Lib Dems hope for upset in what used to be their Welsh stronghold

Martin Shipton

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are hoping that some “bread and butter” promises will lead them to success in a constituency that comprises a former seat that returned Liberal MPs for more than a century, except for an interlude of four years.

Once seen as one of Britain’s most rural and isolated constituencies, Montgomeryshire elected Liberal or Liberal-affiliated candidates from 1880 until a Tory victory in the 1979 general election.

In the 1983 general election it was the only seat in England and Wales where a sitting Conservative MP was unseated, with the seat recaptured by the Liberals. But it was won again by the Conservatives in 2010, from when they held the seat until a larger version of it was won by Labour’s Steve Witherden in 2024 – the first time Montgomeryshire had ever been represented by a Labour MP.

There were strong local factors that contributed to the decline of the Liberal vote. The late Lib Dem Assembly Member Mick Bates was convicted of assaulting a paramedic who came to his aid when he fell over after a heavy drinking session in a late night steak house in Cardiff. The increasingly eccentric Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik – who recently joined Reform UK – also came to be seen as a liability rather than an asset.

For the purposes of the Senedd election, Montgomeryshire – or Maldwyn, as it is known in Welsh – has been joined up with the Plaid Cymru stronghold of Gwynedd to form the new super constituency of Gwynedd Maldwyn.

The Lib Dem election campaign was launched by the party’s only MP in Wales, David Chadwick, who represents the neighboring new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Their optimistic hope is to elect Llanidloes County Councillor Glyn Preston to represent the region in Cardiff Bay.

Cllr Preston is joined on the party’s Gwynedd Maldwyn list by Welshpool councillors Richard Church and Carol Robinson, forming what Chadwick sees as a strong local team with deep roots across Montgomeryshire and north Powys.

Gwynedd Maldwyn is one of the Welsh Liberal Democrats’ top five target seats in the Senedd elections, being considered a historic heartland for the party. The Welsh Liberal Democrats regained the seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe in the South of Powys at the last general election and also have the highest number of councillors across Powys.

Changes to the Senedd’s electoral system mean that candidates now require roughly 12% of the vote to secure a seat – a target local activists see as “doable”.

Among the local priorities outlined by Cllr Preston at the campaign launch were tackling high waiting lists, fixing social care, which now accounts for almost 40% of Powys County Council’s budget, improving high streets through the reform of business rates and tackling the high rates of rural depopulation.

The party also wants to further progress the North Powys Health and Wellbeing Hub in Newtown, which will allow more patients to be treated closer to home in North Powys, rather than travelling to Shropshire. The project was given a major boost last year when Welsh Lib Dem Leader Jane Dodds secured £450,000 of capital funding to progress the project.

Social care

A party spokesperson said: “Across Wales, the Lib Dems’ main focuses are fixing social care, tackling sewage pollution in rivers and tackling the high cost of living through improving access to affordable childcare.”

Local Lib Dem campaigners say the political landscape in Wales is shifting rapidly, with the collapse in Conservative support leaving many voters in the centre and centre-right looking for a new political home.

They argue that Labour has let Wales down after more than two decades in power, pointing to poor outcomes in key public services and a failure to properly support rural communities.

The party has also criticised proposals for Welsh independence backed by Plaid Cymru and the Greens, warning they would be deeply damaging for border counties like Montgomeryshire, hitting local businesses, farmers and schools, while making cross-border healthcare even more complicated and costly. They also argue such plans would waste taxpayers’ money at a time when public services are already under pressure.

Cllr Preston said: “I’m incredibly proud to be standing for Montgomeryshire, the place I grew up and a place with a strong sense of community and huge potential for the future.

“This campaign is about delivering real, practical improvements to people’s lives, cutting NHS waiting times, fixing social care, supporting our high streets and making sure young people can build their futures here instead of feeling they have to leave.

“I will make sure Montgomeryshire has a strong, positive voice in Cardiff Bay, one that focuses on getting things done and delivering for local people.”

‘Real opportunity’

Chadwick said: “There is a real opportunity here for the Welsh Liberal Democrats to win in Gwynedd Maldwyn and restore strong local representation for Montgomeryshire.

“Whilst I’m already fighting for Powys in Westminster, more Welsh Liberal Democrat colleagues in the Senedd will help challenge ministers in Cardiff Bay, who too often forget Mid Wales exists.

“Glyn Preston will be a tireless advocate for this region, working closely with me to ensure that people here are no longer overlooked and that we finally see progress on the issues that matter most, from healthcare to local economic growth.”