Deaths stats back to normal in Wales last week – but spike continues in England

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The level of deaths in Wales are back to normal for this time of year, but continue at a higher level in England, according to provisional ONS figures.

No excess deaths were reported in Wales in the week of the 4 to 10th of May but those in England continued to be above the norm.

It is the first week that Wales has not seen higher than average deaths since the week of the 16th-26nd of March.

The Welsh Government continue to urge people to stay at home when possible to avoid another spike in the number of coronavirus cases.

However, England has relaxed the lockdown somewhat, urging people to return to work if they cannot work from home and allowing travel by car for exercise.

 

Regions

“In week 19 2020 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 10 z-score threshold was seen overall,” Public Health England said.

“In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 19.”

Figures for Scotland are only currently recorded up to week 17 and showed more deaths than normal.

The ONS figures showed that the significant excess mortality was seen in all regions of England. The North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humber, East & West Midlands, East of England, London and South East & West regions were all affected.

The data is provisional due to the time delay in registration, and numbers may vary from week to week.

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Ieuan Evans
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Ieuan Evans

Why didn’t Pau Davies mention this in his rant.

Erisian
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Erisian

… the upper 10 z-score threshold ? You didn’t think it might be a good idea to explain what the hell that means ?!?

Huw Davies
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Huw Davies

Nothing like a bit of specialist jargon to reinforce delusion of superiority among those with nothing much else to brag about .

max wallis
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max wallis

This is not true of Welsh care-homes. The death rates are running at about 41 per day in the first week in May, while number in the last two years were about 18 per day. The rate is has decreased after rising through April to a spike of 50 a day ~25 April, but is still very high on the Health Inspectorate for Wales figures. https://gov.wales/notifications-deaths-residents-related-covid-19-adult-care-homes-1-march-8-may-2020-html “Upper 10z score” may be relate to statistical deviations, but the care-homes deaths are far above any deviation due to non-Covid factors.

Leigh Richards
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Leigh Richards

With boris johnson easing lockdown rules in england an interesting statistic – suggests the more cautious approach being taken in Wales is the right one

Jim Morris
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Jim Morris

For a look at a real proper response to the threat of Covid-19, search for “Phantom Power – Vietnam”, where a nation of 93million+ people with a border shared with China manages to have only 300 cases of infection and no (that’s right: zero) deaths.

Jim Morris
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Jim Morris

With apologies, all I got at duckDuckGo were Phantom Jets. Try “Scotland Calling… Vietnam”

Steve Duggan
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Steve Duggan

It is to early to fully assess the different routes to ending the lockdown in Wales and England. However, I fear without testing and tracing along with holding employers to account in the workplace if social distancing isn’t adhered to – cases in England can only but rise. What the Welsh Government must do now is to put into place a policy of how we will prevent that rise moving into Wales.