Household energy bills expected to jump to three-year high in October

Henry Saker-Clark, Press Association Deputy Business Editor

Household energy prices are set increase again to the highest level for three years heading into winter, according to new forecasts.

Bills are due to increase despite the Prime Minister’s plan to remove VAT from household electricity bills from October.

The energy price cap is currently expected to increase by 4% in October compared with the current rate, experts at Cornwall Insight said.

Analysts said the increase is driven by continued uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict, which has pushed wholesale energy prices higher.

The ongoing heatwaves across Europe have added further pressure by increasing gas demand for power generation to meet air conditioning and cooling demand.

Cornwall said it expected a typical household to be facing an annual bill of £1,729, up from £1,663, based on an Ofgem’s updated definition of a typical consumer, which came into effect from July to reflect falling household energy use.

It said this would be the equivalent of £1,941 per year based on its previous calculations, up from £1,862 currently.

It would mark the highest average bill since July 2023.

The increased October cap, which will remain in place for three months, will come into force as households start to increase their energy usage further by using their heating more regularly, adding to bills.

Cornwall said the expected increase in October will be less than otherwise expected because of the proposed removal of VAT from household electricity bills.

The Prime Minister previously said this would knock around £45 off the annual Ofgem price cap from October.

However, the experts said the recent swing in global energy prices has more than offset the downward impact of the VAT policy.

Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “Rising energy bills aren’t welcome at the best of times, but with winter approaching this latest hike will hit struggling households especially hard.

“Driven by international conflict rather than domestic policy, it is a stark reminder that our energy bills remain tied to events thousands of miles away.

“Moments like this are the strongest argument for reducing Britain’s reliance on volatile international gas.

“While temporary relief like VAT cuts help soften the blow, they don’t touch the underlying fact that Britain is heavily dependent on imports of natural gas.”

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