Landmark study to track Senedd election voters

A four-year, £1m research project will track public attitudes and voting behaviour for Wales’ 2026 Senedd election, which will be the first to take place under a new electoral system.

The UK Research and Innovation Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) has awarded funding to academics from Swansea and Aberystwyth universities to lead the Welsh Election Study 2026 (WES 2026).

The team will work with the Wales Institute of Social Research and Data (WISERD) to gather and publish impartial survey data on Welsh politics.

Constitutional change

The project, Place, Power, and Political Engagement will study voter behaviour at a time of major constitutional change with the number of MSs increasing from 60 to 96 next year, with a new voting system set to reshape Welsh democracy.

Professor Alison Park, Deputy Executive Chair of the ESRC, said the study would form part of the UK’s wider investment in long-term electoral research: “Since 1999, the Welsh Election Study has been a vital lens into Welsh politics, elections and voter behaviour. We look forward to seeing the insights from the next study, which will build on the excellent work of the teams which preceded them.”

Professor Matt Wall of Swansea University, who will lead the project, said the study would put Wales at the forefront of election research: “This is an exciting opportunity to deepen our understanding of political behaviour in Wales and ensure high-quality, accessible data supports informed public debate and policymaking.

“By working with WISERD and drawing on new techniques, the 2026 study will allow us to analyse Welsh politics in ways not previously possible.”

‘Critical time’

Dr Anwen Elias of Aberystwyth University said the research would capture opinion “at a critical time for Welsh democracy”, while Professor Adam Hedgecoe, Director of WISERD, described it as an example of “collaborative, cross-institutional research that WISERD has pioneered in Wales.”

The project will include comparative analysis with other UK nations, as well as international studies.

In the run up to the election WES 2026 will also launch a website, podcast series, and school-based activities to engage young voters and share findings with the public.

The 2026 Senedd election will take place on Thursday 7 May.