Former MP will not stand for Labour in crunch Caerphilly by-election

Martin Shipton

Former Caerphilly MP Sir Wayne David has said he will not be standing in the Senedd by-election caused by the tragic death of the seat’s MS Hefin David.

Nation.Cymru was told that some senior Labour figures had tried to persuade Sir Wayne to be the candidate in the election, which Presiding Officer Elin Jones has confirmed will take place on October 23.

A Labour source told us: “It’s going to be a challenging by-election and Wayne would obviously be a very strong candidate to put up against Reform.

“He was the MP for the seat for 23 years until retiring at the general election last year and represented the constituency well, helping many local residents. He’s obviously very well known throughout the constituency, and that would obviously be an advantage when the Reform candidate won’t have anywhere near the same recognition.”

‘Helping’

But when we contacted Sir Wayne, he made it clear that he would not be the candidate. He said: “I would like to say that I am not considering standing in the by-election. I have committed myself to helping, as much as possible, the candidate whoever she or he may be. It is so important to have a Welsh Labour MS for Caerphilly to continue the excellent work of Hefin David.”

The only party to select a candidate so far is Plaid Cymru. Veteran councillor Lindsay Whittle, a former leader of Caerphilly council who also served one term as a regional Assembly Member for South Wales East, will stand for Plaid again. At last year’s general election he was the runner-up to Labour’s Chris Evans, who won with a majority of 6,419. The third-placed Reform UK candidate was a further 365 votes behind.

But the political dynamic has changed considerably in the 14 months since the general election and a number of polls have suggested that Reform is likely to win the seat.

Campaign headquarters

The right-wing party is certainly taking the election seriously, and has already rented a shop in Caerphilly town centre as its campaign headquarters.

There have been rumours that Reform will announce its Caerphilly candidate at its party conference in Birmingham this weekend. It has also been suggested that former Conservative and Ukip MP Mark Reckless, who has also represented Ukip, the Brexit Party and Abolish the Welsh Assembly :Party at the Senedd, as well as spending a period attached to the Senedd Tory group, is not on Reform’s list of shortlisted candidates for the Caerphilly by-election.

However, a spokesperson for Reform UK told us: “We haven’t decided on when we will announce, nor the candidate.”

‘Pompous’

A Reform source told us: “Mark Reckless is a very bright man, but he can come across as quite pompous. His baggage with other parties could also be a distraction in a by-election where the candidate would obviously have a high profile.

“Mark would be far better as a closed list candidate where people are voting just for the party.”

Whoever wins the by-election will only serve as an MS for six months, until the Senedd is dissolved in advance of the next Wales-wide Senedd election next May.

There will be no more first-past-the-post contests, Caerphilly will no longer exist as a constituency in its own right and instead will be part of the new Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni super-constituency, which will elect six MSs under the closed list system of proportional representation.

The outcome of the by-election will be significant for all three major contenders. Labour would receive a major boost if it were able to retain the seat, while there could be a sense that Reform’s momentum was running out of steam if it failed to win. Likewise, Plaid Cymru should be able to win a seat where it has previously led the council on two occasions in recent decades and in circumstances where some Wales-wide polls have shown the party to be in the lead.