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Farage as PM could push independence support in Scotland close to 60%, poll suggests

01 Jun 2025 4 minute read
Scottish independence supporters march through Glasgow. Photo Lesley Martin PA Images

Nigel Farage becoming prime minister could push support for Scottish independence to 58%, a new poll suggests.

The survey by Norstat for the Sunday Times, which spoke to 1,007 Scots between May 27 and May 30, showed support for independence currently sits at 54% in Scotland.

But if Reform UK were to win the next general election that figure could near the 60% level some believe should be the tipping point for another referendum.

The figure rose from 50% in the last Norstat poll in January.

The highest that support for independence has reached in recent years is 58%, in an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV News in the early months of the pandemic, as Nicola Sturgeon received plaudits for her handling of Covid-19.

SNP support

But the increase comes as support for the SNP continued to fall ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections, with the party dropping two percentage points in both the constituency and regional list votes to 33% and 28% respectively.

Labour’s support rose slightly to 19% in constituencies and 18% in Scotland’s regions.

But Reform UK would see a surge, if the poll was to reflect the returns seen next May, with Mr Farage’s party jumping to 18% in constituencies and 16% on the list – up two and three percentage points respectively.

Meanwhile the Scottish Tories dropped two points to 13% locally and remained at 15% in the regions.

The figures come ahead of a by-election in Lanarkshire this week, after the death of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.

Unprecedented

According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, in projections for the Sunday Times, John Swinney was on track to win an unprecedented fifth term in office for his party next year, securing 54 seats.

Labour would drop to 20 seats, while Reform would win 18 in their first full political test in Scotland.

Meanwhile, the Tories would drop from being the second biggest party to the fourth, with just 17 MSPs, followed by the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on nine.

The poll also looked at Westminster voting intentions, with the SNP recording 31% of the vote, followed by Reform surging into second on 21% and Labour dropping 15 points from last year’s election to 20%.

The Conservatives sit at 12%, while 8% said they would vote for the Lib Dems.

But despite leaping into second, Nigel Farage’s party would not return a single MP, the polling expert said, with the SNP rising to 30, Labour falling to 16 and the Lib Dems and Tories remaining on six and five respectively.

Momentum

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said his party has “momentum” and Labour has lost Thursday’s by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

“In government, Labour has taken away the winter fuel payment, cut £5 billion of support for disabled people and watched on as energy bills rose by £150,” he said.

“With an SNP Government, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse are getting action on what matters to them: bringing back the universal winter fuel payment, record funding for our NHS and key costs lower, with peak rail fares scrapped and lower income tax for the majority of taxpayers.

“The Labour Party has let you down and Farage is trying to stoke division, but the SNP is always on your side.”

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland has been let down for too long by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.

“After 18 years in charge, the SNP has left our NHS at breaking point, our economy flatlining and our schools tumbling down the international league tables.

“This week the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will get a chance to call time on SNP failure and choose a new direction with Scottish Labour.

“It’s clear the SNP does not deserve to win this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.”


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Hal
Hal
6 days ago

Mussolini wanted to Make Rome Great Again.

Just saying, that’s all.

Nigel Burford's alter ego
Nigel Burford's alter ego
6 days ago
Reply to  Hal

And he didn’t.

Just saying, that’s all.

Hal
Hal
6 days ago

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/fb-7053317/Benito-Mussolini-dictator-wanted-revive-Roman-empire.html

“Benito Mussolini, the dictator who wanted to revive the Roman empire”

theoriginalmark
theoriginalmark
5 days ago
Reply to  Hal

That went well for him.

Geraint
Geraint
6 days ago

The ‘Farage-effect’, much like the ‘Trump-effect’, seems to have that unusual ability of bringing closer the precise thing they’re campaigning against.

Farage said a few months ago he wished to “make Britain great again”. Keep going like this and there won’t be a unified Britain.

Llyn
Llyn
6 days ago

A UK Reform Government would mean the UK leaving the ECHR, breaking the Good Friday Agreement with a huge push for a NI border poll; a sharp rise in support for Scottish independence; a foreign policy of simply following what Donald J Trump says, and constant hostility with our fellow Europeans. Not amount of British exceptionalism will be able to prevent us from the chaos that would follow.

Rob
Rob
6 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

Totally agree. People forget that the ECHR was Churchill’s creation. It protects ALL of our rights from authoritarianism. The only European countries that are not members are Russia and Belarus. I do not want to be like them.

theoriginalmark
theoriginalmark
5 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

Rather worryingly you mention Scottish independence but not Welsh?

Rob
Rob
4 days ago

Wales will follow suit after Scotland.

Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
6 days ago

If he does get into government into London he and his party will speed up the break up of this god foresaken country called the U K perhaps the people of Wales that Farage the smiling viper is a far right fascist English nationalist and he would be far worse than Labour or Tory for Wales

John Young
John Young
6 days ago
Reply to  Dai Ponty

Correct. And it would give Welsh indy a huge boost as well as indy in Scotland.

Geraint
Geraint
6 days ago
Reply to  John Young

If we look at political reaction in Wales, the rise of Reform UK could be behind the growing support for Plaid Cymru, now leading in some polls.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
6 days ago

SIXTY PERCENT? There seems to be an attempt to ‘narrative’ in a Trump loyalist to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and there will be elections held, as there were in the U.S. in 2020 and the LOOOOOZER was not having any of it. The following insurrection resulted in deaths. We appear to be on a replication path. Democracy has the boot on its’ throat. If Farage becomes PM, or doesn’t and riots ensue, it’s EVERYBODY OUT! Do it immediately not after five years of seeing what it’s like. We’ve seen all we need to see.

Rob
Rob
6 days ago

Do we want to be part of a European Alliance or do we want to be part of a Trump/Putin Axis?

We should also remember that Reform is currently around 30% which means 70% do not want Reform, which goes to show how undemocratic first past the post really is. I hope next time around people will vote tactically.

Rob
Rob
6 days ago

Welsh constitutional attitudes are normally 15-20 years Scotland. 1979: Wales overwhelmingly rejected devolution. Scotland narrowly voted in favour but failed to reach the threshold 1997: Scotland voted in favour of devolution, Wales narrowly voted in favour like Scotland in ’79 2000s: Around a third of Scots back independence. Welsh voters come around to accept devolution 2011: Wales votes for legislative powers 2014: Scotland narrowly rejects independence 2020s: Support for Scottish independence is evenly 50/50 split and rising. Support for Welsh independence is around a third (like Scotland in 2000s) Scottish independence will therefore make Welsh independence inevitable. The more the… Read more »

Fanny Hill
Fanny Hill
6 days ago

Let’s be brutally honest, does anyone think a Farage government would ever allow a referendum on independence in either Wales or Scotland?
As an aside, I saw a Reform poster today overlaid on a faint Welsh flag backdrop claiming to represent Reform Wales. Where is their Welsh HQ? Who’s their Leader?

Nobby Tart
Nobby Tart
6 days ago
Reply to  Fanny Hill

Their leader next year will be RT Davies. It’s inevitable.

theoriginalmark
theoriginalmark
5 days ago
Reply to  Nobby Tart

He can’t take the pressure anymore, he proved that over covid, he turned into a bigger clown than normal, the only reason he’s a politician is because he’s too useless to work on the family farm.

Garycymru
Garycymru
4 days ago

If the halfwits of the UK are gullible enough to vote for the useless criminal, I say its definitely time to leave.
Funnily enough, when he conned the hard of thinking for Brexit, it increased immigration by 5 times, so as someone who would really like the UK not to be a thing anymore I think it’s a brilliant idea.
The Irony of Wales and Scotland getting independence due to an incredibly stupid unionist is going to look brilliant in ghe history books.

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