Harvest 2026 ‘disappointing’ with cereal yields below historic averages

Mathilde Grandjean, Press Association

This year’s harvest has proved “disappointing” following a summer of extreme weather, with cereal yields significantly below historic averages, a new report has shown.

While winter barley yields were in line with their five-year average at 6.9 tonnes per hectare, wheat, spring barley and oat yields are all below historic averages as harvest draws to a close, according to new data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

With the winter wheat harvest now complete, the report showed average yields edged up to 6.9 tonnes per hectare as harvest progressed in Scotland and northern England, reaching slightly above the 6.8 tonnes per hectare predicted in August.

But this year’s average wheat yields remain below the national 10-year average of 7.9 tonnes per hectare, and 11% below the national five-year average, according to the AHDB.

Spring barley crops were also “one of the most challenging” this season, averaging at 4.8 tonnes per hectare, around 17% below the five-year average.

Oat yields averages reached 4.6 tonnes per hectare, 14% below the UK five-year average, according to the AHDB.

Only oilseed rape crops performed well, with yields averaging at 4 tonnes per hectare, which sits at approximately 19% above the UK five-year average.

The AHDB report also highlighted considerable variation across the country, with average wheat yields ranging from 3.9 tonnes per hectare to 11.5 tonnes per hectare depending on the farm and region.

The board warned the quality of the crops harvested has also been impacted.

“Overall, the final report reinforces a familiar theme from throughout the season: another highly variable harvest shaped by limited rainfall from spring onwards,” the AHDB said.

“While some farms further north have achieved results close to, or above, their long-term averages, the extent of the reductions across the national averages for wheat, spring barley, and oats confirm how challenging harvest 2026 has been for the UK.”

Anthony Hopkins, AHDB director, cereals and oilseeds, said: “Harvest 2026 is now essentially complete, and we can see just how difficult it has been for farmers across many parts of the UK.

“Although crops harvested further north somewhat helped to moderate the significant reductions in the national average yields, the final report highlights the impact that prolonged dry conditions have had on a large numbers of farms.

“The areas and crops with the most significant hit to yields, have also often faced the greatest impact on quality, highlighting the importance of not just focusing on yields alone.”

This comes as the UK is battling increasingly extreme weather fuelled by climate change, which is mostly caused by burning fossil fuels for power, to fuel cars, make industrial products and heat homes and buildings, along with agriculture and clearing forests.

This year, the UK has experienced record-breaking deadly heatwaves in May and June, followed by heatwaves and the driest July on record for England and Wales, plunging the whole of Wales and half of England into drought.

The extremely hot and dry summer comes after a dry spring – and is the second year in a row of extreme heat and drought, interspersed with extremely wet winters in what has been described as “weather whiplash”.

“This is the second, or in some cases third, successive challenging harvest,” Mr Hopkins continued.

“At a time of high input costs, arable farmers in the worst-affected areas are really feeling the financial pressure right now.”

Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst, said: “This final report reinforces just how variable harvest 2026 has been.

“While yields for wheat, oats and spring barley improved slightly as more crops were harvested in Scotland and northern England, the overall picture remains challenging for many growers.”

Ms Plant added: “Average yields only tell part of the story.

“We have seen huge differences between farms, with factors such as soil type, drilling date, previous cropping, local weather conditions and moisture availability all appearing to influence final performance.

“Despite some late improvements, average yields for several key crops remain below both recent and longer-term averages.

“Quality has also been highly variable, which will create additional challenges when storing and marketing grain over the coming months.”

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