Council by-election results suggest Reform UK’s allure is waning

Martin Shipton

Plaid Cymru successfully defended two of the seats it was defending in council by-elections on July 9, but lost the third to a centre right Welsh nationalist standing as an Independent.

Meanwhile Labour held on to a seat it was defending in Cardiff, while Reform UK won a seat in Flintshire previously held by an Independent, but failed to take another in the same county that was retained by the Liberal Democrats.

Plaid Cymru’s Shirley Hodges won the Baruc ward in Barry to become a Vale of Glamorgan councillor with 856 votes (47.7%).

Reform’s Sarah Roderick was a distant second with 429 votes (23.9%), with Conservative candidate Chelsea Cottle on 219 votes (12.2%), Labour’s Trevor Durham on 179 (10.0%), the Green Party’s Lynden Mack on 90 (5.0%) and Liberal Democrat Gabriela Ferguson on 23 (1.3%).

The seat was vacated by Plaid’s Mark Hooper when he won a Senedd seat in May. He now represents Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg and is the Deputy Minister for Transport.

Former Welsh Conservative Senedd group leader Andrew RT Davies, together with his staff member George Carroll, who leads the Tory group on Vale of Glamorgan council, had targeted the ward with strident attacks on Plaid Cymru “separatists”. In the event, the Conservative vote was down by 8.2 percentage points since the last election in 2022, while the Plaid vote was up by 11.2 percentage points.

Plaid Cymru’s other success of the night was holding a seat in the Trebanos ward of Neath Port Talbot that was formerly held by Rebeca Phillips, who was elected to the Senedd in May 2026 to represent the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency.

Plaid’s Jamie Watkins won with 223 votes (51%), way ahead of the second placed Reform UK candidate Graeme Kerrison who got 88 votes (20%), Liberal Democrat Hayley Davies with 77 votes (18%), Stephanie Rhian Everitt with 37 (8%), Conservative Liz Hill O’Shea with 7 votes (2%) and Griff Miller of the Green Party with 4 votes (1%).

Plaid’s disappointing result came in the Llanrug ward of Gwynedd council, which has been described as the ward with the highest percentage of Welsh speakers in Wales.The seat was vacated by Plaid’s Beca Brown, who resigned when she was elected to the Senedd in May to represent Gwynedd Maldwyn.

The new councillor is Independent Rhys Parry, who won the seat with 394 votes (57.4%). Plaid’s Dewi Rhys Evans was runner-up with 262 votes (38.2%), followed by Reform UK’s Terry Temple with 17 (2.5%), the Conservatives’ Stacie Maries Ingram with 6 votes (0.9%), Sue Macfarlane of the Green Party with 4 (0.6% and Lib Dem Linda Park with 3 votes (0.4%).

Cllr Rhys Parry, who has been a member of Llanrug Community Council, has been described as a centre right Welsh nationalist.

Labour has been buoyed by winning the Splott by-election in Cardiff, caused by the election of former council leader Huw Thomas as an MS for Caerdydd Penarth.

Plaid Cymru did not field a candidate – a decision that could have helped Labour or the Green Party, which came a fairly close second. As a largely working class ward, this could have been seen as a ward where Reform would be in serious contention. But such a challenge did not emerge.

The new councillor is Labour’s James Caruana, who secured 765 votes (40%), followed by the Green Party’s Simran Patel on 678 (36%), Reform UK’s David Cook on 286 (15%), Liberal Democrat Rhys Husband on 114 (6%) and Charles Agbakahi on 54 (3%).

Ripe territory

Another seat in Flintshire that could also have been ripe territory for Reform stuck with the Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems’ Faron Hadfield-Jones won with 614 votes (39.8%), followed by Reform UK’s Angela Hughes with 490 (31.7%), Plaid Cymru’s Jack Morris with 191 (12.4%), Labour’s Peter Agnew with 113 (7.3%), the Conservatives’ Hazel Pamela Lynes also with 113 (7.3%) and the Green Party’s Meilir Roberts with 23 votes (1.5%).

The by-election was caused by the death of long-serving Lib Dem councillor Hilary McGuill.

Reform won a by-election in another Flintshire County Council ward – Connah’s Quay Central, with Dave Vernon elected as the new councillor.

The voting figures were not immediately available in what is the Welsh county with the highest proportion of Reform voters.