Greens defeat Labour in Cardiff council by-election
Martin Shipton
The Green Party has won its first council seat in Cardiff – as well as its first ever by-election in Wales – taking a seat from Labour in the ethnically diverse Grangetown ward.
Green candidate and new councillor Matt Youde topped the poll with 818 votes (24.4%); 44 votes ahead of Labour’s Khuram Chowdhry with 774 votes (23.1%).
Plaid Cymru’s Neil Roberts came third with 639 votes (19.1%); followed by Joseph Martin of Reform UK with 495 votes (13.0%), Vincent Yewlett of Propel with 327 votes (9.8%), Independent candidate Ahmed Samater with 158 votes (4.7%); the Conservatives’ James Hamblin with 139 votes (4.1%) and the Liberal Democrats’ Irfan Latif with 63 votes (1.8%).
Underwhelming turnout
The by-election, which was caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Sara Robinson, had an underwhelming turnout of 26.7%.
The result represented a big turnaround from the last Wales-wide set of council elections in 2022, when the leading Labour candidate in the four-seat ward topped the poll with 2885 votes. Between them the Labour candidates in Grangetown secured 56% of the votes.
In April 2024 there was an earlier by-election in the ward following the death of Labour councillor Abdul Sattar. His widow Waheeda Sattar got 1470 votes – 48% of the total cast – even though her participation in the campaign was restricted because she complied with a Muslim mourning code.
In 2022 and in the 2024 by-election, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru fielded joint candidates in Grangetown on a ticket called Common Ground.
During the campaign, Grangetown was visited by prominent Green Party politicians, including Adrian Ramsay MP, co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales and Ellie Chowns, the Green Party MP for North Herefordshire.
‘Positive change’
After the result was declared, Philip Davies, the Wales Green Party’s deputy leader posted a message to social media that said: “A huge congratulations to Matt Youde who will make a fantastic councillor. A huge thank you to everyone who came to help in the campaign. @WalesGreenParty beating Labour shows people want positive change not more of the same; roll on the Senedd election next year.”
Cardiff council Labour leader posted a message to X that said: “Not our day in Grangetown today. My congratulations to Matt Youde and the Greens for their win, and my thanks to our brilliant candidate Khurram Chowdhry, and all who supported us. We’ve lost by-elections before and have bounced back. We’ll reflect, learn, and come back stronger.”
Vale of Glamorgan Labour MP Kanishka Narayan appeared to have misread the electoral runes, posting a message to social media on the evening of polling day after canvassing in the ward that said: “Polls still open, doors still being knocked, Labour support still strong as ever. Don’t forget to vote Labour in Grangetown tonight!”
Third placed Plaid candidate Neil Roberts wrote: “Diolch Grangetown, We ran a positive, community-focused campaign that I’m immensely proud of. We increased our voterbase in Grangetown and have built a strong Plaid Cymru presence in the south of our capital city. Congratulations to Matt Youde from the Greens on his election. I still believe Plaid Cymru are the best party to put Wales first, but for now thank you Grangetown for your support.”
Welsh election analyst Lloyd Warburton wrote: “The Greens have pulled off a shock result, as Matt Youde is elected as their first councillor in Cardiff. He is their ninth current councillor in Wales. This is (as far as I can tell) their first ever by-election win in Wales.”
‘Serious blow’
Despite Cllr Thomas’ brave words, the result is a serious blow to Labour nine months before a Senedd election that will be challenging for the party, whose popularity has decreased significantly since last year’s general election.
Labour will, however, take some comfort from the unimpressive performance of Reform UK, which could only achieve fourth position and 13% of the vote.
The 2021 Census confirmed that Grangetown is a highly diverse area with a significant representation of various ethnic groups. The breakdown of the ward’s ethnic makeup is White: 54.16%; Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: 23.63%; Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: 10.83%. Other ethnic groups make up the remaining 11.38%.
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This is also a serious blow for Plaid. A seat with a sizeable Welsh speaking middle class base and a large Muslim vote they’ve been chasing since the Iraq war. They who won the seat in a by-election in 2016 and it has been a target seat for them over the years. Another by-election where this oft talked about Plaid surge has not materialised at all and that in a ward where both of the Plaid lead senedd candidates live. The article mentioned senior Green politicians being present, I don’t think a single senior Plaid politician attended. To me that… Read more »
Maybe also because Propel stood, who, in my experience, tend to attract disgruntled Plaid voters? They got 327 votes
I’m not aware of Grangetown having a particularly large proportion of Welsh speakers (perhaps you could point me to the source from which you got these statistics?). Grangetown is part of the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency where Plaid got 8.2% of the vote, compared to 19% at this by-election. Meanwhile, the Labour vote has almost halved from 44.5% to 23.1%, and will be further eroded by Corbyn’s new party when they start to stand candidates in elections.
You obviously don’t know Grangetown
I don’t think you do either.
This is more down to the fact of another Nationalist Party Propel splitting the Nationalist vote.
However I get where you are coming from it’s ironic that Plaid having shot themselves in the foot over internal infighting in both Llanelli and Cardiff West still haven’t recovered from the fallout.
I mention Llanelli as last week they handed a stronghold seat in Llanelli to Reform.
I don’t think Cardiff West is a problem. Keira Marshall came a strong second to Labour there at the general election, well ahead of the Tories in third place. Grangetown is in the constituency of Cardiff South and Penarth, which was their weakest performing constituency in Cardiff at the general election.
Yet by ostracizing Neil McEvoy Plaid Cymru blew a ounce in a lifetime chance of Turning Cardiff West into a Plaid Stronghold outside the Welsh Speaking Heartland.
I believe that McEvoy would have beaten Drakeford in the Senedd Elections had he still been a Plaid member.
Plaid Cymru at one time controlled Cardiff City Council together with the Liberal Democrats.
Today in Cardiff Plaid Cymru are just as relevant in politics as The Monster Ravin Looney Party.
McEvoy was a thorn in the side of Labour, a threat to the Plaid/Labour Senedd ‘love in’ – that’s why he had to go.
A party seen as a junior in a coalition government would nearly always follow the same destiny as the leading party. Both the Labour and Conservative parties are toxic. In 2015 the Liberal Democrats suffered lose of support from their coalition with David Cameron’s Tories. Plaid Cymru was in a better position because at least Rhun pulled the party out of the pact because of Labour’s shenanigans including that accepting cash with a convicted polluter. However, The English Lib Dems have since recovered to increase their numbers to 72 HoC MPs. Plaid Cymru increased its vote recently in Llanelli and… Read more »
A Labour/Plaid marginal you mean? And we didn’t hand it over. We fought blydi hard for it thank you very much. I was there. Moreover, I can assure you that Llanelli branch is very much united. Awful lot of armchair commentators on this site.
People who don’t get off their backsides, who instead choose to moan downvoting me here. Excuse me if I have no respect for you.
You are the only person I know who thinks that Cardiff West is a Labour/Plaid marginal.
Please don’t make me laugh about the Llanelli Branch when Plaid in Llanelli have come nowhere near unseating Lee Waters at the Senedd and came a very poor Third behind Reform at the General Election.
As for being an arm chair supporter again Plaid shot itself in the foot when a friend of mine Sean Rees a very popular local figure was dumped for an outsider parachuted in by Leanne Woods inner circle.
The muslim vote in Wales is just over 2%.
This is a great result. A victory for radical progressive politics. Whether it’s Green, Plaid, Corbyn’s Party, or the Lib Dem’s, they are offering more than the dreadfully supine, timid, Starmer Labour politics. Voters are at last rejecting the two big party’s which have left a dreadful legacy for Wales.
True.
This is by far the strongest constituency for the Greens in Wales. However, if Corbyn’s Pty roll up next year. Bizarrely claiming that a vote for them is a vote to stop Reform when there are already 2 parties to the left of Labour who are more likely to stop Reform. It will only harm the Greens and Plaid in this constituency and level up the far-right vote.
The Corbyn Ego party stands to cause a lot of problems.
The problem isn’t the Corbyn Protest Party, it’s the lack of a preference voting system. People should be able to support their politics without implicitly backing a terrible alternative.
I guarantee you that it will take a “Unionist” position on the UK and feign that it’s progressive. So yes, it is a problem.
I’d hardly call the Greens view of women ‘progressive’. It’s anything but…
Three female leaders on the trot? What exactly are you trying to say here?
The thurn outs though, this is how the far right can get in. Should be compulsory voting.
Good for Green though.
When I was active in local politics in Manchester over twenty years ago, it was normal in most of the more economically deprived council wards for voter turn-out to be no higher than 10% – 12% in the annual May elections.
In a once-off by-election in a single ward the likely turn-out in percentage terms would be in single figures.
The one thing that is clear from recent by-elections is that there are no longer any safe seats for Labour in Wales. This results in votes being spread far more thinly between five or six parties in elections , which will be even more true when the Corbyn/Saltana party starts to put up candidates. Even three or four years ago, it would have been very unusual for a party to win with less than a quarter of the vote. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. When the Corbyn/Saltana party does start putting up candidates, it will further strip Labour… Read more »
You make some very interesting points with regards to Labour and the proposed new Jeremy Corbyn/Zarah Sultana party – they really need to sort out a party name BTW. As regards Propel maybe taking votes off Plaid this was Neil McEvoy’s backyard – they wont be taking votes off plaid anywhere else in Wales.
Agreed
The labour vote collapses in another council by-election in Wales – not looking good for them in next year’s Senedd election. Not a great result for Plaid either however, especially coming after last week’s disappointing result in Llangennech. If Plaid wants to be the largest party in the Senedd next years tbey need to be winning seats like this one and Llangennech last week. I wouldn’t read too much into Reform’s result – apparently tbey had no real campaign to speak of in the area….but they still won nearly 500 votes. But a very good result for the Greens –… Read more »
Plaid’s problem is that they are pretty much invisible in parts of Wales – most of Gwent, most of Powys, most of Cardiff, Newport and Swansea. Doesn’t auger well.
Thank goodness Reform came well down the table. And to be honest, the result was fairly close between the top three candidates. The true litmus test will be to see what happens in the next full council election, because last time there was a non-Labour victory (Plaid) in Grangetown, the seat was won back by Labour 12 months later.
They’ve tied themselves in knots over women’s rights. Just can’t get past that I’m afraid. A protest vote at best.
Decent result for Propel, blooding a new candidate, with a 12% increase in actual vote. We are a growing voice now where we have teams working. Our candidate, like many members are new to politics. Huge setback for Labour, with another English party being helped up by Plaid in the Greens. Grange was a Lib Dem seat & they have disappeared. Plaid got 44% in 2016, before they dismantled their Cardiff organisation. The past is a different country and the future can be also.
Can’t quite figure out why you’re being down voted really. From the Wales statement in 2020 it looks like policies that many people in Wales already support fundamentally. Direct Democracy, a strong welfare state, decentralized decision making…
Honestly I hope you do better at the next election.
No chance.
We only formed formally 02/03/21. The founders then had to reorientate careers after losing jobs. Literally only the past few months we are really up and running again. Growing nicely in key areas now.
And another big win for the Greens in Newcastle, with a substantial drop in the Labour result. Urban seats that Labour used to hoover up. As Starmer so majestically said, “if you don’t like (MY party), there’s always the door”. Looks like there’s an exodus to the boat deck as his coffin ship sinks.
The Corbyn project however now between 700,000 and 800,000. All to play for.
Congratulations to the Green Party. I don’t believe Green Party policies are anti Wales so hopefully they will continue.
I echo your sentiments in congratulating the Green Party, yet it still has a long way to go to shake off it anti Wales Image.
In the Welsh speaking heartland The Greens are still seen as an Incomers Party.
In Scotland the Greens are an Independent Party but why do they vehemently oppose equality with Scotland and insist on being part of The Green Party of England and Wales.
Embarrassing for Reform.
Excellent.
Grangetown has long been a proudly multicultural community. I’m not at all surprised that they saw through the racist grifter act of Defraud UK.
I believe come next May the Labour party in Wales will be finished the incompetence of Welsh Labour and the Way London Liebour have treated Wales no different from the Tories and they where all thrown out of Wales in the general election but i pray its PLAID gain the most and not the vile Reform they are a FASCIST ENGLISH NATIONALIST PARTY MAKE NO MISTAKE THATIS WHAT THEY ARE
THAT IS TRUE.
There are some very interesting assumptions made in the comments. It wasn’t a great blow to Plaid Cymru. The results were very close. A great blow to Labour is more accurate. Disappointing would be fair. I can say this as a member of the campaign team and attending the count yesterday. I’m uncertain where the large proportion of Welsh speakers live in Grangetown. Also, just because a person speaks Welsh it doesn’t mean they are Plaid Cymru supporters. A large proportion of Labour Cardiff Councillors speak Welsh. I also disagree with the statement that Propel voters are disgruntled Plaid Cymru… Read more »
Lol! Aren’t you a former Propel Councillor? Did that make you disgruntled?
Again, if you don’t think there is a large Welsh speaking middle class population in Grangetown you clearly don’t know the ward. It is a FACT that Welsh speakers tend to be mired in supportive to Plaid. Yet Plaid has failed to win wards this year with large Welsh speaking populations like Cwmllynfell and Llangennech.
You are correct to say that Propel voters are not disgruntled Plaid. We attract a lot of first time voters who stick with us. Pretty disastrous for Plaid though. The cuckoo you invited into the nest kicked you out, as predicted! When I ran your campaign there you got 44% of the vote. 19% now. When the Greens last stood alone in Grange, they got 1.9%. You built up an England and Wales Party. Well done.
It would be interesting to know who kicked who out. My guess would be Plaid kicked out the Greens after getting carried away with opinion polls, as they always do!
It would be interesting to see what Andrea would have these days for Plaid in Ely if she has the guts to stand there rather than in a middle class ward with a large proportion of Welsh speakers. Of course, she has never lived in either the wards she represents!
Well done Matt. Glad to see Labour the real nasty party losing in their strongholds.
Unfortunately there is nothing in the recent bye elections which indicates that Plaid are anywhere near winning next year. Plaid supporters (I think they are) crowing over the fact the Labour lost. Well they beat Plaid, so what does that say?
Reform UK would enter a two man farting competition, putting up both competitors, just to proclaim to the world that it can win anything so turnout here is irrelevant. Their failure here is an Earthquake to be kept to a tremor if they can manage it. My former home area of Grangetown has for years proved that multiculturalism DOES work so don’t call here Braverman. I was sad to see that there were still 634 voters who came out to force home their anti Welsh and racist hate bigotry but I was overjoyed to note that their motives were democratically… Read more »
Thank you Cardiff, good to see your folk didn’t stoop to the levels of Llanelli and vote in someone from the anti Wales party.