Farage as PM could push independence support in Scotland close to 60%, poll suggests

Nigel Farage becoming prime minister could push support for Scottish independence to 58%, a new poll suggests.

The survey by Norstat for the Sunday Times, which spoke to 1,007 Scots between May 27 and May 30, showed support for independence currently sits at 54% in Scotland.

But if Reform UK were to win the next general election that figure could near the 60% level some believe should be the tipping point for another referendum.

The figure rose from 50% in the last Norstat poll in January.

The highest that support for independence has reached in recent years is 58%, in an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV News in the early months of the pandemic, as Nicola Sturgeon received plaudits for her handling of Covid-19.

SNP support

But the increase comes as support for the SNP continued to fall ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections, with the party dropping two percentage points in both the constituency and regional list votes to 33% and 28% respectively.

Labour’s support rose slightly to 19% in constituencies and 18% in Scotland’s regions.

But Reform UK would see a surge, if the poll was to reflect the returns seen next May, with Mr Farage’s party jumping to 18% in constituencies and 16% on the list – up two and three percentage points respectively.

Meanwhile the Scottish Tories dropped two points to 13% locally and remained at 15% in the regions.

The figures come ahead of a by-election in Lanarkshire this week, after the death of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.

Unprecedented

According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, in projections for the Sunday Times, John Swinney was on track to win an unprecedented fifth term in office for his party next year, securing 54 seats.

Labour would drop to 20 seats, while Reform would win 18 in their first full political test in Scotland.

Meanwhile, the Tories would drop from being the second biggest party to the fourth, with just 17 MSPs, followed by the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on nine.

The poll also looked at Westminster voting intentions, with the SNP recording 31% of the vote, followed by Reform surging into second on 21% and Labour dropping 15 points from last year’s election to 20%.

The Conservatives sit at 12%, while 8% said they would vote for the Lib Dems.

But despite leaping into second, Nigel Farage’s party would not return a single MP, the polling expert said, with the SNP rising to 30, Labour falling to 16 and the Lib Dems and Tories remaining on six and five respectively.

Momentum

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said his party has “momentum” and Labour has lost Thursday’s by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

“In government, Labour has taken away the winter fuel payment, cut £5 billion of support for disabled people and watched on as energy bills rose by £150,” he said.

“With an SNP Government, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse are getting action on what matters to them: bringing back the universal winter fuel payment, record funding for our NHS and key costs lower, with peak rail fares scrapped and lower income tax for the majority of taxpayers.

“The Labour Party has let you down and Farage is trying to stoke division, but the SNP is always on your side.”

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland has been let down for too long by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.

“After 18 years in charge, the SNP has left our NHS at breaking point, our economy flatlining and our schools tumbling down the international league tables.

“This week the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will get a chance to call time on SNP failure and choose a new direction with Scottish Labour.

“It’s clear the SNP does not deserve to win this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.”