GCSE attainment gap widens for pupils from low-income families in Wales

Mark Mansfield

The GCSE attainment gap between pupils from low-income families and their classmates has widened in Wales, with results falling more sharply among those eligible for free school meals.

Provisional examination figures for 2025–26 show the gap on the Welsh Government’s main measure of achievement grew from 78.6 to 82 points in a year.

Pupils eligible for means-tested free school meals recorded an average Capped 9 score of 295.3, down from 300.8 the previous year. Among pupils not eligible, the average fell from 379.4 to 377.3.

Capped 9 combines a pupil’s nine best qualification results, which must include literacy, numeracy and science. Grades are converted into points: an A* at GCSE is worth 58 points, an A is worth 52 and a C is worth 40.

The resulting averages allow comparisons between groups of pupils. They do not mean that every pupil in a group achieved similar results, and the measure is not intended to assess individual performance.

The latest figures represent a decline of 5.5 points for pupils eligible for free school meals, compared with 2.1 points for their classmates.

The gap is wider than before the pandemic, when it stood at 77.3 points in 2019, although it remains below the 87.1-point gap recorded in 2023.

Free school meal eligibility is used here as an indicator of low household income. It does not capture every pupil whose family faces financial hardship.

Top grades

The differences are also evident in the proportion of top GCSE grades awarded.

Among entries from pupils eligible for free school meals, 6.9% received an A* or A, compared with 22.5% among other pupils. The previous year’s figures were 7% and 22.3% respectively.

Top grades were therefore more than three times as common among entries from pupils not eligible for free school meals.

However, the gap did not widen on every measure.

The proportion of GCSE entries awarded A*–C among eligible pupils increased from 39% to 39.4%. Among other pupils, it rose from 68.3% to 68.4%, narrowing the gap slightly from 29.3 to 29 percentage points.

These percentages refer to examination entries rather than individual pupils, who may take several qualifications.

In the subject indicators, the literacy gap widened from 9.7 to 9.8 points and the numeracy gap from 11.1 to 11.4 points. The science gap narrowed slightly but remained the largest of the three.

National average

Across Wales, the average Capped 9 score fell from 354.3 to 350.3, putting it 4.1 points below its 2019 level.

Literacy, numeracy and science scores all declined, as did the Skills Challenge Certificate indicator.

The tables also show a strong association between attendance and achievement. Pupils absent for no more than 10% of school sessions had an average Capped 9 score of 396.1, compared with 318.1 among those absent for more than 20% and up to 30%.

The figures do not establish that absence alone caused the differences in results.

Responding to the findings, the Welsh Government said: “We are taking action to close attainment gaps and deliver measurable improvements in learner outcomes, particularly for those impacted by poverty.”

It pointed to a new child poverty strategy and £128 million allocated to the Pupil Development Grant in 2026–27 to help schools and local authorities address barriers and raise attainment.

The government said it was also beginning to extend free school meals to all secondary pupils in households claiming Universal Credit, without an income limit. Further support is available through the School Essentials Grant.

“We have also recently launched our new Foundational Literacy and Numeracy plan to support sustained improvement in outcomes for all learners, while ensuring additional support is available for those who need it most,” a spokesperson added.

The provisional results cover Year 11 pupils in maintained schools, pupil referral units and other specified education settings, excluding independent schools and further education colleges. Free school meal status is based on means-tested eligibility, excluding pupils covered only by universal provision or transitional protection.

Comparisons across the pandemic years require caution because assessment arrangements changed. Teacher-assessed grades replaced exams, followed by transitional arrangements before grading returned to pre-pandemic standards in 2024.

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