Major new poll shows Welsh Conservative cabinet members both losing their seats

A major new MRP poll which interviewed 6,237 participants projects that the Conservatives would be reduced to just two constituencies in Wales at a General Election.

Both the Welsh Secretary David TC Davies and the Chief Whip Simon Hart would lose their seats, according to the latest MRP nowcast from Savanta.

MRP polls are thought to be more accurate at predicting elections because they record lots of other data about the people who respond and use that to devise a mathematical model of how various groups of people are likely to vote.

According to this MRP poll, of 14 Conservative seats, only Fay Jones in Brecon and Radnorshire and Craig Williams in Montgomeryshire would survive the Welsh wipeout.

Every other seat in Wales would go to Labour apart from the four currently held by Plaid Cymru.

Labour would return to the House of Commons with a 314 seat majority if an election were tomorrow, the poll projects.

‘Caution’

The poll, Savanta’s first MRP since Labour conference and conducted in conjunction with Electoral Calculus, gives Labour a 20pt voting intention lead which, when converted to seats would more than double the number of MPs they currently have in Westminster.

The poll shows that the Conservative Party would be likely wiped out in much of the north of England, with the model suggesting that the party would not hold a single seat north of Lincolnshire, while also losing all of the seats in London, and conceding many seats in the South West to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

The SNP gain an extra seven seats according to the model, leaving them with all bar four of Scotland’s 59 Westminster constituencies, while the Liberal Democrats would increase their parliamentary representation to their highest level since 2010, including gaining Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton seat.