The latest YouGov MRP poll has cut the expected Tory gains in Thursday’s election by half, projecting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives will only win a majority of 28 across the UK.
The poll also has the Conservatives failing to win any extra seats in Wales apart from Wrexham and Brecon and Radnorshire. Vale of Clwyd cannot be called with Labour and the Conservatives on 44% of the vote each.
The most recent Welsh Barometer poll published Monday had suggested the Conservatives could win Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, and Wrexham.
The last YouGov MRP poll on November 28 had suggested the Conservatives were headed for a big majority of 68 seats. It also had them winning the Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Môn and Clwyd South.
A projection of a Conservative majority of 28 puts Labour and other parties within touching distance of a hung parliament.
“Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament,” Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said.
The YouGov MRP poll had Plaid Cymru winning Ceredigion, Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, but Labour keeping hold of Ynys Môn.
It also has the Conservatives keeping hold of the Vale of Glamorgan by 47% to 45% despite Labour efforts to unseat the former Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns there.
The Liberal Democrats are once again reduced to no seats across Wales.
The poll suggests that overall the Conservative lead over Labour has been cut to 9% across the UK, with voters now as concerned about the NHS as Brexit.