Expert points to ‘dilemma’ in curbing net migration through work and study visas

The Government faces a “dilemma” when wanting to reduce net migration as it is easier to restrict work and study visas which are the most positive for the UK economy, an independent adviser has said.

Professor Brian Bell, chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), said there is a “real trade-off” for ministers, as the body published a review on Wednesday recommending the general salary threshold for skilled workers remains at £41,700.

In its report commissioned by former home secretary Yvette Cooper, the MAC suggested for it to continue at its current level for migrants to make positive economic contributions to the UK and sustain lowered net migration.

Prof Bell said raising it higher would further reduce net migration but “not substantially”, and would come at a cost and harm the Government’s industrial strategy aiming to significantly boost business investment in certain sectors.

Ministers have been seeking to curb net migration – the difference between the number of people moving long-term to the country and the number leaving – through measures including ending the recruitment of overseas care workers.

The salary threshold for skilled workers was raised in July to £41,700, up from £38,700.

Prof Bell said: “What we’re not recommending is any additional rise, because we think… the rise that’s already happened, combined with the fact that it’s now only really a graduate level job route, has done enough probably to reduce net migration to levels that the Government should be more comfortable with on the work side.”

Latest net migration estimates have fallen to the lowest figure since 2021 – down to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.

Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.

The decrease is being driven by fewer people from outside the EU arriving in the UK for work or to study, along with an increase in people moving out of the country, the Office for National Statistics had said.

It also follows the introduction in early 2024 by the previous Conservative government of restrictions on people eligible to travel to the UK on work or study visas.

Prof Bell said the Government faces a “dilemma” when wanting to reduce net migration as being able to restrict migrants coming to the UK for work or study is easier than for family or asylum routes, even though they are more positive for the economy.

He said the Government is constrained over asylum cases because of the Refugee Convention, and family visas because of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights – the right to family life.

The Government can control work routes because there is no direct right for someone to work in the UK.

“That shows the dilemma that the Government faces when it wants to reduce net migration,” he said.

“It’s, as it were, easier to reduce net migration by controlling work and student numbers. They are unfortunately also the most productive and the most positive for the UK economy and for the fiscal balance.

“So that’s a real trade-off that the Government have to think about. It’s very easy saying let’s get that migration down, but disproportionately that’s going to be costly to the UK, rather than a positive benefit.”

He added the numbers for family visas and asylum seekers will make up a larger share of net migration going forward because of the fall in other groups so significantly.