Health board warns current NHS model is no longer sustainable

Nation.Cymru Staff

Cardiff and Vale University Health Board has warned that the current NHS model is no longer sustainable as it unveiled a 10-year blueprint to reshape healthcare across the region.

The health board says rising demand, an ageing population and mounting financial pressures mean services must shift away from a hospital-centred approach towards more preventative care delivered closer to home.

The strategy proposes a “single, integrated model of care” that would place greater emphasis on prevention, digital technology and community-based treatment, while reserving hospitals for the most complex cases.

Health board leaders say the current way of delivering care is no longer sustainable, with population growth and increasing numbers of people living with long-term health conditions expected to place additional strain on services over the next decade.

The plan warns that if services continue to operate in their current form, the health board would need an additional 300 to 400 hospital beds and around 3,600 more staff within five years to meet demand – something it describes as both unaffordable and undeliverable. It also estimates its annual financial deficit could reach £560 million by 2030-31 without significant changes to productivity and the way care is delivered.

Instead, the blueprint aims to move away from what it describes as a reactive, hospital-centred model towards one focused on preventing illness, intervening earlier and providing more care in community settings.

Under the proposals, community hubs would play a much greater role in delivering outpatient appointments, diagnostics, planned treatments and follow-up care. Integrated neighbourhood teams bringing together GPs, community services, mental health professionals, social care and voluntary organisations would become the default way of organising local care.

The strategy is built around four broad priorities: giving children the best possible start in life, helping people stay healthy for longer, improving planned care and strengthening services for people with life-threatening or time-critical conditions.

Technology also features heavily in the plans, with greater use of digital records, remote monitoring, artificial intelligence and predictive analytics intended to support earlier diagnosis, improve access and reduce unnecessary hospital visits. The health board also expects advances in genomics, robotics and personalised medicine to play a greater role in care over the coming decade.

The first phase of the plan will focus on improving productivity, reducing hospital stays, cutting waiting times and strengthening regional collaboration with neighbouring NHS organisations. The health board says modelling suggests reducing average hospital stays and improving theatre and outpatient efficiency could create capacity needed to support longer-term reforms.

The Clinical Services Plan follows one of the largest engagement exercises undertaken by Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, involving thousands of members of the public over 20 weeks, followed by a further 13 weeks of co-design with staff and partner organisations.

Health board leaders say some of the priority actions are already being implemented, including work to improve access to services, reduce waiting times and strengthen care across hospitals and community settings.

They added that the health board would continue to engage with patients, staff and partners as the plans are developed over the coming decade, with the aim of ensuring services evolve alongside the changing health needs of the population.