Energy UK chief says bill rise in July ‘inevitable’ amid warning of war’s impact

The head of Energy UK has said it is inevitable that the next price cap update will see bills rise, as a think tank warned the Iran war could make UK households hundreds of pounds worse off.

Dhara Vyas, chief executive of the industry body, voiced support for the Government to offer targeted help for those hit hardest by price hikes in the short term, and said the long-term solution was investment in clean power.

The Resolution Foundation said in its latest analysis of the impact of the conflict on the UK that the average household could be £480 worse off.

This is because rising energy prices are likely to mean that households will see income fall by 0.6% rather than the 0.9% growth they were previously on track for.

Speaking at a panel discussion hosted by the think tank, Ms Vyas said: “I think it’s inevitable that bills will go up on July 1, because we are more than halfway through the observation window, but I don’t know yet by how much.”

She said anyone working in the energy industry wakes up every morning and checks the gas price because there is no knowing what has happened overnight.

The Energy UK boss added: “So it is wildly unpredictable.

“The things we know for sure I think are our energy security is more at risk now than it has ever been.

“And I mean that not to kind of create a sense of fear about supply.

“That’s not what I mean.

“What I mean is our security in terms of having control over it.

“So investing in clean power is the way forward.”

Ms Vyas called on the Government to speed up efforts to identify who could get targeted support beyond those already accessing benefits, for example by using HMRC data.

“I do think Government needs to really accelerate that, because if this crisis has taught us anything, it’s that we continue to live in increasingly unpredictable times,” she said, pointing to swinging prices that dropped on the back of Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement last week and then shot up on Monday morning after his call for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US president threatened to stop tankers from entering or leaving the key oil and gas shipping lane in response to the failure of talks with Iran, a move which has again caused global prices to spike.

‘Frustrating’

Ms Vyas said it was “frustrating” that it is so difficult to determine which households to target with assistance, saying for example that the warm homes discount is thought to exclude some 2.5 million households who would benefit from it.

Amid calls for electricity prices to be decoupled from gas, she said that was something that would come gradually with the transition to clean power.

Ms Vyas pointed to the change that is thought to have seen the gas price go from setting the price for electricity 100% of the time to 84% in recent years.

“The point I’m trying to make is, over time, that will decrease as we get more renewables on to the system,” she said.

On whether there should be a market review of mechanisms and how pricing works, Ms Vyas said: “There’s a lot happening during a period of global competition for investing in electrification and clean power.

“So my view is, I don’t think we need to change it.

“It will change over time.”