Labour’s drop in Wales the most significant statistic of this year’s elections, says pollster

Martin Shipton

The decrease in Labour’s support in Wales provided the most compelling statistic of the May elections, according to a leading pollster.

In an online briefing for journalists, Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, said: “Change drove the election in Wales. Four in five Welsh people said it’s time for change.

“Labour really suffered from having that double incumbency effect. I genuinely think this graph [showing Labour’s loss of support] maybe of all of them is the most extraordinary. They’ve got 11% of the vote there. This is the lowest share of the vote that Labour has had since the dawn of equal suffrage, which is pretty extraordinary. They weren’t just defeated, they were absolutely driven out of Wales. And of course the First Minister lost her seat.

“Another point is that the areas that really strongly voted Labour in the election in 2021 were where you ended up with the highest Reform share in these elections. So Reform did well in the Valleys, the cradle of British Labour politics.”

Tryl said that focus group discussions confirmed that in Wales devolution was much more of a fault line than independence: “Voting for Plaid Cymru wasn’t about getting independence immediately. It was about standing up for Wales. It was getting someone who would give Wales a voice. A significant proportion of those who voted for Plaid said that while they were supporting Plaid, they wouldn’t vote for Wales becoming an independent country.

“Interestingly, Reform voters overwhelmingly think that the Senedd should be abolished, despite that not being Reform’s policy.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth had positive approval ratings because he was seen to respect Wales, which is arguably one of the most important metrics, and was the party leader who would stand up for Wales.But he’s still, for many people, an unknown quantity.”

In the Senedd election, only 40% of those who voted for Plaid Cymru had done so before.

Makerfield

Tryl also discussed the forthcoming Makerfield by-election, where Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is trying to make a comeback to Westminster and challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party.

He said: “Makerfield is a seat which is sort of tailor made for Reform to do well in. Two thirds voted for Leave at the referendum in 2016. It was one of Reform’s closest second places in the 2024 general election. They took over half the vote in this round of local elections and didn’t fall below 40% in a single ward.

“In Makerfield, it is almost 97% white, with a lower graduate percentage and an older population. So all things being equal, this should be an easy Reform gain. That said, you have to balance that against what I basically describe as the Andy Burnham factor, which is that people can point to tangible achievements that Andy Burnham has made as Mayor.

“And more than that, people in an era of change see him as being anti-Westminster. They see him as being outside of the system. There’s about a 20 point Burnham boost in the polls. And so when you model it I think you start out with Burnham as a very narrow favourite, but the campaign could matter a lot.

“One thing I did want to touch on is there’s been a big question about Brexit and how much does it hurt someone. I think you can risk making a bit of a caricature of voters in somewhere like Makerfield, by assuming that they are all still passionate Leave voters. Actually, it is probably the case that, all things being equal, Makerfield would now narrowly vote to Remain.”