Labour led by Andy Burnham could beat Reform in general election, poll suggests

An Andy Burnham-led Labour Party could beat Reform UK in a general election, a poll has suggested.

The survey, carried out for More in Common and seen exclusively by the Press Association, found that Labour would get an eight-point boost with Mr Burnham at its helm and move ahead of Nigel Farage’s party, securing 30% of the vote to Reform’s 27% if an election was held tomorrow.

The Conservatives would trail on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and the Green Party on 7%.

The findings will encourage backers of the Greater Manchester mayor, who believe he should replace Sir Keir Starmer to reverse Labour’s electoral woes and prevent Mr Farage from becoming prime minister.

Mr Burnham is seeking to return to Westminster via the upcoming Makerfield by-election and potentially challenge Sir Keir for the keys to No 10.

As Labour leader, Mr Burnham would win back a third of voters who have ditched the party since the 2024 general election, according to More in Common’s survey of 2,599 Britons.

Nearly half of defectors to the Greens or Lib Dems would return to Labour, as well as a fifth of those who have moved rightwards to Reform or the Tories.

Mr Burnham’s leadership would dent the Green Party’s momentum under Zack Polanski, with its support dropping from 11% to 7% in a hypothetical election.

More in Common UK director Luke Tryl said: “This is one of the most high-stakes by-elections in history, and the future trajectory of the Labour Party, and indeed British politics more broadly, may depend on what happens in the next month.

“So far, it looks like Andy Burnham’s appeal extends beyond Greater Manchester.

“In a hypothetical general election, he could give Labour a lead over Reform – winning back progressive voters who have drifted away, but also making gains with some of those the party has lost to Reform.

“That said, people recognise the mayorality and premiership are different roles and a large part of Burnham’s appeal rests on championing the north and fighting Westminster – if he is successful in Makerfield, it could be challenging to sustain his reputation as an outsider from within the House of Commons, especially during this era of anti-politics.”

Four in 10 of those surveyed from across the political spectrum believed Mr Burnham had done a good job as Greater Manchester mayor, compared to less than 1 in 10 saying he had done a bad job.

But answers were less clear-cut when asked whether he would be a good prime minister, with 31% thinking he would, 20% saying he would not, and nearly half giving no opinion.

And most – 81% – believed being prime minister was a difficult job, compared to just over half saying the Greater Manchester mayor role was tough.

Asked to describe Mr Burnham in a single word, the most common responses were “ambitious”, “good”, and “hopeful”, while more negative ones included “opportunist” and “arrogant”.

Mr Burnham has been confirmed as Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, which was triggered by former minister Josh Simons quitting to open up a path for his to return to the Commons.

In order to have a tilt at the leadership, Mr Burnham must first win the seat, which Mr Simons won in 2024 by just 5,399 votes while Reform comfortably won every ward in the constituency at last month’s local elections.