Heavy Labour losses in May could decide Starmer’s future – expert
Sir Keir Starmer’s future could be determined in May as a polling expert warned Labour faces nationwide losses at next year’s elections.
Lord Robert Hayward said the Prime Minister was on course for heavy losses in English council elections, as well as defeat in the Welsh Senedd and a “battering” in the Scottish Parliament on May 7 2026.
Bleak results for Labour could reignite the question of whether Sir Keir should continue to lead the party, which exploded into the headlines in November following anonymous briefing from his allies against potential rivals.
In England, results will depend on where elections go ahead, with a number of councils expected to defer polls to 2027 to focus on a reorganisation of local government.
But elections in London and other metropolitan areas in Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire are set to go ahead.
While these areas have recently been Labour-dominated, Lord Hayward said the party was on course for “very, very large” losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and, in east London, pro-Gaza Independent candidates.
Even the Conservatives could pick up seats in London, he said, although the Tories’ overall result will depend heavily on whether elections go ahead in counties where they won heavily in 2021 but now face major losses.
Gains in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help shore up Kemi Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader, which has come to seem more secure in recent months as her personal polling improves.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, said: “A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.
“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
He added that while Labour and possibly the Conservatives were on course to lose seats in May, there would be no clear victor, but a “cacophony of winners”.
Reform, starting from a low base, is likely to make the most gains, Lord Hayward said, but a range of other parties are expected to claim some sort of victory on the night, with a clear picture perhaps only emerging in the days following the election.
Scotland and Wales
Despite what could be significant changes in England, Lord Hayward suggested it was the results in Scotland and Wales that could have the most long-term significance for the UK.
Last year, Labour had been expecting to supplant the SNP and return to power at Holyrood in 2026.
But that prospect now seems unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the party was on course for “one hell of a battering” while the SNP, the Greens and Reform could do well.
In Wales, the picture is more complicated given the change in the electoral system, the increase in the size of the Senedd and the lowering of the voting age to 16.
Especially in light of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are in line to do well at Labour’s expense.
Success for the SNP and Plaid Cymru could have constitutional implications beyond the impact of the elections on Labour’s leadership.
The SNP is likely to reopen calls for another independence referendum if it wins a majority in Holyrood, while major gains for Plaid Cymru could see more vocal demands for greater devolution to Wales.
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Come on Plaid and Cymru, let’s show them what we are made of…
We’ve rightly pointed out that someone from another country, leading a party from another country, shouldn’t have such a dominant influence over this country. So for the English, an election in another country is not a big deal, unless you’re bitter that a hard left government hasn’t been elected in England for over half a century, with Starmer being only the second Labour leader to win during that time because, like the other, he only won due to a supposed moderate ticket. Starmer will now enter the usual mid term blues when everyone realises they can’t get everything they demanded… Read more »
The only choice for Wales is to elect a majority Plaid Cymru government with a mandate for independence.
Get free of England’s far-right nutters problem. England needs its own independence with the Greens.
So you are saying the hard left are secretly in league with Farage? Please explain.
So you are trying to say I said something that I didn’t say. Read it again.
What I am saying is that the worst Loony Left politics are used by the Nasty Right to put them where they are, one point away from soon becoming the largest party in this country.
History does tell us that the extremes often meet up on the dark side of the political globe, from the Fascist Communist pact that started the last world war to the last leader of Reform in this country taking bribes from the same Communist Russia.
Which Communist Russia is that then?
I could understand what I think you might’ve been trying to say if it was still a first past the post election but the new Senedd system won’t really be affected by tactical voting in the same way. However even in a first past the post system what you say I think betrays an attitude that people have a duty to vote Labour no matter how much they let them down, and if they vote for Zack Polanski or Jeremy Corbyn s parties instead because they better represent their views this is blameworthy because it might let a right wing… Read more »
Yet it was a lack of tactical voting in the US which is what gifted their country to a fascist. Anti-Trump Republicans failing to work together to prevent him from clinching the nomination. The ‘Bernie or Bust brigade’ within the Democrats refusing to go out and vote simply because their preferred candidate did not win. I get your point about holding the mainstream parties to account however when it comes to a candidate who poses a serious threat to Democracy then I don’t think anyone can afford to vote on principle? Moreover, I don’t think tactical voting next time around… Read more »
No they are not in league with Farage however there are certain elements on the far left who do appear to have the same goals as the far right. George Galloway for example. Keep the UK out of the EU, sympathetic to Russia etc.
Headlines like “UK Government wants rail devolution in English regions but not for Wales” aren’t helping them.
Yes i read that on line yesterday SHOWS LIEBOUR ATTITUDE TOWARDS WALES SAME AS TORIES
And as the Tories have joined Reform they have the same attitude towards Wales.
The Tories and Liebour are bad for Wales and people voting Reform would be a real bloody DISASTER FOR WALES
And now we read that the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is “open to considering well-developed proposals for harnessing the tidal range energy in the bays and estuaries around our coastlines”
Unless they’re in Wales of course.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/27/london-eye-architect-proposes-14-mile-tidal-power-station-off-somerset-coast
which unfortunately was a completely misleading headline, and not challenged because there’s nobody is working at the moment
Why is this even on the table when Swansea supposedly proved the concept didn’t fly?
It wasn’t the concept didn’t fly, it was that they couldn’t get the funding.
Fly as a concept for the UK Gov to support. It had backers but couldn’t get central gov to agree a strike price similar to Hinkley so it’ll be interesting to see what numbers this outfit are proposing.
The Labour old guard who will be retiring in May need to rein back.
.
Nothing wrong with promoting diversity of course yet Jane Hutt looking to force some sort of quota of diversity amongst Senedd members doesnt sit well with many
“Do you want to come back to a Senedd in 2026 full of white men”?
i
There’s no one more than myself who wants to see the back of Starmer but have you seen the potential replacements.Angela Rayner,Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting ,there’s no hope.
there are some impressive back benches, it’s surprising they haven’t been promoted in the last reshuffle. I wouldn’t be too surprised if somebody came out of the blue and won it. Al Carns, Dan Jarvis, Louise jones, Mike tapp all seem good eggs to beat reform at GE
You can change the leader but that shouldn’t substantially change the direction of the government which should continue to broadly deliver on the manifesto.
Those dreaming of an undemocratic coup and a lurch to the left are no better than those who backed Liz Truss to rip up Boris Johnson’s manifesto.
Labour coming in with a massive majority should and could have been bold. No doubt Treasury fears of a market backlash has led to the worst of both worlds. Cautious and ineffective as they now seem, other parties will fill the void.
suspect there will be an attempt then to unseat him then. Whoever takes over will follow trend of all recent UK prime ministers since Cameron, who have struggled not merely due to personal failings but because of post Brexit turmoil, impact of the pandemic, media scrutiny and fractured politics making the job unusually difficult. To me it’s also become difficult to see how anyone could be successful in this role at the moment given the political culture in the UK. There is deep structural and cultural pressures in British politics and fracturing of support. In wales alone, our two major parties… Read more »
Yes, an almost impossible job, and a change of Leader won’t change the challenges. The promise of easy solutions from the far right will further undermine our fragile economy and weaken society.
Not without a new voting system. FPTP creates two horse races and a political pendulum that swings between two extremes no-one actually wants. That’s why people have had enough. We need preference voting and governments supported by a majority of voters.
It hasn’t swung between extremes in the past. Having lived in countries with PR, I can assure this this produces equally bad or even worse outcomes. It’s definitely not suited to the UK at the moment
Thatcher was an extreme.
And there comes a point where your “bad or worse” is more a comment on democracy or even humanity than the idea of compromising and deal making.
Coalitions forming, stalling and breaking up aren’t something to be frustrated by. They are the process by which the electorate gets what they really want.
Unlike Thatcherism. Her extremist neoliberal policies weren’t even in the manifesto and boy are we still paying the price for all that.
Starmer promised he would “turn the page” but so far he’s only marked himself out as a torch bearer of managed decline by successive governments since 2010.
If this stagnation continues, Labour will deserve every electoral humiliation coming its way. But I do worry about Farage’s grifter cult seizing power in either Westminster or the Senedd.
I find it bewildering that the only people who can’t see that a rout in May means the end of the line are seemingly Starmer and his crew in the no. 10 bunker. They seem to go out of their way to make it worse for themselves. So be it.
I’m sure at some point he’ll get a seat in the very House of Lords he pledged to abolish and replace with an elected second chamber, whichever way things go in May.