Lord Hain warns of ‘dangerous’ political shift in Wales
Hayley Jones
Former Secretary of State for Wales Lord Peter Hain has warned that the rise of Reform in Wales reflects deep structural changes in Welsh communities and fears it could lead to a shock result at the next Senedd election.
Lord Hain, who served as Welsh Secretary of State from 2002 to 2008 and as MP for Neath from 1991 to 2015 believes that the same political forces that drove the 2016 Brexit vote in Wales are now feeding Reform’s rise in Wales.
He said: “I did foresee the impact of deindustrialisation in Wales, the decline of trade unions and I did say to everybody that it was dangerous: dangerous for the Labour Party and dangerous for politics. So I don’t think the fallout is surprising. It’s a similar phenomenon to what happened during the Brexit campaign.
“I took part in Welsh Labour’s campaign and I knocked on doors in the valleys. It was pretty evident talking to people on the doorstep as to what the sentiment was.
He recalls how he warned colleagues at the time that the “Leave sentiment” in Wales was being “underestimated”. He added: “In fact, I did phone the ‘Remain Campaign CEO and told him what I had experienced, he said that there was nothing to worry about and that they had a ‘plan’.
“But they didn’t and they didn’t foresee it. It was a severe defeat.”
The current member of the House of Lords believes that Welsh “leave voters”, many of whom felt ignored are now forming a core part of Reform’s support. He said: “There was evidence then that this phenomena was happening.”
Collapse of Labour vote
Lord Hain revisited the stages of collapse for the Labour vote in Wales and pointed to a steep fall in Labour majorities in parts of Wales over recent decades.
Mr Hain quoted how, in 1997, he won the Neath constituency for Labour with 30,324 votes, a majority of 26,741 over the Conservatives.
At the time, Neath had never experienced a majority on this scale,. However by 2015 and one year before the Brexit vote, that majority had dropped to just 9,548 when the Labour candidate for that same area Christina Rees had the support of 16,270 votes.
Mr Hain stressed that this shift was not driven by a surge in opposition support, but by disengagement among Labour’s traditional base.
“Basically, Labour voters stayed at home,” he said, referring to the 2016 Brexit vote.
The decline, he reiterated, mirrors the loss of large workplaces, the weakening of trade unions, and the breakdown of tightly knit working-class communities, particularly in former industrial and mining areas.
He said: “Trade unions disappeared, large workplaces disappeared, and that cohesive working-class community dissolved.”
Labour unpopularity
Despite the shift, Lord Hain believes that Welsh Labour could still recover some ground, particularly under Eluned Morgan.
He said: “If Welsh Labour fights a presidential campaign, then I think it could do much better than currently predicted.”
However, he warned that Labour’s prospects in Wales are being heavily shaped by perceptions of the UK Labour government.
“UK Labour’s unpopularity is damaging more than anything Welsh Labour has or hasn’t done.”
Lord Hain, who has known First Minister Eluned Morgan since the mid 1990s, believes that she is still “capable of reconnecting with voters if the party adopts a more direct, personality-led campaign.”
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Personally I think it’s too late to change the perception of Eluned Morgan, and indeed some polls are even predicting she may lose her seat in the Senedd!
I think Eluned Morgans personal appeal outruns Labours appeal. I can see her increasing Labours support a bit in the campaign but she can’t undo the sheer baggage of 27 years in power and can’t do anything about the damage to the Labour brand being done by Reeves and Starmer.
No matter what Welsh Labour does now – it will be too late. People want change and that is reflected in the polls.
The question is how much change do voters want? If a change of faces is enough, that suits Plaid. If voters want a change of agenda, that suits Reform.
The established parties had decades to address Wales’ problems in a far more robust and constructive manner. Instead it became a time of gestures and rhetoric. Those who have suffered most became disaffected and angry hence the occasional gesture from them such as Brexit and now Reform. All well and good for the bright sparks on here to repeatedly declare that such people are “dull” or “stupid”, but the real dullness and stupidity is most commonly manifested among those politicians who saw the problem and proceeded to ignore its intensity.
I think that is a very valid point. Alot of pollsters cite the moment that Hillary Clinton declared potential Trump voters to be a “basket of deplorables” as the moment that the 2016 election swung Trumps way. Any party which blames the voters for being too stupid to vote properly is on a one way path to defeat. That’s why I think this narrative that people voting Labour, Plaid, Green or Lib Dem are virtuous and enlightened whilst anyone voting Reform or Tory is either evil or stupid is a very dangerous narrative for those perpetuating it.
In other words we need to keep on voting Labour to ensure that Wales remains politically stable.
Basically. I feel they are going to ramp up the Labour propaganda and doom mongering as we get closer to the election. “Only Labour can keep the status quo!”. Labour has had enough of a chance and look where it has gotten us.
Reform have a nasty press pack backing them up with some dubious players in the info market including Steve Bannon, friends with Epstein when he was alive. That such a party polls so well in Wales is terrible. They will wreck and break things for trump. I hope Plaid pull it out the fire.
Starmer lost the plot with Reeves which is annoying because they have also done quite a bit.
Any support for Reform in Wales is the result of the 26 years of missed opportunities by Welsh Labour, and historical neglect by both UK Labour and English Conservative governments at Westminster who largely favour the England. And any Labour supporters in Wales who genuinely have our country’s best interests at heart should vote for Plaid Cymru in May to stop Conservative Dan Thomas and Reform from using and abusing Wales on behalf of their cult leader Nigel Farage. Because we will suffer if Reform holds the balance of power in May, and it is no good Peter Hain bemoaning… Read more »
A lot has changed in the past 10 years in Wales and it’s the youngsters that are driving it. They by and large are angry about the disastrous Brexit and they have every right to be. Of course some uneducated will fall for the English Nationalists rhetoric but Plaid will win the election
Important to understand that the Treaty of Rome, founding principles of the EU, protects the territorial integrity of member states. We saw this being played out with Catalunya and we also saw the Spanish veto being threatened during the Scottish independence referendum. For this reason I voted LEAVE. Now, as the United Kingdom is a “third country”. The EU now has no constitutional need to protect the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. Quite the opposite, as we saw with Slovenia, Slovakia and the Baltic states. An independent Wales, like Scotland, can now choose it’s own destiny, an EFTA application… Read more »
Ireland left the Commonwealth quite a few years before EU accession, and indeed 9 years before the Treaty of Rome in 1948!
The Treaty of Rome was renamed the “Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union” in 2009 and the Treaty of Lisbon, and the EU itself remains somewhat neutral on the whole subject of independence, UDI. which is what Catalonia effectively tried to do is forbidden, but negotiated secession is permitted under EU law.
https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/catalonia-secession-and-the-eu/
Ireland formally left the British Commonwealth on 18 April 1949.
The result of the 2017 Catalan independence referendum was 92% Yes, 8% no. The veto was exercised by Spain under the ‘legal terms’ of its membership of the EU. Do you think Westminster, had the United Kingdom remained within the EU, would have treated Wales or Scotland any differently?
The difference is that the Scottish referendum was legally authorised by the UK Government, whereas the Catalan one was not authorised under Spanish law. In no way am I defending Spain’s position regarding Catalunya, but International bodies such as the EU will tend to follow the legal frameworks of their member states and not recognise territories that unilaterally breakaway. Doing so would set a precedent that risks destabilising other member states.
Labour have had over 100 years of being the dominant political party in Cymru with 26 years of power in the Senedd. We are amongst the most economically deprived in Europe. It’s time to say enough is enough. The British Labour party (there is no ‘Welsh’ Labour, the ‘Welsh’ bit is mere branding) have pushed a British history agenda in our schools for years. Now Labour grandees like Lord Hain are bleating on about Brexit (Labour voters stayed at home partly because Jeremy Corbin thought the EU were damaging his dream of a British socialist utopia – deep down he… Read more »
Wow brexit was Corbyns fault. Did you fall and hit your head? Or are just not that bright and read some right wing nonsense on social media and believed it?
I’m sure everyone fell for Farage and Johnsons lies and Cameron who was in charge of the Remain campaign didnt want the pesky EU looking into his families off shore investments or his beloved party being split by those who hated the EU. Bur yes its all Corbyns fault. At least if you are going to blame the man, learn to spell his name correctly.
Jeremy Corbyn has always been a eurosceptic – if you didn’t know that then do some reading on him. He never made it a secret and in the 1980’s, opposition to the EU was a major part of his politics.
We need to bear in mind that all British unionist parties are English and do whatever England wants. We here a in Wales are too often just a footnote. Remember this when casting your vote.
Farage will do what Trump wants. It will be worse.
Peter Hain is a wise man and here i suppose we should be grateful that he targetted his political shift warning at the looming Farij freakshow and not at Plaid Cymru. Yes, we may expect that he would give some encouraging words to Labour but he is clear in his wisdom that he knows that what is left alive on Labours’ corpse will have to work with Plaid from May the 8th.
IMO, much of the disengagement with Labour in the Neath Constituency happened whilst Peter Hain was MP.
An early example of a ‘parachuted’ candidtae into a ‘safe Labour Seat’.
He denigrated many workers in his area, eg inferring that TRW/Cam Gears workers were to blame for being made redundant.
Hain was more interested in self promotion, rather than defending his constituents – thus why people turned their backs on his version of ‘Labour’ his failure to uphold socialist principles.
What I think is particularly fascinating about this election is that Plaid is positioning itself as the change AND the continuity all at once. On the one hand, there is alot of rhetoric about change, renewal, fresh start after 27 years of Labour etc. Yet, there is no actual agenda for any change; in policy terms its all very “steady as she goes and don’t let Reform change things”. On yesterdays BBC Wales Politics, the Plaid Health spokeman was grilled on Betsi Cadwaladar Health Board and his plan was essentially to leave things as they are but ask the component… Read more »