to have it as part of a package that also saw the number of councils halved. And that’s certainly not something that could be achieved before next May.”
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Labour truly is appalling! For years, and up until these comments from Drakeford, they dug their heals in on STV and flat rejected it, preferring the first-past-the-post when it suited their traditional monopoly. This just proves they’re in it for just the political power grabbing – and not much else. These London-first parties have long lost all sense of community – including the ‘new’ (recycled old Tories) kids on the block.
But if they are now finally on board then it’s time to get this moving. Even Reform should back a more proportional voting system after what Nigel said in 2024. Even the Cons would probably benefit from being the Reform voter’s second preference.
Yes. But let’s not let Labour get away with what they’ve done to this country for so long, because they suddenly jump on board with the longer standing voices of reason.
Leave that for the history books. If there’s now a cross-party consensus then get it done asap.
It’s all a disgrace. Just over 50% of people voted in the recent Senedd election; a sad indictment on devolution, the WG and all our politicians and parties. Next suggestion? Change the system to confuse people yet again. There is a massive disconnect between the electorate and the political class in the UK (and in Wales it is even worse) and this will not help one bit. If you want to do something then bring in mandatory voting (obviously with the option to abstain). That Mr Drakeford is involved says everything. You should have learnt something that was glaringly obvious… Read more »
Why do you think it’s confusing to ask for a preference? Surely if you’re sending someone to the shop for a can of pop, asking for a normal coke if the cherry coke you really want is unavailable is a very natural and normal thing.
Turnout here was broadly similar to the 2024 UK election and many elections across Europe. The issue is whether votes actually count. First‑past‑the‑post can get politicians elected with just 25–30% of the vote, leaving most voters unrepresented. That is not democratic and it is why most European countries have moved away from it.
Not true. Turnout was just under 60% in UK 2024. Lowest since 2001.
Correct. Which puts our paltry 50% in sharp perspective. And in an election which had the most public interest we have ever seen.
Maybe I am a bit dim, but I do not understand why there would have to be a redrawing of constituency boundaries, or why multi-member constituencies would pose a difficulty.
The turn out of 52% at the Senedd elections is 4% below the turn out in Wales at the 2024 UK general election. The 2024 Westminster election showed a very significant and disappointing fall in turn out in every country and region of the UK compared with the 2019 general election. The Senedd 2026 turn out shows a increase of about 5% on the previous election which is one of the few positive things that can be said about recent Senedd and Westminster elections and voter engagement.
The time table would be very tight but doable, but legislation would have to be passed in 3 months, and rural wards and some urban wards merged by a boundary commission in a six month period – a very short time. There are some good tools out there that amateur psephologists can use to do the work…
Call me naive or old-fashioned, but surely electoral systems should be evaluated not on whether they happen to favour one party or another under a certain set of circumstances (which, as Labour are now finding to their cost, can always change), but on their inherent governance or democratic merits? STV is the right system but not because it might stop Reform from winning. All parties have some responsibility to put their own interests aside and to do the right thing here; even and perhaps especially Plaid Cymru whose official position is pro-STV but whom – under their current levels of… Read more »
Absolutely no chance of it happening on that timeline. Between consultation, legislation, boundary reviews and administration changes required to implement (which would probably be opposed on that timeline by both councils and elections administrators). None of which would substantially start to happen until after the Senedd summer recess. Simply isn’t going to happen.