Lib Dem concern over possible Senedd Budget deal with Labour

Martin Shipton

A number of Welsh Liberal Democrats are unhappy that their leader may be negotiating a secret deal with the Welsh Government to get its Budget for 2025-26 through the Senedd.

Speculation is mounting that Jane Dodds – the only Lib Dem Senedd Member – will provide Eluned Morgan’s administration with the extra vote it needs to get the Budget passed.

Earlier this year Plaid Cymru pulled out of the Cooperation deal it negotiated with the Welsh Government in 2021 when Mark Drakeford was the First Minister.

No confidence motion

It left when Vaughan Gething, who succeeded Mr Drakeford, refused to resign after the Senedd passed a motion of no confidence in him following his refusal to acknowledge that he was wrong to accept donations totalling £200,000 to his Welsh Labour leadership campaign from a businessman convicted of environmental offences.

A prominent Welsh Liberal Democrat told us: “Now that the agreement with Plaid is over, the only alternative for the Welsh Government is to make some kind of deal with Jane Dodds. But a lot of people are worried that the Liberal Democrats won’t get much out of it, as we didn’t when Kirsty Williams became Education Minister for three years. Kirsty did well out of it, but the party didn’t benefit at all.”

Another Lib Dem source said: “A lot of Welsh Liberal Democrats don’t rate Jane Dodds, and don’t believe she will be able to get substantial concessions from the Welsh Government in return for supporting its Budget. They don’t like the way she stitched up [former Assembly Member] Bill Powell by getting him to stand in Brecon and Radnor at the last Senedd election when she stood in the Mid and West Wales regional seat and got elected. It was pretty obvious at the time that we wouldn’t win Brecon and Radnor at the election in 2021.”

‘Cosied up’

A third Welsh Liberal Democrat insider told us: “Jane appears to have cosied up to Welsh Labour in quite a big way. She seems reluctant to criticise the Welsh Government, even though she’s been critical of the UK Labour government under Keir Starmer. Some of us think that’s a sign that she’s doing a deal with the Welsh Government and doesn’t want to upset them.”

During a Plaid Cymru-led debate in the Senedd on Wednesday October 23 about the forthcoming UK Budget, Ms Dodds said: “I was left speechless by Peter Fox saying that the Welsh Labour Government had failed to stand up for Wales, when the Welsh Conservatives for 14 years did nothing to stand up for Wales. The people of Wales quite rightly expect that a Labour Government in Westminster would forge a meaningful and challenging partnership and relationship with the Welsh Government—one that would secure the funding and the cooperation needed to reverse the years of decline that we’ve been left with.”

Mr Drakeford, now the Finance Minister, said later in the debate: “I would simply say, as far as the Conservative amendment is concerned, it is the product of collective amnesia. Who would have believed, reading [the Tory] amendment, that the finances of the United Kingdom had been in their hands for 14 long years? I agreed with everything that Jane Dodds had to say on that.”

Discussions

We emailed Ms Dodds’ office saying: “We’ve been contacted by some Lib Dem sources who believe that Jane Dodds is likely to support the Welsh Government’s Budget for 2025-26. Have there been any discussions involving Jane about this possibility?

“Those who have contacted us are concerned that the Lib Dems may not get much out of such a deal. Are there any demands Jane is making in terms of policy and spending?

It’s also been suggested to us that Jane has been “pulling her punches”, and not criticising the Welsh Government with the rigour one might expect (as distinct from her criticisms of the UK Labour government).”

A spokesman for Ms Dodds did not comment on whether Ms Dodds had been in talks with the Welsh Government about backing the Budget, but said: “Fighting for a better deal for her constituents and everyone in Wales has always been one of Jane’s top priorities.

“It is difficult to see how anyone can say or imply that they know how Jane is voting on a budget that doesn’t yet exist. And those who do claim to know this may not be as plugged into the Liberal Democrats as they claim to be.

“Whether it’s tackling child poverty or fighting to clean our rivers and coastlines, Jane has a clear record of demanding better from the Welsh Labour government. And this record will not be changing anytime soon.”

The draft Budget will be published on December 10, with a debate at the Senedd on February 4.

The final Budget will be published on February 25, and debated in the Senedd on March 4.