Support our Nation today - please donate here

Labour would defeat SNP at next Westminster election – poll

17 Jun 2023 3 minute read
Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf. Photo Lesley Martin

Labour is on course to defeat the SNP in Scotland at the next general election for the first time since 2010, according to a new poll.

The research for the Sunday Times projects that Scottish Labour would win 26 seats at Westminster, up from one currently.

This would put the party ahead of the SNP, which is predicted to take 21, down from 45 currently.

The Conservatives are projected to take seven and the Liberal Democrats five, adding one extra seat each.

The Panelbase poll has been carried out since the arrest last Sunday of Scotland’s former first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, who was released without charge pending further investigation.

The research also found that support for the SNP has dropped, with 34% saying they would vote for the party at the next general election, down five points compared with Panelbase’s last poll in March.

This puts it on a level with Labour, up three points over the same period, while the Conservatives would take 18% and the Liberal Democrats and Others 7% each, the poll suggests.


Meanwhile Ms Sturgeon has seen her popularity fall by 38 points since research in February to minus 18.

First Minister Humza Yousaf has a rating of minus 12, while Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar scored minus 2 and Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross minus 34.

The poll also found that 44% of those questioned said Scotland should be an independent country, half said it should not, and the remainder did not know.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “The polls are clear – Labour has ended the SNP’s stranglehold on Scottish politics and is fighting to win seats across the country.

“The people of Scotland know that only Labour can kick the Tories out and deliver the change we need – all the SNP offer is more chaos and sleaze.

“The road to a Labour government runs through Scotland, and the next Labour government will deliver for the people of Scotland.

“From tackling the cost-of-living crisis to generating thousands of green jobs, Scottish Labour is the change Scotland needs.”

– Panelbase interviewed 1,007 people aged 16 and over in Scotland between June 12 and 15.


SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said: “Following a tough few weeks for the party, support for the SNP remains strong – but we will continue to take absolutely nothing for granted and work every day to deliver for the people of Scotland.

“Until the next election, the people-powered SNP campaign will bring that positive message of a fairer, greener and more equal nation to the doorsteps and will fight relentlessly for every single vote.

“Only the full powers of independence can protect Scotland from the damage of Brexit and the mismanagement of Tory governments Scotland doesn’t vote for.

“The SNP remain the political powerhouse to deliver that change.”

Support our Nation today

For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.

Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Our Supporters

All information provided to Nation.Cymru will be handled sensitively and within the boundaries of the Data Protection Act 2018.