Farage on course to be PM with Wales one of Reform UK’s strongest areas, says poll
Martin Shipton
A new YouGov poll shows Nigel Farage on course to be Prime Minister, with Reform UK performing better in Wales than in most English regions.
The party would win 23 of the 32 seats in Wales at a general election, with six going to Plaid Cymru and just three for Labour.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would win no seats.
Plaid would win its existing four – Caerfyrddin, Ceredigion, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ynys Mon – plus Bangor Aberconwy and Cardiff West.
Labour would win the other three seats in the capital: Cardiff East, Cardiff North and Cardiff South and Penarth.
Projection
The YouGov MRP polling projection, based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks, suggests an election held tomorrow would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 seats short of the formal winning line of 326.
In practice, once the Speaker and absent Sinn Fein MPs are accounted for, it would be all but impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to secure the largest number of MP backers and thus become prime minister.
Reform UK has improved its position since the last YouGov MRP in June, when it was 55 seats short of a majority. The projection suggests 306 Reform gains, up from their current seat tally of five, which would be the biggest increase in any election in British history.
The projection of Commons seats in Great Britain puts Reform UK on 311 seats, Labour on 144 seats, Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, Conservatives on 45 seats, SNP on 37 seats and Greens on seven seats, with Plaid on six seats and three seats won by left-wing challengers.
Barely a year after Keir Starmer won a landslide, this result would see Labour lose around two-thirds of their existing seats, down from the 411 they won in last year’s general election.
This is significantly worse than the party’s 2019 result under Jeremy Corbyn when the party won 202 seats and is their lowest tally since 1931.
London
More than a third of Labour’s remaining seats would be in London, making them more reliant on London than any other British party is on any other nation or region.
Among the big-name casualties would be Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.
The Conservatives would fare even worse, pushed potentially to the brink of extinction. They would lose two-thirds of their 121 seats won last year – which was already their worst result in their 190-year modern history – reducing their tally to 45 seats.
And even further back, it would be worse than any result they’ve ever suffered, all the way back to the formation of their predecessor party, the Tory Party in the 1670s.
This would put the Tories in fourth place behind the Lib Dems, and the first time they have not been one of the two biggest parties.
The Conservatives would be wiped out in both Wales and the South West, a heartland as recently as 2015, and left with just six seats in the north and one in Scotland.
Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride could be among the casualties. Almost 60% of their current front bench would lose their seats.
Abstain
In theory, the Conservatives could line up with Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, progressive left and Northern Ireland MPs to vote down a Farage premiership, but this is highly unlikely in practice. If they abstain, Mr Farage would still have enough MPs to become PM.
The projections suggest national vote shares of 27% for Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 17% for Conservative, 15% for Lib Dems, 11% for Greens, 3% for SNP and 1% for Plaid.
Some smaller, more recent YouGov polls have put the Reform UK total even higher.
The scale of the threat to Labour from Reform UK is laid bare in this MRP projection.
Three-quarters of Reform UK’s seats would come directly from Labour, while more than half of Labour seats would go directly to Reform UK.
The North East of England would be Reform’s strongest area with 21 of the 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales.
Reform’s weakest areas are London, where they would have six out of 75 and Scotland where they would win five out of 57.
Scotland would see a resurgence of the SNP, an increase of 28 seats to 37 seats, with Labour left with nine seats.
This does not suggest Scottish Labour will be able to win control of the Scottish Parliament at next year’s elections.
Voters in Great Britain were asked by YouGov how they would vote in the event of an election tomorrow, even though one is not anticipated for three or four years. MRP projections come with a significant margin of error.
The central projection is that Reform UK gets 311 seats, but this could be as high as 342, which would deliver an overall majority, or as low as 271. The Tories could have as few as 28 seats and as high as 68 seats. Labour’s range could be from 118 to 185.
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Richard Tice was gloating on question time last night that Reform was ahead in the all the polls . Billy Bragg said “good the more the chance to scrutinise you ” . The only way to beat these charlatans is to scrutinise, scrutinise, scrutinise and call them out for what they are . The more their so called policies ( Farage calls them ” ambitions ” so they don’t have to commit) are dissected and exposed the more any right thinking person will see how dangerous they are. Unless your rich be prepared to have more and more of your… Read more »
Very true. But it still gives these clowns too much airtime. We need a compromise where other politicians can shine
Thank you for this appraisal of truth. I have not heard a single individual let alone journalist make these robbers explain what is behind their ‘policy’ of raising our tax free earnings threshold to £20k a year, an apparent free gift of £7.5k a year straight into each pocket that nobody would see a single penny of and then some, when EVERYTHING is FULLY privatised for the benefit of the shareholder tyranny only.
Although it somewhat sticks in my throat to say it, Farage is quite right to call the party’s policies “ambitions” because we need to remember that parliament, rather than the government, is sovereign in this country.
Perhaps then people will understand the difficulties that governments face when they come to implement their election promises.
The big question at the moment is what “ambitions” do Reform UK actually have, and more importantly, what are they going to cut to pay for them?
I agree with your points; but scrutiny alone is not enough. This does not resonate with enough actual or potential Reform voters. What is desperately needed is an alternative narrative that people can buy into. Starmer is the best/worst example of this failure; but the other mainstream parties are little better. It has created a void which Farage is now occupying.
Billy Bragg nailed it: Reform UK is the BNP in blazers. Wales deserves better than imported bile dressed up as bravado. Caerphilly be careful what you’re voting for.
There is unlikely to be a Westminster election for at least 3 years and a lot can and no doubt will in that time. As for the Senedd election next year there was a poll only a few days ago that had Plaid in the lead
You could argue FPTP doesn’t really work with such fragmentation of politics. In my view, some adjustment of this is needed urgently, otherwise we will end up with odd governments for the next 20 years.
That said, if all the parties are polling 20-30%, and none of them get on, FPTP does allow for at least allow one party to have an overall majority!
….. AND BECOME AN AUTHORITIAN DICTATORSHIP.
NO,
We need the system of proportional Representation: Single Transferable Vote right NOW !
Why does Starmer not realise this with some urgency ?
FASCISM IS AT OUR GATES.
DON’T LET THEM IN.
It’s not a majority of voters though. What kind of democracy elects governments the majority don’t want. Why is it so hard to ask people to say who they’d prefer if their first choice is unavailable. Everyone copes with this when sending someone to the shop to buy a can of pop.
Yet more polling junk or junk polling. However, it is time for the boys and girls who are involved with being self-appointed guardians of our freedoms – Labour, Plaid et al – to start on the real work of competing for the electorate’s support and ditch the overdose of rhetoric and waffle.
Westminster should bring in voting with STV for the next general election.
Reform will likely secure a disproportionately high number of seats at a Westminster election because of FPTP. Labour refused to address this democratic dysfunction and will reap the benefits!….but to be clear if Reform do get 30% or so if votes ….well done, but that is still a minority!!!
Why do the Cymry always perform political suicide? The popular Labour vote has done nothing to improve anything. Reform has no positive action for Cymru. In fact, if Farage had his way he would wipe us off the map.
But think how thrilled Trump and Putin will be.
In the 2021 census, 55% of respondents in our country described themselves as ‘Welsh’. This poll seems to suggest that a significant number in that 55% simultaneously want to throw away the right to describe themselves as such and if they do, they were never Welsh to begin with. Only a bradwr would vote their country into extinction.
Farage’s ‘migrants’ poster sent a message…
RIP Jo Cox
Nathan Gill has reportedly just pleaded guilty to bribery.
Voters of Wales: you have been warned about the kind of man NF is. There will be no time for regrets after he takes power.
Exactly, and NF is just a mini-me of Stinky Don the Diapered Con. Agent Orange fills his diaper, NF slurps it down and regurgitates it to his well hard (of thinking) True Believers.
Like MAGA, RefUKKK is a Cult.
What a shameful indictment of Labour ,
It’s an indictment of all the mainstream parties – their complacency and mendacity. Not least here in Wales.
If Farage becomes Prime Minister but falls short of a majority, as this poll suggests, he’ll turn that weakness into a weapon. Every failure will be blamed on the “London establishment” or the “deep state” holding him back, and he’ll ride that grievance straight into the next election with a real chance of winning an outright majority. The only way to break this cycle is to scrap first-past-the-post; yet Labour still refuse to listen.
For decades the unionist loving Labour party in local council smoke filled meeting rooms have made decisions which have systematically denied Welsh children access to Welsh history and the Welsh language. This has contributed to the Welsh population looking to our masters in Westminster for support. In other words the Labour party in Wales have contributed to an epidemic of learned helplessness and reliance on the British state for support. Then along comes Farage the very epitome of Britishness as a ordinary pub going saviour. Lost our ability to think critically and can no longer tell the difference between S**t… Read more »
Read the last paragraph.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certainty-if-an-election-were-held-tomorrow
Popularity isn’t a moral compass—it’s just volume turned up. Anderson’s applause in Caerphilly doesn’t make his bile right. Wales isn’t a backdrop for millionaire grievance theatre. We know the difference between real solutions and slogans dressed for TV. Harmony isn’t weakness—it’s strength. The risk in trading it for cheap applause for Wales will be the damaging aftermath consequences
Have seen the marches waving their flags union jacks but there are far more English flags and look closely and you will see people wearing hats with MEGA on them meaning MAKE ENGLAND GREAT AGAIN do you need any more proof they are an English nationalist party that will not end well for the 3 Celtic nations we ill end up being no more than an English county
I’d be interested to hear how a party whose ex-leader in Wales has just admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia while being a Member of the European Parliament squares with its desire to make one of the UK nations great again.
Answer is simple.
Introduce Single Transferable Vote (STV) proportional representation.
Introduce a written constitution and ensure governments are formed of coalitions which have over 50% of the popular vote.
It is last century thinking but better Westminster arrives there now than Reform UK are given the ability to enshire further hate and division into our society.