Labour soars to 20% lead over Tories in new Welsh tracker poll

A new Welsh tracker poll has revealed a 20% lead for Labour over the Conservatives, whose support is down 12 points from the 2019 General Election.

The first Wales specific polling carried by the global strategic consulting firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies sees the Labour Party quadruple its lead in Westminster Voting Intention from 5% in 2019.

A majority of Welsh voters also describe the current UK Government as incompetent – with negative approval ratings across all the policy areas they were quizzed on.

62% of Welsh voters cite the economy and the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election.

Other commonly selected issues include immigration (28%), the Environment (21%), and Housing (18%).

Only 5% of respondents cite Welsh Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow.

The full results (with changes from the 2019 General Election in parentheses) are:

Labour 44% (+3)

Conservatives 24% (-12)

Plaid Cymru 12% (+2)

Reform UK 9% (+4)

Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)

Green 4% (+3)

Other 0% (-1)

Sample size: 1,251

Margin of Error: 2.77%

While Keir Starmer leads Rishi Sunak by ten points as the person Welsh voters think would be a better Prime Minister (39% to 29%), the Labour leader only has a net approval rating of -7% in Wales (38% disapprove vs 31% approve).

As for Sunak, he receives a net rating of -15% (43% disapprove vs 28% approve).

Incompetent

A majority of Welsh voters (61%) say the current UK Government is incompetent, with the Government also earning negative approval ratings for its performance on every policy issue listed, including on the key issues of the NHS (-53%), the economy (-42%), and immigration (-40%).

Voters in Wales have a more charitable view of the Welsh Government. 33% regard the Welsh Government as competent, against 30% who regard it as incompetent, although Mark Drakeford’s  administration earns negative net approval ratings for its handling of every policy area apart from Coronavirus (+25%).

Welsh voters express mixed views on the success of devolution itself.

While 63% would vote in favour of keeping a Welsh parliament in a referendum, only 23% say devolution has so far been a success. 26% say it has been a failure.

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, 60% of voters in Wales would currently vote ‘No, against independence,’ while 29% would vote, ‘Yes, for Independence.’