Labour handed lifeline as YouGov MRP poll cuts Tory gains in Wales

Boris Johnson. Picture by Cancillería Argentina (CC BY 2.0) and Jeremy Corbyn picture by RevolutionBahrainMC (CC BY 3.0).

The latest YouGov MRP poll has cut the expected Tory gains in Thursday’s election by half, projecting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives will only win a majority of 28 across the UK.

The poll also has the Conservatives failing to win any extra seats in Wales apart from Wrexham and Brecon and Radnorshire. Vale of Clwyd cannot be called with Labour and the Conservatives on 44% of the vote each.

The most recent Welsh Barometer poll published Monday had suggested the Conservatives could win Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, and Wrexham.

The last YouGov MRP poll on November 28 had suggested the Conservatives were headed for a big majority of 68 seats. It also had them winning the Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Môn and Clwyd South.

A projection of a Conservative majority of 28 puts Labour and other parties within touching distance of a hung parliament.

“Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament,” Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said.

The YouGov MRP poll had Plaid Cymru winning Ceredigion, Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, but Labour keeping hold of Ynys Môn.

It also has the Conservatives keeping hold of the Vale of Glamorgan by 47% to 45% despite Labour efforts to unseat the former Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns there.

The Liberal Democrats are once again reduced to no seats across Wales.

The poll suggests that overall the Conservative lead over Labour has been cut to 9% across the UK, with voters now as concerned about the NHS as Brexit.

 

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Leigh Richards
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Leigh Richards

Given the British media have done their level best to shut plaid cymru out – holding numerous televised ‘national debates’ without a plaid representative – if plaid can as this poll predicts manage to retain their 4 seats it would be a real achievement

Mary Thorpe
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Mary Thorpe

The Right Wing media shut out everyone except the Torys. who they lie for all the time..Shocking and shameful

Bev
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Bev

Plaid Cymru and the SNP aren’t national parties they are regional parties and shouldn’t be present in national debates.

Rhosddu
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Rhosddu

You’re confused in your use of the terms ‘national’ and ‘regional’. Do not be misled by the media and politicians describing state-wide issues as ‘national’. There is a British state, but no British nation (or rather, there are four).

Huw Davies
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Huw Davies

Lifeline ? The only lifeline is that produced at the ballot box on Thursday which requires effort. Anything else is idiot journalistic speculation. Focus on policies and track records, that might help the public decide but all this nonsense about polls is just idle gossip. Parties would have been wiser to quit the outright lying and exaggeration, Joe & Jane Public are utterly pi**ed off with the entire charade.

Sian
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Sian

There’s everything to fight for…. Imagine if the Tories get in again and Alun Cairns keeps his seat in the Vale of Glamorgan…. that would be a disaster…. the man is a disgrace he hasn’t done anything good for Wales… Let’s hope that the polls are right for the rest of Wales…. We really need to keep the Tories out…

Bev
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Bev

I think Cairns will win and continue to get up nats noses

Rhosddu
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Rhosddu

Who cares what you think? Most of you’re comments, under a variety of aliases (‘Pete’, etc., have been one-line put-downs that have contributed nothing to the debate and have merely allowed you a moment’s therapy during which to exorcise your hatred of Wales and its people. Get a life, mun.

Mary Thorpe
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Mary Thorpe

100% behind Cobyn & Labour, Bojo the liar, has hidden from Interviews because he cannot stand up to scrutiny, unable to say thing other than ‘get Britix done ‘ much like Theresa Mays ‘ Strong and Stable Government ‘, while he has the NHS on the table for trade with the USA… He is a pathological liar, morally bankrupt, corrupt and shameful man

John Young
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John Young

It’s not just Boris that’s scared. I’ve lost track of the number of times Newsnight has apologised for there being no Tory representative available to defend their party’s record/manifesto.

There can be no excuse for that.