Farmers face nearly £5bn hit after three years of poor harvests

Nation.Cymru staff

Arable farmers are facing losses of almost £5 billion after three consecutive years of poor harvests blamed on extreme weather, according to new analysis.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape will have fallen 14.4 million tonnes short of the 2014-2023 average across 2024, 2025 and 2026.

When adjusted for inflation, the organisation puts the resulting loss of farm income at almost £4.8 billion in 2026 prices.

Separate Welsh Government figures show the value of cereal production in Wales fell by 29% in 2024, from £57 million to around £41 million.

Around 58,000 hectares of cereals were grown in Wales in 2025, although arable farming represents a relatively small part of Welsh agriculture compared with livestock farming.

The ECIU analysis comes as this year’s prolonged heat and drought are expected to result in the UK’s worst arable harvest since detailed records began in 1984.

ECIU said 2026 had initially looked likely to deliver normal or above-average yields before a very dry April, heatwaves in May and June and drought in July hit cereal crops.

It follows another poor harvest in 2025, when a dry spring and hot summer affected cereal yields, while the 2024 harvest was badly hit by exceptionally wet weather.

The six months from October 2023 to March 2024 were the wettest on record for England and Wales, affecting both the area planted and crop yields.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said: “Just as Britain’s arable farmers thought 2026 might bring a better harvest, this summer’s extreme heat and relentless drought has been a terrible blow that has left farmers facing the third poor harvest in a row.

“Our farmers are now on the front line of climate change, which is taking a relentless toll on their ability to grow and harvest the crops we all depend upon.

“The lost revenue this summer is just a snapshot of the total cost for UK farming, with vegetable growers, livestock farmers and many in the wider food supply chain also being hit by these climate costs.

“Better soil health and trees to shade livestock help cut emissions, and also make farming more resilient. But there are also limits to what can be done, for example irrigating many crops just doesn’t stack up financially, so reaching net zero emissions is also imperative otherwise temperatures will simply continue to spiral upwards while our food security falls.”

The ECIU analysis estimates the production deficit compared with the previous 10-year average at 4.34 million tonnes in 2024 and 4.20 million tonnes in 2025.

For 2026, the shortfall is projected to rise to 5.89 million tonnes, taking the cumulative deficit to 14.43 million tonnes. Wheat alone accounts for almost nine million tonnes of the three-year shortfall.

The financial impact varies according to how the losses are calculated.

Using prices farmers received at the time, the three-year revenue shortfall is around £1.5 billion. When historical revenues are adjusted into 2026 prices, ECIU calculates the deficit at £4.76 billion.

At current commodity prices, meanwhile, the 14.4 million tonnes of lost production would be worth approximately £3.1 billion. ECIU stresses that this figure should not be confused with its estimate of the impact on farm incomes.

‘Devastating’

Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, said: “As a farmer, I’m used to ironing out the bad years with the good, but three terrible harvests in a row is just devastating for my business and the farming sector as a whole.

“Anyone who thinks that climate change isn’t something to worry about needs to spend a day in a farmer’s boots, struggling to grow crops, feed livestock with no grass or keep animals cool in a heatwave.

“With El Niño loaded on top of climate change threatening to bring a wet and stormy autumn and even hotter summer next year, our industry desperately needs politicians and the supply chain to take the threat of climate change to our food security much more seriously.

“We need support to reduce emissions and boost the resilience of UK food production and can’t afford that alone while climate change is hitting our bottom line so relentlessly.”

The National Farmers’ Union has also warned that the impact of extreme weather on farmers’ cashflow could jeopardise next year’s harvest.

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