Lib Dems urge voters to ‘game the system’ to block Reform

Nation.Cymru staff

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have urged voters to “game the system” in the final days of the Senedd election campaign, arguing that tactical support in key areas could prevent Reform UK from gaining seats.

The party said the new electoral system means final seats in several constituencies could be decided by narrow margins, creating direct contests between Reform and the Liberal Democrats rather than larger parties.

Focusing on areas including Swansea, Cardiff, Powys and Ceredigion, the Lib Dems say their campaign has been concentrated on a small number of target seats where they believe they are best placed to win representation.

Leader Jane Dodds said voters should consider how the system operates when casting their ballots.
“Voters need to game the system Labour designed if they want to keep Reform UK out of the Senedd,” she said.

“In some areas, additional votes for Plaid Cymru are unlikely to translate into extra seats, but could split the vote in a way that allows Reform to take the final position instead of us.

“If progressive voters unite behind us where we are strongest, we can shut Reform out and protect key public services.”

The intervention comes as the final major poll prior to the vote suggested that Plaid Cymru is on course to emerge as the largest party.

A survey for ITV Cymru Wales, conducted by YouGov, puts Plaid on 33% of the vote, four points ahead of Reform on 29%.

Using MRP modelling under the new 96-seat system, Plaid is projected to win 43 seats compared with 34 for Reform, while Labour is forecast to take 12. The Conservatives are projected to win four seats, with the Greens on two and the Liberal Democrats on one.

Close race

Although Plaid would fall short of a majority, the projections point to a potential path to government, with analysts warning that small changes in vote share could have a significant impact on seat totals.

The poll also found that 43% of voters expect Plaid to lead the next Welsh Government, compared with 15% for Reform.

Dr Jac Larner, of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, said the overall shape of the result was becoming clearer, but stressed that the race remained close.

He said Plaid had opened a “small gap” in the final days of the campaign, adding that even minor shifts in support could produce “outsized impacts” under the new system.