Council by-election results suggest Reform UK’s allure is waning
Martin Shipton
Plaid Cymru successfully defended two of the seats it was defending in council by-elections on July 9, but lost the third to a centre right Welsh nationalist standing as an Independent.
Meanwhile Labour held on to a seat it was defending in Cardiff, while Reform UK won a seat in Flintshire previously held by an Independent, but failed to take another in the same county that was retained by the Liberal Democrats.
Plaid Cymru’s Shirley Hodges won the Baruc ward in Barry to become a Vale of Glamorgan councillor with 856 votes (47.7%).
Reform’s Sarah Roderick was a distant second with 429 votes (23.9%), with Conservative candidate Chelsea Cottle on 219 votes (12.2%), Labour’s Trevor Durham on 179 (10.0%), the Green Party’s Lynden Mack on 90 (5.0%) and Liberal Democrat Gabriela Ferguson on 23 (1.3%).
The seat was vacated by Plaid’s Mark Hooper when he won a Senedd seat in May. He now represents Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg and is the Deputy Minister for Transport.
Former Welsh Conservative Senedd group leader Andrew RT Davies, together with his staff member George Carroll, who leads the Tory group on Vale of Glamorgan council, had targeted the ward with strident attacks on Plaid Cymru “separatists”. In the event, the Conservative vote was down by 8.2 percentage points since the last election in 2022, while the Plaid vote was up by 11.2 percentage points.
Plaid Cymru’s other success of the night was holding a seat in the Trebanos ward of Neath Port Talbot that was formerly held by Rebeca Phillips, who was elected to the Senedd in May 2026 to represent the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency.
Plaid’s Jamie Watkins won with 223 votes (51%), way ahead of the second placed Reform UK candidate Graeme Kerrison who got 88 votes (20%), Liberal Democrat Hayley Davies with 77 votes (18%), Stephanie Rhian Everitt with 37 (8%), Conservative Liz Hill O’Shea with 7 votes (2%) and Griff Miller of the Green Party with 4 votes (1%).
Plaid’s disappointing result came in the Llanrug ward of Gwynedd council, which has been described as the ward with the highest percentage of Welsh speakers in Wales.The seat was vacated by Plaid’s Beca Brown, who resigned when she was elected to the Senedd in May to represent Gwynedd Maldwyn.
The new councillor is Independent Rhys Parry, who won the seat with 394 votes (57.4%). Plaid’s Dewi Rhys Evans was runner-up with 262 votes (38.2%), followed by Reform UK’s Terry Temple with 17 (2.5%), the Conservatives’ Stacie Maries Ingram with 6 votes (0.9%), Sue Macfarlane of the Green Party with 4 (0.6% and Lib Dem Linda Park with 3 votes (0.4%).
Cllr Rhys Parry, who has been a member of Llanrug Community Council, has been described as a centre right Welsh nationalist.
Labour has been buoyed by winning the Splott by-election in Cardiff, caused by the election of former council leader Huw Thomas as an MS for Caerdydd Penarth.
Plaid Cymru did not field a candidate – a decision that could have helped Labour or the Green Party, which came a fairly close second. As a largely working class ward, this could have been seen as a ward where Reform would be in serious contention. But such a challenge did not emerge.
The new councillor is Labour’s James Caruana, who secured 765 votes (40%), followed by the Green Party’s Simran Patel on 678 (36%), Reform UK’s David Cook on 286 (15%), Liberal Democrat Rhys Husband on 114 (6%) and Charles Agbakahi on 54 (3%).
Ripe territory
Another seat in Flintshire that could also have been ripe territory for Reform stuck with the Liberal Democrats.
The Lib Dems’ Faron Hadfield-Jones won with 614 votes (39.8%), followed by Reform UK’s Angela Hughes with 490 (31.7%), Plaid Cymru’s Jack Morris with 191 (12.4%), Labour’s Peter Agnew with 113 (7.3%), the Conservatives’ Hazel Pamela Lynes also with 113 (7.3%) and the Green Party’s Meilir Roberts with 23 votes (1.5%).
The by-election was caused by the death of long-serving Lib Dem councillor Hilary McGuill.
Reform won a by-election in another Flintshire County Council ward – Connah’s Quay Central, with Dave Vernon elected as the new councillor with 256 votes (48.1%).
Welsh Labour’s Peter Davies came second with 101 votes (19.0%), followed by Plaid Cymru’s Richard Pooley with 71 votes (13.3%), Independent Edwin Duggan with 59 (11.1%), the Welsh Conservatives’ Dewi Parry with 21 (3.9%), Independent Andrew Williams with 13 (2.4%) and Lee Lavery of the Wales Green Party with 11 (2.1%).
The seat was previously held by Independent councillor Bernie Attridge, a former deputy leader of Flintshire County Council who was first elected as a Labour councillor.
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RT is right with his ‘separatists’ line. We so desperately want to separate off – FROM HIM.
Congratulations to Plaid Cymru. The bubble is slowly deflating for Reform UK. They are a party of frauds embroiled in corruption and soon will go the way of Ukip & Brexit party. Into the political dumpster.
Reform were always the loud obnoxious minority. And so are the people who vote for them.
In the Dec 2024 Splott by election Reform won 271 votes (13%)
Yesterday in the same ward Reform won 286 (15.1%).
I’ve never voted for them and will, but their vote is not retreating.
I think they hit a ceiling some time ago which makes them beatable in various ways. Although I think reports of decline should be treated with some caution. They are still probably the most consistent nationwide (perhaps because their share is less influenced by tactical voting), if they don’t win they usually come second, third in Splott but we’d have to note that’s probably amongst the worst wards for them. Still better % there than Labour did in Barry or Plaid did in Flintshire. Contrast that with Labour generally, one good hold but still mostly dismal. Two solid holds from… Read more »
Excellent news. Not much seems to have gone right in Wales for Reform since their disastrous defeat in the Caerphilly byelection last Autumn. Long may this continue.
I wish this were true, but it isn’t and we shouldn’t be complacent. We can’t ignore that Reform did very well in the Senedd election and although they thankfully didn’t win, they’re now the second largest party in Wales. That’s a huge leap from where they were before May.
A year ago polls indicated Reform would comfortably win the Senedd election – they finished well behind Plaid Cymru. A year ago Reform was also regularly winning council by-elections across Wales – they arent now. By any yardstick their fortunes in Wales have dipped. Incidentally ive been opposing the racist right for many years – trust me im never complacent about such people.
Seeing what’s happening to their supporters on the estates, I completely understand why.
Is “daddy” hiding again? He’s been uncharacteristically quiet these past 24 hours.