Exit polls in Poland’s presidential run-off show race too close to call

Exit polls in Poland’s presidential run-off showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with the race still too close to call in the deeply divided nation.

The results could set the course for the nation’s political future and its relations with the European Union.

A first exit poll showed liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski with a slight lead over conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, but two hours later an updated “late poll” showed Mr Nawrocki winning on 50.7%, with Mr Trzaskowski on 49.3%.

Margin of error

The polls have a margin of error and it was still not clear who was the winner.

Though the final result was still unclear with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw.

“We won,” Mr Trzaskowski told supporters at his election night event.

“This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future. I will be your president.”

Mr Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win.

“We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.”

The final results are expected on Monday.

The decisive presidential run-off pitted Mr Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU figure, against Mr Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives, including President Donald Trump.

Social divisions

The fact that it was so close underlined how deep the social divisions have become in Poland.

The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively towards liberal democratic norms.

With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.

“We will not allow Donald Tusk’s grip on power to be completed,” Mr Nawrocki said.

The run-off follows a tightly contested first round of voting on May 18, in which Mr Trzaskowski won just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.